The real problem is flagging 0.2% of the population is useless when 0.00001% of the population is terrorists. If everything works perfectly your people end up investigating 1,000 innocent people in a row which trains them that everything is a false positive.
The 9/11 hijackers and the Boston marathon bombers where both flagged yet the attacks still happened in large part because there was simply far to much noise from other people and not enough signal.
This is and instance of the sensitivity and specificity trade offs and it is fundamental. It would be interesting to see some estimated ROC curves for "terrorist" screening approaches...
> The 9/11 hijackers and the Boston marathon bombers where both flagged yet the attacks still happened because there was simply far to much noise and not enough signal.
I've never read that this was a typical "noise":
"NBC News said the Russian intelligence agency FSB cabled the FBI about its concerns in March 2011, warning that Tsarnaev was known to have associated with militant Islamists."
And my argument is that the Boston bomber warning from the Russian authorities doesn't appear like a typical "noise," at last for somebody just reading the news, like me.
I admit I don't know how many such warnings come from Russia, but I doubt it's really something overwhelming, especially compared to collecting every phone record of everybody, if you know more I'm surely interested.
I do not know the internal workings of the FBI but am willing to believe that they are on point enough that such a warning either didn't particularly stand out from others or that it did not get looked at due to a shortage of resources.
"In some European countries is the crime of "religious insult", which is a subset of the crime of blasphemy. It is forbidden in Andorra, Cyprus, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Spain, Finland, Germany, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Norway, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine.[30]"
"The report noted that, in Europe, blasphemy is an offense only in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Italy, Liechtenstein, the Netherlands, and San Marino.[contradiction]"
Human rights be damned as long as the religions teach against them, you can't call a spade a spade. It would be insulting.
I'm quite ashamed to see NL on that list. Really, we should know better than this. But then again, we're also still a monarchy so we have a bit of a history of believing fairy tales.
This case was dropped because of the tremendous backlash but the law is still on the books. I don't recall when was the last time someone was prosecuted for blasphemy.
I think he meant it in the sense that "we have 10,000 other people who are associated with militant Islamits in our database, why should we care about these guys?"
That's the noise he's talking about. The reason you can't "prevent" terrorism, is because there are way too many people who "act a certain way", whatever that way may be. This isn't helped by the fact that agencies like TSA and whatnot have huge lists or vague descriptions of what describes "suspicious behavior" that pretty much cover everyone who goes through the airport.
That's noise. You're giving these agents exponentially more factors to consider that makes it impossible for them to find the real terrorist. It really is "making the haystack bigger" (as a counter-argument to NSA's opinion that mass surveillance helps them "find the needle in the haystack").
Well the article quotes the given number for the list with the given name, so we're technically all on some other list with some other name. But 1 from every 300 US inhabitants is on that specific list.
Which assertions have I claimed that the "interesting" detail supports? Or what should that "interestingly" mean more than the interesting detail?
A million is surely a less expected figure, it's equivalent to 1 of every 300 people across the whole US (!) Now imagine how many people you see in one day in the NY, for example. It's really thought provoking.
Unless you know how many other people FSB cabled the FBI about, and how many other sources of information that the FBI would give similar levels of weight to, you can't properly describe this as noise or not.
We need new laws that address common speech and behavior. We would expand the rules that govern airports and government buildings to enclose everything and everyone always.
“Talking about it in practical terms, the answer is to target the people which you know are up to bad stuff rather than bringing in the 99.8 percent of the inhabitants there, including the vast majority of followers of Islam, who have no intention whatsoever of conducting a terrorist attack,”
Are there any other terms than 'practical'?
Better late than never I guess. What's funny is that this was not exactly new knowledge when the patriot act was drafted in the first place. All these idiotically named acts ('patriot act', 'freedom act') are named that way so that if you're against them it looks as if you're either not a patriot or against freedom.
>>All these idiotically named acts ('patriot act', 'freedom act') are named that way so that if you're against them it looks as if you're either not a patriot or against freedom.
I believe the names of these acts are acronyms:
USA Freedom Act [0] = Uniting and Strengthening America by Fulfilling Rights and Ending Eavesdropping, Dragnet-collection and Online Monitoring Act
USA Patriot Act [1] = Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism
Yes, but you can bet the acronyms were thought of before they named the act. Or do you really believe those acronyms spell 'PATRIOT' and 'FREEDOM' by chance?
See also the 'Supreme Head of Intelligence Targeting'.
After watching this country erode away 1st and 2nd amendment rights with "save the children" arguments, I'm surprised to see people surprised, when they see their 4th amendment rights eroded in the same ways they authorized their 1st and 2nd ones to infringed on.
>> A lead author of the U.S. Patriot Act has some advice for European officials as they wrestle with the balance between personal liberties and security in the wake of the Paris terror attacks
That implies that security is actually achieved through a reduction in liberties, which is obviously not the case.
For example, monitoring the shit out of the general population didn't seem to help prevent the recent spate of shootings in the US.
>> He notes that at the time, a broad range of lawmakers, from security hawks to civil libertarians, voted for the bill
What's a "security hawk"? In light of the developments in the past few years, wouldn't it be more accurate to call them "tyranny hawks"? That would sound kind of unpleasant though.
>> The USA Freedom Act was signed into law in June, and government’s authority for bulk data collection ended this week
But let's not mention that in reality, the legislation did nothing to curtail the surveillance. It's unconstitutional to begin with, so why would any other law be an impediment?
>> Among other things, the prime minister proposed allowing authorities to hold suspects for 72 hours without a warrant and tag extremist young people with electronic tethers. “We must always preserve the balance between safety, freedom and privacy of citizens,” he said.
>> "Showing a mistrust of mainstream media reports and belief in conspiracy theories" [..] "Appearing angry about government policies, especially foreign policy."
So I guess if you're 'mistrustful' of the US government telling you the economy is doing fine, that makes you an "extremist" that should be "tagged with an electronic tether", whatever that might be.
You shouldn't question foreign policy either. For example, clearly the US has done a wonderful job of fighting ISIS, right? To suggest otherwise would be heresy! Don't complain about meddling in other countries' affairs either, or you might find yourself "tagged with an electronic tether"!
Everything in "The Free World" is just doubleplusgood all around.
In my mind, the erosion of privacy and freedom - some of the most vaunted principles of the West - is the ultimate triumph of terrorist organizations like ISIS and Al-Qaeda. They can't beat us by strength of arms, so instead they're stunting our culture.
Yep, its like poisons that kill you by triggering an overreactive histamine response. The body's zealous desire to protect itself is precisely what kills it.
Basically any severe allergic reaction is a histamine response, AFAIK (IANAD). Bee stings, rotten fish, nut allergies, etc. Additionally, there are a large number of ailments that trick the body into attacking itself, like some forms of arthritis, and of course AIDS.
I think that's just a side effect. I don't think terrorists actually care that much about western society. They want to ultimately defeat the west at least ideologically, if not economically and ultimately militarily (in order they can further their own goals)
So it's beside the point to them. Let's say someone wants your money, so in fear, you stop spending your money, stop bringing your wallet with you, the thief doesn't care about that, what they want is to take your money, ultimately.
Noooo. We cannot win the "war on terrorism" while people still have this misconception. The Islamic terrorist don't care about the west at all, their goal is to gain ground in countries with Islamic population. The only reason west got dragged into this war was because AL Quaida were miserably failing at this in the 90s, and so tried to create a common enemy: the west.
I encourage everyone to read more on this topic and the background behind AL Quaida and Isis.
That's an interesting valid point, still, the terrorists don't actually care how we deal with things internally. In other words they are not concerned with our behavioral changes and whether they lead to an erosion of liberty or not. Their only concern is to further their own goals, whatever they be.
If they only care about their world and to further their own goals in the middle east and don't actually care about the west directly (we are a pretext), and don't plan to extend their power beyond their historic influence, how would anything happening in the west be to their benefit?
They already have all their lines of reason to collectively paint the west as an enemy, the west can't be made "double enemy". It's already the enemy, so what benefit is it to them we have self inflicted wounds, unless they have sights on expanding their dominion to the west?
> They already have all their lines of reason to collectively paint the west as an enemy, the west can't be made "double enemy".
Oh, we absolutely can. See, we could be a passive enemy and that would be good for them, but not as good as an enemy that actually engages. That's what drives the spiral of polarization and demonization. Without the spiral it stops at the first level and their recruiting power is reduced accordingly.
But would being a passive enemy simply allow them to run roughshod all over the middle east, consolidate power, disrupt energy resources, cause mass exuduses, unrest, power imbalances, civil factional wars, etc. which one might consider a sizable loss to the west?
> But would being a passive enemy simply allow them to run roughshod all over the middle east, consolidate power, disrupt energy resources, cause mass exuduses, unrest, power imbalances, civil factional wars, etc. which one might consider a sizable loss to the west?
Collectively, the west is what did the destabilizing of the region to begin with. That is what caused them to gain the power that they have now. We created a huge power vacuum because collectively we're not prepared to pay the price for maintaining the structural integrity of the region. Starting this is easy, maintaining an orderly society in a 'western' way that does not want to be an orderly society is a lost cause.
So now we have an entirely new situation. We can choose to escalate but this will - in due course - again require that we commit ourselves to putting large numbers of people in harms way for an extended period, probably on the level that will make the Iraq wars look like Sunday outings on the beach.
> I guess it depends what you mean by passive.
Passive to me means defense, so defend our own turf, let the 'locals' work things out as much as possible without interference other than to accept refugees from the region and to actively aid refugees in leaving these regimes behind.
Leave them their oil wells and weapons but don't buy their oil, don't sell them more weapons (and serious sanctions against those that violate embargoes). Close the borders outbound. And deal with the rotten apples that make it in with the refugees as the criminals that they are.
That's not an easy path, it would lead to a ton of trouble but I believe strongly that it would lead to less trouble than the alternatives.
One of the ways they try to gain support among Muslims, is by ensuring that Muslims feel hated and excluded by us. They want to convince them that there's no future in moderate Islam, they want all Muslims to believe this is an existential battle for them.
So if we exclude Muslims, send refugees back, discriminate, harass and bomb them, we are making ISIS correct in that claim. What we should be doing, is demonstrating that there is a future in moderate Islam. That we accept them as equals, rather than treat them as subhuman.
I agree with you that it's a side-effect and not an intentional thing on their part, but that side-effect is helping them far more with their aim in destroying us ideologically than anything else they've done.
That's because those freedoms work great when members of a society are seeking freedom as an end goal. When the end goal of significant numbers is despotism, collectivism, or hegemonic religious rule, those very freedoms become exploitable weaknesses. As my mom said, "This is why we can't have nice things."
> When the end goal of significant numbers is despotism, collectivism, or hegemonic religious rule, those very freedoms become exploitable weaknesses
Few people hold "despotism, collectivism, or hegemonic religious rule" as end games. Instead, freedom is traded for safety and stability for one's way of life.
You could likewise say that no one holds "freedom" as an endgame, but instead they want things and sexual partners. Freedom is just shorthand for these and many other once-removed concepts.
There very much are people who want hegemonic religious rule as an end game. They spend a lot of time professing that desire and working toward it.
There was an article posted here a few weeks ago, written by a man who was held captive by ISIS for a long time. He said that he learned their ultimate goal has nothing to do with our culture or freedom. They believe armageddon is coming, that it is literaly going to be a big battle in a particular town in Syria near the Turkish border, and that the West is the enemy (descendants of the Roman empire) that their Moslem army must defeat. The terrorist acts are intended to force this battle to commence, which they are confident they will win.
If they really believe this, I'm stunned at how oblivious they are. If an all-out battle really took place, they wouldn't face an army. They'd face an airforce that'd be a lot more aggressive than the one they're currently facing. The US and Russia could turn Syria into a sheet of radioactive glass if they wanted to / had to in order to "win armageddon". The only reason ISIS is able to continue to exist is because of our tolerance and compassion.
IS never really threatened U.S. or Western interests, the Paris attacks were the first time they reached so far. They (along with the Syrian regime) have been butchering Syrians by the thousands.
Btw, the Daesh captive was Nicolas Henin, and he's actively campaigning against airstrikes [1] as that's exactly playing into their sick plans.
And he speaks that they're deluded enough to think they'll find support despite their inhumane acts. Muslims despise Daesh, heck the orthodox the individual their hatred for these individuals deepens.[2]
[2] Source: My family and friends, I'm a Muslim born in the holy city of Makkah, no one I know doesn't actively despise Daesh and their kind. Most of us identify more with western values.
Do literally all Muslims despise the IS? After thousands of Turkish football fans starting chanting "allahu akbar" during the minute of silence for the Paris attacks, I would not agree. Who are the Muslims that support the IS?
TL;DR: Cultural difference. In Turkey, the "moment of silence" is used to chant for those who died in the attacks. They were not saying "Allahu Akbar", they were saying “Şehitler ölmez, vatan bölünmez”.
Translation: “Martyrs, they do not die (they are immortal), homeland (land, our land) is indivisible." Those who die in the attacks are considered martyrs, not those responsible. "Homeland" in this instance would be considered France.
Coming to your final point, every Muslim I know whether they practice or not hates terrorists. Earlier (those in rural regions) they had been fed propaganda that these were freedom fighters who had been discredited as terrorists since they were seen as fighting western aggression and invaders. Once they were shown instances of Marines/U.S. Army helping out/rescuing civilians in war-torn countries their entire perception is overturned, first it's disbelief that they would help the civilians, and later they understand that they're just humans looking for a better world as well and had only been doing their duty, and that countries & civilians pay the price for their leaders' arrogance & sins.
I am (white, Christian) French. I don't support the "minute" of silence. It means there is a full range of opinions which lead one to not recognizing the minute of silence. I'll detail my opinion for an example, but many other opinions must be respected too.
1. We don't do a minute of silence for 300 ppl per month who die in car accidents. Nor for 200 per fortnight for passive second hand smoking. The characteristics are the same: They're innocent, they're taken away suddenly in atrocious conditions, and they're taken at random.
2. A minute of silence, whether you like it or not, is a political gesture. The more we do a minute of silence, the less there will be opposition to repressive actions by the gouvernent. Look: the law says the Etat d'Urgence is limited to 15 days, they've extended it to 3 months and they want to extend it to a Permanent Etat d'Urgence.
3. We don't listen to terrorists. They may be protesting against very legitimate things with a very similar number of crimes. As a citizen of the occident, I am collectively responsible for Guantanamo and Irak and Palestine and all wars that have destroyed the future of youngsters in those countries. Who's to say I should do a minute of silence for the French and not for the Palestinians or Iraqis who have been subjected to torture?
4. A minute of silence will encourage France to perform war. Terrorism cannot be won with war. We're just destroying someone's land in a country where I don't know the cultural situation. 100% sure we are creating tomorrow's terrorists.
5. Those terrorists? They were born in France. It's a failure of our social system. We are racist, we don't give them enough future economically. I once was an Australian immigrant: When there's huge bucks to be made, there's no time for subversion.
6. France is in economic dismay. Hence the difficulty of the youth to earn enough for an optimistic living. Hence please don't send an aircraft carrier, we're digging our debt, if not or grave. With two billions, let's hire teachers and lower our taxes on wages so we can get more jobs.
7. Let's not give the terrorists what they wanted: Everyone is impressed by the violence, so during the next 10 years well start to think it's normal that all concert halls have to have x-more entrances. Those will have a huge cost on culture. We'll say it's normal to implement stringent security measures, without looking at the cost. I bet people will even use it as an excuse for everything: "Because of security measure, you are required to ditch your bottle of water, pay per card, hire the official coach instead of walking there, ...". A minute of silence today, and during 15 years any objection to everyday security will be frowned upon.
I don't support the terrorists. But I don't support government-sponsored minutes of silence either. And I say this as a white, male, French, conservatist person.
I didn't read the article, but my gut instinct would be that the people this man was held captive by were foot soldiers. They are frequently illiterate people who are fed such "prophecies" as truth.
I do contend with your statement about ISIS continuing to exist because of western compassion. If the West had the means to destroy them (without harming millions of innocent civilians), the compassionate thing to do would be to do it ASAP.
But that little caveat means putting a large number of our own people at risk and this is where we lack fortitude. That is what resulted in the Iraq mess, which in turn led to IS gaining a foothold.
Yes, that's exactly what I meant. The cold-hearted decision would be to count those civilians as acceptable losses, and just carpet-bomb the whole area.
> If the West had the means to destroy them (without harming millions of innocent civilians), the compassionate thing to do would be to do it ASAP.
That exactly what the west thought they could do in Afghanistan and Iraq, and it turned out that it is a lot more complex than, well, a lot of smart people expected.
That said, were western militaries not still smarting from those wars, there would probably have been boots on the ground a long time ago, in the hope of some sort of Balkan-war outcome.
That being their end game really isn't even a big secret, Cracked.com (of all people) did a really good piece on this after one of their journalists read the back issues of ISIS' official magazine.
I'll also submit that The Powers That Be have learned it sucks to create a power vacuum and deal with the fallout (see: Iraq, Afghanistan for examples)
The developed nations' abilities to crush a military opponent doesn't solve all problems, something we've been aware of for a long while and had recent reinforcing lessons.
I know the US had strong roles in rebuilding both Japanese and German governments post-WWII, but those were both circumstances that were dramatically different than this. (And, since HN has lots of informed people, some of whom are doubtless facepalming at my statements, I'd love to see some resources that describe those efforts with some depth and hopefully not a one-sided view of things, just for my own enlightenment)
During WWII, we engaged in all-out war against Japan and Germany, and devastated both countries to the limit of our technical ability. Had the Japanese government not surrendered after the atomic bombs, we would have continued dropping them until there was no one left. We were already fire-bombing cities at that point, despite the huge number of civilian casualties.
After the war, Japan still had a functioning government which the US had a stranglehold on for years during reconstruction. Germany's government was wiped out and replaced with two puppet states for a long time as well. We were truly imperialistic then, having invaded and taken control of those countries until they were stable enough to run themselves. (Or couldn't be held anymore, in the case of East Germany.)
We didn't do it that way in Iraq and Afghanistan. Years of bad outcomes with cold-war-era puppet governments got us away from that approach, and instead we tried to set up locally-run governments that were allies but not subservient. But that didn't work so well either. Maybe we let them go too soon, or maybe the population wasn't beaten down enough by the war, the way Germany and Japan were, to just accept any government so long as it stops the devastation.
For comparison, the population of Germany in 1939 was about 70 million according to <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany#Statis.... And according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_casualties_in_World_War... there were somewhere between 4.3 to 5.3 million military deaths, somewhere between 500k to 2 million civilian deaths due to some of the Soviet end-war and post-war shenanigans, another 350k to 600k civilian deaths due to Allied bombing. Let's call it 5 million all told on the low end. That's 1 in 14. And due to the fraction of this that were military, the resulting demographic distribution has some interesting features. See <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Germany_sex_by_age_1950_1.... In particular, note the deep notch in the 30-35 demographic that would have been born during World War 1 and the large differences between numbers of males and females in all the 20-30 age group.
So one difference is that a larger fraction of the population was dead, and a significantly larger fraction of the "young male" demographic that tends to do things like fight back against the occupier as opposed to going on with life. People were just _tired_ of fighting, effectively.
Another difference was the massive aid/rebuilding program financed via the Marshall Plan.
And I suspect a final difference was a much smaller feeling of "us vs them" or "we're fundamentally different", on both sides....
> He said that he learned their ultimate goal has nothing to do with our culture or freedom. They believe armageddon is coming, that it is literaly going to be a big battle in a particular town in Syria near the Turkish border, and that the West is the enemy (descendants of the Roman empire) that their Moslem army must defeat.
While I don't doubt that that is what was revealed to him while he was captive, I will note that there are three potentially very different things that that could be, that can be very hard to distinguish:
1) The actual goals of the Daesh leadership,
2) The propaganda the Daesh leadership uses to motivate its foot soldiers,
3) Deliberate fabrications presented by captors to captives for propaganda, misinformation, or other purposes.
effectively playing a similar game as being played out on college campuses, forcing the establish of safe spaces. Safe from freedom and rarely anything else.
Erosion of privacy and freedom is inevitable. Mass human breeding on earth puts so much pressure on all aspects of our existence. I believe this will necessarily lead to reduced freedom as mere survival becomes more important. Small groups of people or even individuals have so much power and can inflict terrifying damage. How else do you solve such a problem? At the end of the day, people will demand the problem is solved.
Raising the lowest education level and the lowest happiness level would go a long way. i.e. a society that genuinely looks after and educates everyone. Easier said than done though.
You're absolutely right. I'm kind of pessimistic these days about the future.. Education the critical thing we need to even start moving in the right direction.
ISIS and AlQaeda aren't the ones taking freedom from the west. Similar organizations have existed for hundreds of years without such impact. If it wasn't ISIS it would be something else. The source of erosion is internal. So too is the blame.
Good luck trying to fix the source of the problem when information spreads as quickly as it does today. Any attempt to put terrorist attacks in perspective, or to calm people's reactions, is met with knee-jerk "How dare you" responses.
That's why we have so many mechanisms to slow official reactions. We know that, as humans, we are prone to rash decisions in the face of crisis. Even the patriot act contains a sunset provision, an internal recognition that it was likely a knee-jerk reaction to fear. But the renewal of that provision is not a rash decision, nor is it taken by ISIS. The decision to keep the Patriot Act alive year after year is a cold political calculation divorced from any immediate crisis.
"Similar organizations have existed for hundreds of years"
So have done the internal source of erosion, is just they now have the technological capacities. In absence of a strong social movement against, this doesn't look well for the future.
Take a look at britain in the 50s, or the US in the 60s. Speech was more heavily stymied then than it is today. It cost more to do so, but governments then still tracked people's activity. If anything, today's technology allows us to recognize and react to such behaviour whereas previous generations remained unaware.
I have always found it rather hard to believe that Islamists would dedicate their entire lives to eroding your privacy. It always seemed like #1 an extremely egocentric worldview and #2 completely not in fitting with their style.
From the article: "In France, the current state of emergency, which lawmakers quickly agreed to extend for three months, allows authorities to raid homes without warrants. The country’s interior minister said Wednesday that since November 13, French authorities have conducted 2,235 searches and arrested 263 people."
Jim Sensenbrenner is the last person who should be lecturing on dragnet surveillance. He was one of the writers of the PATRIOT Act, then failed to attend any classified briefings where the NSA explained what they were doing with the phone records program. He later went on to admit that he didn't attend them because didn't want to have to deal with the burden of handling classified information[2]. He had at least six opportunities to hear exactly what was going on, voice his dissent and put forth legislation to curtail it. Instead he put the laws into place then shirked his duty to provide any oversight, somehow proud of the fact that he was legislating from a position of willful ignorance. That kind of behavior is exactly what the EU should be warned about.
Did Sensenbrenner really believe that the PATRIOT act was a good idea at the time? I can't understand how that's possible. It was known from the start to be a horrid power grab.
The only explanation I can comprehend is that he know how deceptive and abusive the law was, buy he promoted when a Republican was president, and he doesn't like it now that Democrat is in power.
82 comments
[ 4.6 ms ] story [ 135 ms ] threadThe 9/11 hijackers and the Boston marathon bombers where both flagged yet the attacks still happened in large part because there was simply far to much noise from other people and not enough signal.
I've never read that this was a typical "noise":
"NBC News said the Russian intelligence agency FSB cabled the FBI about its concerns in March 2011, warning that Tsarnaev was known to have associated with militant Islamists."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-explosions-boston-cong...
I admit I don't know how many such warnings come from Russia, but I doubt it's really something overwhelming, especially compared to collecting every phone record of everybody, if you know more I'm surely interested.
But, the attack still happened. Which points to a wider issue, sure he was suspicious, but then what?
That's exactly the question to which Europe also searches for the answer now.
One of the reasons everybody bends over backwards to avoid saying anything against the religions in different countries is:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blasphemy_law
"In some European countries is the crime of "religious insult", which is a subset of the crime of blasphemy. It is forbidden in Andorra, Cyprus, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Spain, Finland, Germany, Greece, Italy, Lithuania, Norway, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Switzerland, Turkey and Ukraine.[30]"
"The report noted that, in Europe, blasphemy is an offense only in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Italy, Liechtenstein, the Netherlands, and San Marino.[contradiction]"
Human rights be damned as long as the religions teach against them, you can't call a spade a spade. It would be insulting.
For example, only recently did my state repeal some stupid laws, removing them from the state code:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/20/it-s-almost...
Still, it was big news 15 years ago when someone was prosecuted under the swearing law, and the courts eventually tossed the law:
http://lubbockonline.com/stories/040102/upd_075-8555.shtml
I label that unsurprising inertia more than I label it embarrassing.
http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2015/05/f-the-king-dem...
This case was dropped because of the tremendous backlash but the law is still on the books. I don't recall when was the last time someone was prosecuted for blasphemy.
That's the noise he's talking about. The reason you can't "prevent" terrorism, is because there are way too many people who "act a certain way", whatever that way may be. This isn't helped by the fact that agencies like TSA and whatnot have huge lists or vague descriptions of what describes "suspicious behavior" that pretty much cover everyone who goes through the airport.
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20141024/14222128933/guide...
That's noise. You're giving these agents exponentially more factors to consider that makes it impossible for them to find the real terrorist. It really is "making the haystack bigger" (as a counter-argument to NSA's opinion that mass surveillance helps them "find the needle in the haystack").
"And for who even Russians spent their energy to notify us"?
I'd expect that most of the 10,000 others aren't on the list because Russians notify the FBI. Or you know more than I do, and I'd be glad to learn.
Or maybe the warning was ignored because of the Tsarnaev's uncle?
http://backchannel.al-monitor.com/index.php/2013/04/5090/for...
Interestingly, the "Terrorist Watch List" reached 1 million in 2009:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/washington/2009-03-10-wa...
It seems your estimate was two orders of magnitude off.
This doesn't strengthen your assertions.
> This doesn't strengthen your assertions
Which assertions have I claimed that the "interesting" detail supports? Or what should that "interestingly" mean more than the interesting detail?
A million is surely a less expected figure, it's equivalent to 1 of every 300 people across the whole US (!) Now imagine how many people you see in one day in the NY, for example. It's really thought provoking.
We need new laws that address common speech and behavior. We would expand the rules that govern airports and government buildings to enclose everything and everyone always.
Are there any other terms than 'practical'?
Better late than never I guess. What's funny is that this was not exactly new knowledge when the patriot act was drafted in the first place. All these idiotically named acts ('patriot act', 'freedom act') are named that way so that if you're against them it looks as if you're either not a patriot or against freedom.
I believe the names of these acts are acronyms:
USA Freedom Act [0] = Uniting and Strengthening America by Fulfilling Rights and Ending Eavesdropping, Dragnet-collection and Online Monitoring Act
USA Patriot Act [1] = Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USA_Freedom_Act [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriot_Act
See also the 'Supreme Head of Intelligence Targeting'.
>> A lead author of the U.S. Patriot Act has some advice for European officials as they wrestle with the balance between personal liberties and security in the wake of the Paris terror attacks
That implies that security is actually achieved through a reduction in liberties, which is obviously not the case.
For example, monitoring the shit out of the general population didn't seem to help prevent the recent spate of shootings in the US.
>> He notes that at the time, a broad range of lawmakers, from security hawks to civil libertarians, voted for the bill
What's a "security hawk"? In light of the developments in the past few years, wouldn't it be more accurate to call them "tyranny hawks"? That would sound kind of unpleasant though.
>> The USA Freedom Act was signed into law in June, and government’s authority for bulk data collection ended this week
But let's not mention that in reality, the legislation did nothing to curtail the surveillance. It's unconstitutional to begin with, so why would any other law be an impediment?
>> Among other things, the prime minister proposed allowing authorities to hold suspects for 72 hours without a warrant and tag extremist young people with electronic tethers. “We must always preserve the balance between safety, freedom and privacy of citizens,” he said.
Extremist young people, you say? Here's the UK government's helpful advisory on what that might entail: http://www.cscb-new.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/CSCB_Ra...
>> "Showing a mistrust of mainstream media reports and belief in conspiracy theories" [..] "Appearing angry about government policies, especially foreign policy."
So I guess if you're 'mistrustful' of the US government telling you the economy is doing fine, that makes you an "extremist" that should be "tagged with an electronic tether", whatever that might be.
You shouldn't question foreign policy either. For example, clearly the US has done a wonderful job of fighting ISIS, right? To suggest otherwise would be heresy! Don't complain about meddling in other countries' affairs either, or you might find yourself "tagged with an electronic tether"!
Everything in "The Free World" is just doubleplusgood all around.
So it's beside the point to them. Let's say someone wants your money, so in fear, you stop spending your money, stop bringing your wallet with you, the thief doesn't care about that, what they want is to take your money, ultimately.
I encourage everyone to read more on this topic and the background behind AL Quaida and Isis.
Yes, but we don't actually have to help them to further their goals.
They already have all their lines of reason to collectively paint the west as an enemy, the west can't be made "double enemy". It's already the enemy, so what benefit is it to them we have self inflicted wounds, unless they have sights on expanding their dominion to the west?
Oh, we absolutely can. See, we could be a passive enemy and that would be good for them, but not as good as an enemy that actually engages. That's what drives the spiral of polarization and demonization. Without the spiral it stops at the first level and their recruiting power is reduced accordingly.
I guess it depends what you mean by passive.
Collectively, the west is what did the destabilizing of the region to begin with. That is what caused them to gain the power that they have now. We created a huge power vacuum because collectively we're not prepared to pay the price for maintaining the structural integrity of the region. Starting this is easy, maintaining an orderly society in a 'western' way that does not want to be an orderly society is a lost cause.
So now we have an entirely new situation. We can choose to escalate but this will - in due course - again require that we commit ourselves to putting large numbers of people in harms way for an extended period, probably on the level that will make the Iraq wars look like Sunday outings on the beach.
> I guess it depends what you mean by passive.
Passive to me means defense, so defend our own turf, let the 'locals' work things out as much as possible without interference other than to accept refugees from the region and to actively aid refugees in leaving these regimes behind.
Leave them their oil wells and weapons but don't buy their oil, don't sell them more weapons (and serious sanctions against those that violate embargoes). Close the borders outbound. And deal with the rotten apples that make it in with the refugees as the criminals that they are.
That's not an easy path, it would lead to a ton of trouble but I believe strongly that it would lead to less trouble than the alternatives.
So if we exclude Muslims, send refugees back, discriminate, harass and bomb them, we are making ISIS correct in that claim. What we should be doing, is demonstrating that there is a future in moderate Islam. That we accept them as equals, rather than treat them as subhuman.
Few people hold "despotism, collectivism, or hegemonic religious rule" as end games. Instead, freedom is traded for safety and stability for one's way of life.
There very much are people who want hegemonic religious rule as an end game. They spend a lot of time professing that desire and working toward it.
If they really believe this, I'm stunned at how oblivious they are. If an all-out battle really took place, they wouldn't face an army. They'd face an airforce that'd be a lot more aggressive than the one they're currently facing. The US and Russia could turn Syria into a sheet of radioactive glass if they wanted to / had to in order to "win armageddon". The only reason ISIS is able to continue to exist is because of our tolerance and compassion.
"What ISIS Really Wants" http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isi...
IS never really threatened U.S. or Western interests, the Paris attacks were the first time they reached so far. They (along with the Syrian regime) have been butchering Syrians by the thousands.
Btw, the Daesh captive was Nicolas Henin, and he's actively campaigning against airstrikes [1] as that's exactly playing into their sick plans.
And he speaks that they're deluded enough to think they'll find support despite their inhumane acts. Muslims despise Daesh, heck the orthodox the individual their hatred for these individuals deepens.[2]
[1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/02/nicolas-henin-v...
[2] Source: My family and friends, I'm a Muslim born in the holy city of Makkah, no one I know doesn't actively despise Daesh and their kind. Most of us identify more with western values.
http://www.101greatgoals.com/blog/an-explanation-for-why-tur...
TL;DR: Cultural difference. In Turkey, the "moment of silence" is used to chant for those who died in the attacks. They were not saying "Allahu Akbar", they were saying “Şehitler ölmez, vatan bölünmez”.
Translation: “Martyrs, they do not die (they are immortal), homeland (land, our land) is indivisible." Those who die in the attacks are considered martyrs, not those responsible. "Homeland" in this instance would be considered France.
Coming to your final point, every Muslim I know whether they practice or not hates terrorists. Earlier (those in rural regions) they had been fed propaganda that these were freedom fighters who had been discredited as terrorists since they were seen as fighting western aggression and invaders. Once they were shown instances of Marines/U.S. Army helping out/rescuing civilians in war-torn countries their entire perception is overturned, first it's disbelief that they would help the civilians, and later they understand that they're just humans looking for a better world as well and had only been doing their duty, and that countries & civilians pay the price for their leaders' arrogance & sins.
1. We don't do a minute of silence for 300 ppl per month who die in car accidents. Nor for 200 per fortnight for passive second hand smoking. The characteristics are the same: They're innocent, they're taken away suddenly in atrocious conditions, and they're taken at random.
2. A minute of silence, whether you like it or not, is a political gesture. The more we do a minute of silence, the less there will be opposition to repressive actions by the gouvernent. Look: the law says the Etat d'Urgence is limited to 15 days, they've extended it to 3 months and they want to extend it to a Permanent Etat d'Urgence.
3. We don't listen to terrorists. They may be protesting against very legitimate things with a very similar number of crimes. As a citizen of the occident, I am collectively responsible for Guantanamo and Irak and Palestine and all wars that have destroyed the future of youngsters in those countries. Who's to say I should do a minute of silence for the French and not for the Palestinians or Iraqis who have been subjected to torture?
4. A minute of silence will encourage France to perform war. Terrorism cannot be won with war. We're just destroying someone's land in a country where I don't know the cultural situation. 100% sure we are creating tomorrow's terrorists.
5. Those terrorists? They were born in France. It's a failure of our social system. We are racist, we don't give them enough future economically. I once was an Australian immigrant: When there's huge bucks to be made, there's no time for subversion.
6. France is in economic dismay. Hence the difficulty of the youth to earn enough for an optimistic living. Hence please don't send an aircraft carrier, we're digging our debt, if not or grave. With two billions, let's hire teachers and lower our taxes on wages so we can get more jobs.
7. Let's not give the terrorists what they wanted: Everyone is impressed by the violence, so during the next 10 years well start to think it's normal that all concert halls have to have x-more entrances. Those will have a huge cost on culture. We'll say it's normal to implement stringent security measures, without looking at the cost. I bet people will even use it as an excuse for everything: "Because of security measure, you are required to ditch your bottle of water, pay per card, hire the official coach instead of walking there, ...". A minute of silence today, and during 15 years any objection to everyday security will be frowned upon.
I don't support the terrorists. But I don't support government-sponsored minutes of silence either. And I say this as a white, male, French, conservatist person.
I do contend with your statement about ISIS continuing to exist because of western compassion. If the West had the means to destroy them (without harming millions of innocent civilians), the compassionate thing to do would be to do it ASAP.
But that little caveat means putting a large number of our own people at risk and this is where we lack fortitude. That is what resulted in the Iraq mess, which in turn led to IS gaining a foothold.
When the GP speaks of compassion, I think (s)he is referring to the millions of civilians there, not the fighters.
That exactly what the west thought they could do in Afghanistan and Iraq, and it turned out that it is a lot more complex than, well, a lot of smart people expected.
That said, were western militaries not still smarting from those wars, there would probably have been boots on the ground a long time ago, in the hope of some sort of Balkan-war outcome.
The developed nations' abilities to crush a military opponent doesn't solve all problems, something we've been aware of for a long while and had recent reinforcing lessons.
I know the US had strong roles in rebuilding both Japanese and German governments post-WWII, but those were both circumstances that were dramatically different than this. (And, since HN has lots of informed people, some of whom are doubtless facepalming at my statements, I'd love to see some resources that describe those efforts with some depth and hopefully not a one-sided view of things, just for my own enlightenment)
After the war, Japan still had a functioning government which the US had a stranglehold on for years during reconstruction. Germany's government was wiped out and replaced with two puppet states for a long time as well. We were truly imperialistic then, having invaded and taken control of those countries until they were stable enough to run themselves. (Or couldn't be held anymore, in the case of East Germany.)
We didn't do it that way in Iraq and Afghanistan. Years of bad outcomes with cold-war-era puppet governments got us away from that approach, and instead we tried to set up locally-run governments that were allies but not subservient. But that didn't work so well either. Maybe we let them go too soon, or maybe the population wasn't beaten down enough by the war, the way Germany and Japan were, to just accept any government so long as it stops the devastation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Iraq_War estimates between 150k and 1 million dead. That's out of a total population of 32 million or so according to <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Iraq>, so somewhere between 1 in 200 and 1 in 30 killed.
For comparison, the population of Germany in 1939 was about 70 million according to <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Germany#Statis.... And according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_casualties_in_World_War... there were somewhere between 4.3 to 5.3 million military deaths, somewhere between 500k to 2 million civilian deaths due to some of the Soviet end-war and post-war shenanigans, another 350k to 600k civilian deaths due to Allied bombing. Let's call it 5 million all told on the low end. That's 1 in 14. And due to the fraction of this that were military, the resulting demographic distribution has some interesting features. See <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Germany_sex_by_age_1950_1.... In particular, note the deep notch in the 30-35 demographic that would have been born during World War 1 and the large differences between numbers of males and females in all the 20-30 age group.
So one difference is that a larger fraction of the population was dead, and a significantly larger fraction of the "young male" demographic that tends to do things like fight back against the occupier as opposed to going on with life. People were just _tired_ of fighting, effectively.
Another difference was the massive aid/rebuilding program financed via the Marshall Plan.
And I suspect a final difference was a much smaller feeling of "us vs them" or "we're fundamentally different", on both sides....
While I don't doubt that that is what was revealed to him while he was captive, I will note that there are three potentially very different things that that could be, that can be very hard to distinguish:
1) The actual goals of the Daesh leadership,
2) The propaganda the Daesh leadership uses to motivate its foot soldiers,
3) Deliberate fabrications presented by captors to captives for propaganda, misinformation, or other purposes.
It's trivial for us to say no, and yet we don't.
So have done the internal source of erosion, is just they now have the technological capacities. In absence of a strong social movement against, this doesn't look well for the future.
[1] http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/patriot-act-architect-cries-foul-...
[2] https://www.lawfareblog.com/shameless-revisionism-james-sens...
The only explanation I can comprehend is that he know how deceptive and abusive the law was, buy he promoted when a Republican was president, and he doesn't like it now that Democrat is in power.