In other news Excel has replaced 1,000s of programmers. So sick of this lame tech worker bias with these "poors" jobs. These posts on HN really reinforce every stereotype toward tech culture. Please stop posting and upvoting this crap.
I read the article carefully, and I didn't see any of the slant you did. It was just an interesting article on how automation is moving deeply into a new field. And, as pmarca has constantly reminded us, once you've got automation, you've got software - and so this is yet another place in which software is eating the world.
This story is the latest confirmation of a worldchanging trend that YC companies (and their ilk) should be thinking about a lot.
Your Excel analogy is apt -- just as a tech investor or startup founder in 1990 needed to be aware of the revolutionary impact programs like Excel were having on the world of business, or one in 2010 needed to be aware of the ways software is eating the world, in 2015 they need to be in touch with the ways mechanization et al are on their way to changing everything.
I wonder if there is some sort of more incremental way to introduce basic minimum income that won't get legislative pushback and will scale with automation.
It should be funded by pollution taxes (all types of pollution, let's not myopically focus on CO2).
The same people who pay the taxes (i.e. everyone) will also get the money, only distributed differently.
The biggest problem will be accounting for pollution embedded in imports, and refunding taxes for exports. Otherwise you will have what's going in on in Germany where they export all their pollution to China.
This story says nothing about your "minimum income" can you at least try to explain how it relates to the story your commenting on. It looks fairly copypasta.
The whole point of BMI is to eliminate those programs and the perverse incentives that come with them (ex: people on CA-TANF are not allowed to have more than $2500 in savings or something.) and replace it with just cutting a cheque.
Despite the impact it has on the availability of unskilled manual labour jobs, I think it's great that machines are finally turning to harvesting - having worked on a similar project to do with grapes (specifically, pruning), it's not always the easiest of things.
It does highlight to me that we are getting closer to the point of needing to rethink labour distribution, because the non-technical jobs are the easiest to replace with machines.
Hasn't that been the case for all of human history? Mass Migration has been a thing for thousands of years. Populations grow and shrink to meet needs of the workforce. The United States was settled by mass immigration mostly manual laborers who had 8 or 9 children per family. Now field labour is a rarity. and family size is 2 to 3 children.
The minuet you think Central planning can override natural market forces you run into much bigger problems that usually end in catastrophe for the people you were trying to 'help'.
> The minuet you think Central planning can override natural market forces you run into much bigger problems that usually end in catastrophe for the people you were trying to 'help'.
Corporations are central planning. Just on a smaller scale. (Though, companies like the old IBM were bigger then some small countries.)
> Corporations are central planning. Just on a smaller scale.
No, they're not. Corporations plan their production and allocate their resources based on market information within their industry in an attempt to capitalize on the market signals they observe.
Central planning is a process by which a central government attempts to control and direct the output of a nation's economy by deciding what to produce and when, ignoring market signals.
Even the people who get replaced get some benefit in that they get access to cheaper food. Not enough to replace their income, but the point is that automation is good for humanity.
Only the Luddites want to smash machines and keep a shirt costing a days wages.
The article describes [anecdotally] that mechanization makes the remaining labourers' work assignments more physically demanding. All the easy pickings go to machines, not humans and people with an already hard workday for low pay has gotten harder as a result of mechanization. The give in the system for low wage workers is systematically being removed in the age of the unlimited time off meme.
Before the machines, just as many humans still had to do that crappy work, they were just a smaller percentage of all the workers. That part didn't make any sense to me. I know this is naive, but maybe with the net cost savings of using machines, the farmers could avoid planting the places that machines can't reach easily.
It's particularly import for people who are legislating minimum wage laws to read articles like this. Most of the legislation I've seen drafted, always has an exception for farm labor - and here is an example why. If you didn't have that exception, then it would quickly become the case that automation/machinery ends up being cheaper (or soon will), and those jobs will vanish pretty quickly.
Now, that might not be entirely undesirable, from the perspective of the legislator (I.E. Move people up the feeding chain to more productive, better paying jobs, and automate the drudge work like raking berries) - but at the very least, they need to be aware of the impact of what they are doing.
Basic income is a bad idea. Idle hands do the devils work. People need to do something or they go crazy. Let's pay people to go to school. Better educated citizens means fewer Donald trumps. Add a consumption tax as well to discourage consumption so our economy can shift away from bullshit jobs.
Plenty of corporate drones, upper middle class, millionaires and billionaires have done the devil's work with 12hr+ work days, they just do it on such a grand scale and under the protection of corporations they are rarely punished.
While moving to a basic income might require a shift in society's values, it's no more likely to cause criminal behavior than the ever increasing income disparity here in the U.S. A basic income would also likely usher in a new age of entrepreneurship once members of all economic classes can entertain the thought of doing work they love rather than forced to take any work they can get.
But I guess it's better to just quote a folklore and pretend the idleness is bad (of course Donal Trump got an education because he could readily afford it, didn't make him less wrong).
No, it won't. The sooner we shift from labor to education as our source of social dignity the better. Let's pay people to go to school rather than to flip burgers.
Its ridiculous that people think the destruction of menial labour will be destructive given all the evidence to the contrary. Jobs have been render obsolete for centuries and the outcome has been an increase in education and skilled labour to do more rewarding jobs.
An exception is small scale local artisanal natural/organic market gardens and family farms that rely on skilled hand labor almost exclusively. You will never and should never consider replacing that with automation and machines. The quality products made available to the public from these operations benefit from the extra attention to detail and experience gained from a lifetime spent in this type of agriculture, sometimes called peasant farming. If you want to know more about peasant sovereignty read the following:
Peasant Sovereignty?
http://www.independentsciencenews.org/environment/peasant-so...
By Evaggelos Vallianatos
See also: http://lists.ibiblio.org/mailman/listinfo/permaculture Permaculture
I would take the opposite perspective - I would think that artisanal/organic gardening, in particular would benefit from automation. Automation will give us the ability to spend significant periods of time on each specific piece of produce, in a way that no human being ever could. In particular, with organic gardening, you can completely eliminate the need for insecticides and pesticides AND not rely on inherently insect/pest resistant produce (which can be innately toxic) by growing in clean rooms.
The key reasons to automate, is it allows us to make this type of food available to masses for fractions of the cost of what it would take for a human to grow it.
Skilled artisanal work is by definition not low paid menial work.
There's nothing wrong with people doing low paid work. Those of us who can't stand it impose our values on others. I worked a lot of manual labor while studying. I worked on mowing crews who spend their lives mowing the same pieces of grass over and over. You'd think they hate it but they were happy to work a low stress, secure job and just do their hobbies in their off time, whether coaching kids or building model railways. Of course that's not everyone but it's wrong to pretend we can walk in everyone's shoes.
Low paid work in some countries may be fine - but in the United States it means that you won't have access to a high quality of health care and will not have quality legal representation (which is important, because if you are impoverished, you are more likely to be imprisoned); hell - you might even have trouble posting bail.
You will have difficultly securing quality education for your children, either because you can't afford private schools, or because you can't afford to live in a location where the public schools are of high quality.
You also are likely to be living pay-check to pay-check (sometimes even less, with pay-check lenders taking their vig), and only a small health-emergency away from becoming bankrupt, and quite possibly homeless.
So, no - I think there's a lot wrong with people doing low paid work. It might be okay for the young, or students, or the retired, but for most adults, low-paid menial work on a prolonged basis in the United States is a financial and personal disaster.
As long as that US system of inequality exists, I suggest we work hard to automate, eliminate, and as quickly as possible banish labor for adults that won't secure them a reasonable living for them and their household. Educate, Train, and move them up the feeding chain to something more sustainable.
>The sooner we shift
from labor to education as our
source of social dignity the better.
Twin studies suggest educational achievement is highly (over 50%) heritable. If you succeeded at replacing labor with education as a source of human dignity it would be surprising if the relative amount of dignity with which one was imparted did not depend on one's educational achievement. Combined with the first point it would lead to the formation of a kind of hereditary estates of the realm; you'd have the clergy (the academics), the nobles (the highly educated) and the commoners (everybody else). Would you find such an outcome acceptable? (Just to be clear, I mean this as a genuine, not rhetorical, question.)
Right, because we all know that Silicon Valley and STEM fields do such a good job hiring the type of minorities who typically work in the fields: "many of today’s rakers are of Latin American or Caribbean origin. Others are Native American or aboriginal people of Canada"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/post/study-...
*Half of all non-Hispanic Asian STEM degree holders go into a STEM job. But the likelihood is lower — 30 percent — among Hispanics and non-Hispanic Black and American Indian and Alaska Native workers
I learnt just as much working low paid jobs while studying as I did in the study. Working with people you don't like, being punctual and responsible, accepting criticism and even nearly getting fired - all good lessons. Paying people to learn is a recipe for misallocation of resources.
Well no. The reason you and I are wealthy enough to pontificate on HN is because we as a society have mechanized most of agriculture. The sooner 100% of the back breaking labor involved in growing food is replaced with machines the better [1].
1. I am not counting home gardens as these are a fun hobby (I miss having a garden).
How anyone can lament the disappearance of back breaking unskilled field work is beyond me. Mechanisation and destruction of repetitive unskilled work is the driving force for the improvement of living standards and the advancement of civilization since the beginning of recorded history. The invention of agrarian civilization itself displaced hunter-gatherer tribes, should we lament the disappearance of nomads also? This romanticism seems a tad silly.
It's because the major proportion of those laborers have little to offer beside manual labor. Therefore as a labor force at a disadvantage, the publication takes the side of the plight of the disadvantaged. Of course a lot of the blame can be placed on the societies who value education too little to educate their population. On the other hand many of the laborers are unprivileged in their home countries as well. So it's also a double whammy for them.
This particular issue is of less concern to American workers and if anything it's a good thing in that no one has to do backbreaking labor. It's like decrying the loss of coal mining --yes, it's a loss for the people losing those jobs, but society as a whole and the labor force as a whole is better off without those kinds of thankless and really hard jobs.
The sad part is that we have unskilled people willing to do these jobs.
I share your concern for the people effected but the notion that these people have little to offer and can not, or will not move up the labor chain does far more harm then good. Most westerners great grand parents were either farm laborers or did some form of back breaking manual labour. The literacy rate was horrible and so forth. I doubt very much these farm workers could not transition into some from of service jobs with very little training. Or some lateral move into other manual labor positions in other parts of the economy.
I hired someone from Mexico on a visa into a 6 figure a year job who's father was literally a farm laborer. He was quite capable to do his job. Expecting nothing from people is a self fulfilling prophecy.
While it's true immigrants in the 19 and early 20th centuries were uneducated, they had a generation or two available to catch up. In today's day and age, they have a few years to adjust to this new reality.
It's true that a good many could transition to other higher level jobs, but at that cost of labor, jobs will go to the domestic labor force. I.e. If I have a job where the going rate is 25/hr, why would I go thru the hoops of sponsorship in one case and on the other hand running afoul of immigration law by hiring a worker who can't legally work? Foreign migrant laborers are on special visas and don't transfer to other sectors.
On the other hand if software is eating the world, I'm sure constituents will want to ensure their system protects their access to jobs over people who are trying to hop into the less worse off system.
So, for example, if Brazil is doing particularly well, I'm sure the citizens will want to fend off workers from places where jobs have eroded more quickly.
Actually, the invention of agriculture was a great tragedy in terms of back breaking unskilled field work. Agriculture did feed more people, but the survivors were worse off.
There have been automated picking machines for almost everything for years, mostly with purely mechanical systems. All the big field crops were mechanized decades ago. Blueberry picking machines have been around for decades. They require flat ground and neat plant rows, though.
Automated strawberry picking is still hard, but Agrobot makes a robotic strawberry picking machine.[1] This is an vision-guided multi-arm robot system, which is rare in agriculture. These more complex machines are still marginal economically, but the electronics can only get cheaper.
56 comments
[ 2.9 ms ] story [ 105 ms ] threadYour Excel analogy is apt -- just as a tech investor or startup founder in 1990 needed to be aware of the revolutionary impact programs like Excel were having on the world of business, or one in 2010 needed to be aware of the ways software is eating the world, in 2015 they need to be in touch with the ways mechanization et al are on their way to changing everything.
The same people who pay the taxes (i.e. everyone) will also get the money, only distributed differently.
The biggest problem will be accounting for pollution embedded in imports, and refunding taxes for exports. Otherwise you will have what's going in on in Germany where they export all their pollution to China.
It does highlight to me that we are getting closer to the point of needing to rethink labour distribution, because the non-technical jobs are the easiest to replace with machines.
The minuet you think Central planning can override natural market forces you run into much bigger problems that usually end in catastrophe for the people you were trying to 'help'.
Corporations are central planning. Just on a smaller scale. (Though, companies like the old IBM were bigger then some small countries.)
No, they're not. Corporations plan their production and allocate their resources based on market information within their industry in an attempt to capitalize on the market signals they observe.
Central planning is a process by which a central government attempts to control and direct the output of a nation's economy by deciding what to produce and when, ignoring market signals.
These are vastly different concepts.
eli_gottlieb sibling-comment is spot on.
Only the Luddites want to smash machines and keep a shirt costing a days wages.
As long as that food is not then exported to consumers who are willing to pay more for it than the poor are able.
Now, that might not be entirely undesirable, from the perspective of the legislator (I.E. Move people up the feeding chain to more productive, better paying jobs, and automate the drudge work like raking berries) - but at the very least, they need to be aware of the impact of what they are doing.
While moving to a basic income might require a shift in society's values, it's no more likely to cause criminal behavior than the ever increasing income disparity here in the U.S. A basic income would also likely usher in a new age of entrepreneurship once members of all economic classes can entertain the thought of doing work they love rather than forced to take any work they can get.
But I guess it's better to just quote a folklore and pretend the idleness is bad (of course Donal Trump got an education because he could readily afford it, didn't make him less wrong).
It will be a shame when such an entry level job is no longer available to teenagers to learn about doing a job and working in a team.
The key reasons to automate, is it allows us to make this type of food available to masses for fractions of the cost of what it would take for a human to grow it.
There's nothing wrong with people doing low paid work. Those of us who can't stand it impose our values on others. I worked a lot of manual labor while studying. I worked on mowing crews who spend their lives mowing the same pieces of grass over and over. You'd think they hate it but they were happy to work a low stress, secure job and just do their hobbies in their off time, whether coaching kids or building model railways. Of course that's not everyone but it's wrong to pretend we can walk in everyone's shoes.
You will have difficultly securing quality education for your children, either because you can't afford private schools, or because you can't afford to live in a location where the public schools are of high quality.
You also are likely to be living pay-check to pay-check (sometimes even less, with pay-check lenders taking their vig), and only a small health-emergency away from becoming bankrupt, and quite possibly homeless.
So, no - I think there's a lot wrong with people doing low paid work. It might be okay for the young, or students, or the retired, but for most adults, low-paid menial work on a prolonged basis in the United States is a financial and personal disaster.
As long as that US system of inequality exists, I suggest we work hard to automate, eliminate, and as quickly as possible banish labor for adults that won't secure them a reasonable living for them and their household. Educate, Train, and move them up the feeding chain to something more sustainable.
Twin studies suggest educational achievement is highly (over 50%) heritable. If you succeeded at replacing labor with education as a source of human dignity it would be surprising if the relative amount of dignity with which one was imparted did not depend on one's educational achievement. Combined with the first point it would lead to the formation of a kind of hereditary estates of the realm; you'd have the clergy (the academics), the nobles (the highly educated) and the commoners (everybody else). Would you find such an outcome acceptable? (Just to be clear, I mean this as a genuine, not rhetorical, question.)
1. I am not counting home gardens as these are a fun hobby (I miss having a garden).
This particular issue is of less concern to American workers and if anything it's a good thing in that no one has to do backbreaking labor. It's like decrying the loss of coal mining --yes, it's a loss for the people losing those jobs, but society as a whole and the labor force as a whole is better off without those kinds of thankless and really hard jobs.
The sad part is that we have unskilled people willing to do these jobs.
I hired someone from Mexico on a visa into a 6 figure a year job who's father was literally a farm laborer. He was quite capable to do his job. Expecting nothing from people is a self fulfilling prophecy.
It's true that a good many could transition to other higher level jobs, but at that cost of labor, jobs will go to the domestic labor force. I.e. If I have a job where the going rate is 25/hr, why would I go thru the hoops of sponsorship in one case and on the other hand running afoul of immigration law by hiring a worker who can't legally work? Foreign migrant laborers are on special visas and don't transfer to other sectors.
So, for example, if Brazil is doing particularly well, I'm sure the citizens will want to fend off workers from places where jobs have eroded more quickly.
We are only now recovering from agriculture.
Automated strawberry picking is still hard, but Agrobot makes a robotic strawberry picking machine.[1] This is an vision-guided multi-arm robot system, which is rare in agriculture. These more complex machines are still marginal economically, but the electronics can only get cheaper.
[1] http://www.wsj.com/video/agrobot-automates-the-work-of-berry...
I think bananas are one of the hardest to automate, but I can't find the old reference I had on this.