I don't know if I agree with the Scott's prediction that Trump will be elected the next president. I'd venture to guess that there are a lot more U.S. citizens that are terrified of the idea of having him running the country (Democrats, women, educated youth, anyone of color) than the vocal minority who watches Fox News and loves watching fluffy, circus-style debate as a form of entertainment.
There's no question that America is frustrated with politics and politicians. And Trump plays to that perfectly through anchoring and tone-setting, as Adams astutely observes.
I just can't believe that we'd be desperate/rash enough to elect a guy who will undoubtedly deteriorate US relations with China, Iran, Russia to the point of cold-war nuclear gesturing and whose only published policy recommendations thus far are to revoke citizen status for children born in the US to immigrant parents and to twist Mexico's arm into erecting a 2,000 mile-long anti-immigration wall.
Early polls are somewhat poor predictors -- if pools this far out were reliable, Clinton wouldn't be running, she'd be either a termed out shouting President of a one term ex-President. But if you do trust current polls, Trump's lead among Republicans is a thing, but so is the way he trails all the Democratic contenders he's been looked against in head-to-head polls.
I don't see a lot of reason to believe that the second is any less likely to remain true than the first.
A friend of mine likes to point out that while Trump has a lot of polls with him as their top pick (among the Republican field, I presume), there are far fewer with him as their second or even third pick. As other candidates start to drop out, those that remain will start to gain the "second" and "third" pick supporters while Trump will remain with relatively the same amount of supporters. I think in the end, it will be hard for Trump to keep up the support he has in crowded field against a more narrow field with saner candidates.
> A friend of mine likes to point out that while Trump has a lot of polls with him as their top pick (among the Republican field, I presume), there are far fewer with him as their second or even third pick.
Polls rarely (if ever -- I can't remember ever seeing one that did) actually ask for and track second and later picks, and even if they did, I don't think there is much basis to expect that they are stable and predictive.
> As other candidates start to drop out, those that remain will start to gain the "second" and "third" pick supporters while Trump will remain with relatively the same amount of supporters.
That's not an implausible guess, though the motion since there has been any attention on the race has mostly been from other candidates to Trump.
> I think in the end, it will be hard for Trump to keep up the support he has in crowded field against a more narrow field with saner candidates.
Lots of people -- many of them non-Republicans or Republican establishment figures -- have said things like that, and it may be true, or it may be people projecting their own preferences and perception of what constitutes political "sanity" onto the Republican primary electorate.
Actually, according to the latest CNN/ORC International Poll, Trump is the leader in the second choice polling, as well as first choice. Granted, take early polls with a grain of salt.
I nearly flagged the link for being viciously off-topic, but after a few paragraphs of hyperbolic hysteria Scott Adams settles into a fascinating analysis of the psychology of the successful negotiator/salesman. Worth the read.
Donald Trump is good at energizing the less intellectual part of the GOP, but he will never win. The party brass will pull all the tricks they did against Ron Paul and the American intelligentsia will donate heavily to defeat him if he becomes a serious candidate.
If people are still taking him seriously 2 weeks to Iowa the American political machine will take him out.
Does he need to compete on donations when he has his own billions (debate on amount notwithstanding)? What stops him from funding his own campaign when the remainder of the field are begging for high priced dinner entry fees and donations?
Nothing stops him from funding his own campaign, but the last presidential campaign cost about $5 billion, and most of Trump's money isn't exactly liquid. It's tied up in private corporations and long term deal structures.
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[ 4.0 ms ] story [ 36.2 ms ] threadThere's no question that America is frustrated with politics and politicians. And Trump plays to that perfectly through anchoring and tone-setting, as Adams astutely observes.
I just can't believe that we'd be desperate/rash enough to elect a guy who will undoubtedly deteriorate US relations with China, Iran, Russia to the point of cold-war nuclear gesturing and whose only published policy recommendations thus far are to revoke citizen status for children born in the US to immigrant parents and to twist Mexico's arm into erecting a 2,000 mile-long anti-immigration wall.
I don't see a lot of reason to believe that the second is any less likely to remain true than the first.
Polls rarely (if ever -- I can't remember ever seeing one that did) actually ask for and track second and later picks, and even if they did, I don't think there is much basis to expect that they are stable and predictive.
> As other candidates start to drop out, those that remain will start to gain the "second" and "third" pick supporters while Trump will remain with relatively the same amount of supporters.
That's not an implausible guess, though the motion since there has been any attention on the race has mostly been from other candidates to Trump.
> I think in the end, it will be hard for Trump to keep up the support he has in crowded field against a more narrow field with saner candidates.
Lots of people -- many of them non-Republicans or Republican establishment figures -- have said things like that, and it may be true, or it may be people projecting their own preferences and perception of what constitutes political "sanity" onto the Republican primary electorate.
Citation: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/08/17/rel8a.-.gop.2... on page 9
If people are still taking him seriously 2 weeks to Iowa the American political machine will take him out.