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Ask HN: A simple, low-tech way to reduce the package theft problem from homes?

16 points by DrScump ↗ HN
... or am I missing something?

Perhaps this problem is not common in your area, but here and in many urban/suburban settings in California, there is a huge problem with delivered packages being stolen from doorways and porches.

In many cases, thieve(s) simply follow delivery trucks (UPS, FedEx, USPS) and pluck packages shortly after delivery. But it seems to me that there is a simple mechanism that would limit the other, more-common cases of trolling neighborhoods for left packages.

What if everybody left a dummy package outside their door? For example, a simple box with a bogus label and weighty contents would do the trick; ideally, a box with retail branding (such as Amazon or others with recognizable logo). (I am not suggesting anything toxic or dangerous, just worthless stuff that provides an appropriate look and feel.)

Am I missing something? If such a simple countermeasure was widely practiced, the sheer risk ratio could at least provide a low-cost deterrent.

Obviously, the better solution would be bait packages with tracking devices that would alert law enforcement when moved and serve as probable cause for searches... but in my area, at least, property crime generally gets no attention from law enforcement.

59 comments

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greenyoda
Your solution itself is very simple, but getting everyone in a neighborhood to agree to put out fake packages is very difficult.

Also, a cardboard box that's left outside as a decoy for several days would soon deteriorate, and would need to be replaced in order to look realistic (a soggy old box on a dry day wouldn't be convincing). If someone doesn't order merchandise by mail, they would (1) have little incentive to participate in this activity and (2) have no ready source of cardboard boxes to do it with even if they wanted to.

OmarIsmail
Low tech but not low cost - move.
dkraft
to a condo with concierge
lowglow
Just have them delivered to your office, or have them hold the packages at the post office?
clarry
Everyone has an office? Nope.

Couriers here refuse to leave a parcel at the post office. Couriers are such a pain..

Even if it works for me, the post office isn't a good choice for everybody. It might be a long distance away. Enjoy walking 10 kilometers (or more) while carrying a big, heavy package for half the trip?

reustle
This makes me think about low tech solutions to the problem. What about a simple box (maybe 1 meter cube) that is unlocked until it is closed. Once closed, it must be opened with a key. A simple plate on the top can explain to the delivery man to place close the door when a package is placed inside, not very complicated. It doesn't scale to >1 package a day, but it is something.
monk_e_boy
Just an open padlock and a note to the delivery person to snap it shut when the parcel is in the box.
jackweirdy
But then you could tell from looking at the box whether there was anything in there (if it's locked, it's got something). Probably enough to deter an opportunist, but a determined thief might bring bolt cutters (or just take the box)
x1798DE
If people are following around UPS trucks, they already know if something is in there, right? The bigger problem with the plan to me is what happens if you get two packages on the same day?
reustle
If someone is bringing bolt cutters to snatch your package, you have bigger problems. I guarantee most of the people doing these box snatches are looking for quick, easy victims.
lmartel
Here's what you're missing: I do a lot of online shopping, but packages getting stolen have cost me, personally, $0. Your proposal would cost me > $0. Why should I participate?
coke12
There's a few benefits that a solution could provide: (1) protection from weather like rain or strong wind; (2) protection from nosey neighbors finding out about sensitive deliveries; (3) long-term storage for deliveries when you're on vacation; and (4) protection from theft.
gusmd
I understand that this might be how you feel since the seller probably has refunded missing packages. Now please consider that the added cost to the seller has already been factored in on all your purchases. Therefore, if there were no stolen packages, your purchases would have been cheaper. Does that change how you feel about it?
calciphus
Loss from package theft from doorsteps is still less than retail shrinkage. It's difficult to get exact numbers, but even in densely populated areas it's unlikely to reach the retail shrinkage of 1.44%.

If package theft decreased from, say...1% to 0.1%, that would not substantially impact price on the micro scale.

gusmd
That's pretty much a 0.9% reduction on overall costs to the seller. Most credit cards offer 1% cashback and people love it, so I will dare to say that a 1% price reduction is very interesting.
craigds
Is this actually a real problem or just an imagined one? Anyway don't couriers normally require recipient signature? If a courier left a package on my doorstep in NZ I'd probably complain.
M4v3R
I think it's mainly a US thing. Here in Poland it's also unheard of that courier would leave the package unattended on the doorstep, because recipient's signature is required.
saulr
Always found this problem quite interesting. In the UK, parcels are rarely if ever left on the porch. If you aren't in there's a few options: a) they deliver it to a neighbour and post a card through your door saying "it's been left at number X"; b) they leave it in a safe space (typically throw it over your garden fence); or c) return it to the delivery office for you to specify when to redeliver or pick it up yourself.

Can anyone shed any light as to why (a) doesn't seem to be used in the US?

idunno246
The not delivered slip has that option, but ive never had it used, but c) is often used. In suburbs theres really not much problem just leaving it by the door, in the city theres not really a clear neighbor. also, nobody else is home during the day, and if youre a delivery driver its probably better for your schedule to not deliver it than go searching for someone.
cperciva
Most people don't know who their neighbours are, never mind trusting them with their packages.
monk_e_boy
Just knock on their door and say hello ;) But we take in parcels for our neighbours and they do the same for us. If the postman leaves a notes saying it's at no. X, if we turned up at no. X and ask for it - what could they say? "Oh we stole it" it makes no sense. Plus I live next door to them, who would fuck with their neighbours? There are easier ways to steal stuff.
pbhjpbhj
We take parcels in for people we don't know (UK). Why do you need to know them?

Yes parcels sometimes go missing (suspected stolen) but delivery drivers have a pretty good idea where not to leave packages if they care.

philrykoff
Same here in germany. If the neighbor accepts the package, the parcel service notes his/her name on the receipt, so the responsibility has been handed to the neighbor.

If the neighbor "looses" the package, the loss can be enforced against him.

One alternative is to allow the parcel service to put the parcel in a safe space (e.g. throw it over the fence ;). Only if you allow the parcel service to do that, they will do it, because only then they are not responsibly for what happens to the package once they've put it in the "safe space".

The best invention in parcel servicing over the last few years are so called Packstationen (package stations), big cupboards with large lockable compartments. The parcel service places the packages there, sends you a text with a mobile TAN, you get the package from there whenever you have time (within the next 2 weeks or so, then it's being sent back). They are placed all over larger towns.

chipperyman573
a. People don't know/trust their neighbors enough for that. In fact, in a lot of places it'd be safer just to leave it on the porch.

b. If someone threw a package over my fence and risked breaking it I'd be pretty pissed.

c. They do that sometimes but in my opinion I'd rather risk having it stolen than have to go to the post office, it's a huge hassle and there's always a line.

GameTheory8
An easy way to think about this (for me at least) would be to think in terms of transferring liability to another party.

Who's responsible for the package/order when the package gets left with the neighbor? Would the liability/loss transfer to the customer if the package goes missing when the neighbor supposedly has/had it?

If you're a seller on Amazon/eBay and shipped the package yourself, the liability of the total value of the package is with the seller, unless you purchase insurance or signature tracking information.

For packages 13+ ounces (0.36+ kg), USPS automatically provides insurance up to $50 when sending packages Priority Mail (w/restrictions): http://pe.usps.gov/text/dmm300/609.htm

gorbachev
c) doesn't work, because the companies don't want to carry the costs associated with it.

If you've ever been to a customer service center (or whatever they call them) at UPS or FedEx, you'll know what I'm talking about. Long lines for the single desk manned by someone who clearly does not want to be doing that job and shows it by every interaction with customers.

Also the important point is that the people who the packages are delivered to aren't the customers. The companies that ship the packages are. So unsurprisingly the carriers don't really give all that much of a shit about how you feel about their service. Unless a really egregious customer service failure goes viral for some reason.

deanclatworthy
The solution is to not leave them outside a home. In the two European countries I have lived, if you are not home they take the package back to your local post office to pick up on your own time. Problem solved.
GameTheory8
This isn't really a solution when you start multiplying the # of carriers (USPS/UPS/FedEx/Ontrac/etc) that deliver in the US, to the number of packages that heavy e-commerce users receive per month. It's not unusual for people with Amazon Prime accounts to have 10+ packages delivered in a month. If they would have to go to different locations to pick up all these packages, then it quickly negates much of the convenience/experience of shopping online.
purplelobster
Maybe it would be in all these companies interest to jointly set up distribution centers? In Sweden the postal service shut down most offices in the 90s, but instead set up shop in grocery stores everywhere. When you get a package you simply go to the closest store and pick it up. IMO this works much better than the to-the-door delivery in the US (unless you have a door man 24/7). Of course UPS/Fedex don't use these channels, but maybe they should. Getting a package from them means a lot of pain if you don't stay home from work to receive the package. If I miss the delivery I have to travel for like an hour to the pick it up, which is quite difficult since I don't have a car. It's come to the point where I won't order anything delivered by them.
ajuc
It's not a problem. We have many carriers in Poland, these that aren't the national carrier just use inpost package holders, or the delivery man contact you by phone to know when you will be home (some people also tell them to meet at work). Or they use the mail box for smaller packages (all carriers can drop something there).

It's really non-issue.

dkraft
then just be there or hire someone to stay for you.
joshvm
As other commenters from the UK have said, here you can't just leave a package outside someone's doorstep without a signature here. If the delivery company does this and you have no parcel, you just get on the phone to Amazon and tell them to send a replacement.

If theft is so common in the area and you can't simply reorder the product (for free) then surely buying some kind of secure lockbox is a better solution? Most courier companies will let you provide additional details like an entry code.

justincormack
You can, and it does happen. But yes, you would get a replacement if its not there.
DanBC
> Obviously, the better solution would be bait packages with tracking devices that would alert law enforcement when moved and serve as probable cause for searches...

This is a start up idea. You design and sell a gadget that is put inside a parcel. You sell it to law enforcement, or to delivery companies.

thisone
An easier option is to have your items delivered to a local pickup location

Amazon offers it https://www.amazon.com/b/ref=amb_link_366591722_2?_encoding=... as well as having other pickup options in the UK (though I see in the US, there are not as many parcel dropoff services! is this an area for growth?)

Another UK example is Argos which has some partnership with eBay where you can have some purchases delivered to a local branch.

Most bricks and mortar stores will ship for free to your local store for pickup.

kwhitefoot
Here, in Norway, parcels are delivered to a supermarket or petrol station nearby and either a paper slip is delivered or a text sent to announce the delivery. You then go and pick it up.
MichaelBurge
Could you buy a mailbox for them to drop packages into? And then you could bolt it onto something firm.

Doesn't stop people from watching for deliveries, cutting the mailbox open, and stealing packages inside; but if that happened to me I'd consider moving.

ajuc
Why would you leave package on the porch?

In Poland postman has to contact someone in the home, and if nobody's there he leaves a note in the mail box "come to the post office and get your package - we will keep it for 2 weeks and then return it to the sender".

And right now there's "packageomats" operated by some other companies - you can ask for your package to be delivered there and you need a passsword to take it out https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fc/Galeria_...

That's for people that don't have time when post offices are open, and aren't home when postman comes.

grahamburger
I don't see how this helps if the thief is following the delivery truck. Wouldn't they just take the decoy along with the real package?
GameTheory8
From my consumer perspective (mostly Amazon Prime packages):

I've probably had 1 or 2 random lost/stolen packages over the last 6-7 years, from a handful of locations. There's more that randomly go missing for a day or so but those are usually carrier issues, and not lost, but delayed.

From my business perspective:

We're a semi-large FBA seller on Amazon and have had 100,000ish orders over the last 2 years. I've received many messages before where customers claim to have packages go missing, but a quick reply notifying the customer that we'll get x carrier to investigate usually gets a quick reply that they found the package.

To us, this is more of a numbers game where we allocate 0.x% of revenue to lost/stolen/damaged packages and then just try to minimize the losses on a case by case basis. Our main goal is to have happy customers that receive what they ordered, so if there's any delivery hiccups, we always take the liability and quickly replace or refund.

Bonus Amazon tip:

Delivery confirmation w/tracking information isn't proof of delivery for packages, and they'll refund/replace orders even if the tracking details say "Delivered". This makes sense when a package gets delivered and someone steals it before the customer takes possession of it.

As a seller on Amazon, in the event of a problem/claim, Amazon requires signature confirmation to guarantee that the package was actually received. Signature confirmation is expensive so it then only makes sense for packages valued at $300+. (Products in Electronics might be different w/higher loss rates)

IMO, damaged packages are a bigger issue, but then that becomes mostly a packaging, then carrier issue.

What's the solution? No clue, but adding friction points such as giving a package to a neighbor, or having to go somewhere else to retrieve your package just slowly adds to a negative customer experience over time and should be avoided whenever possible.

mandor
In France (and I suspect in many European countries), most modern buildings/renovated buildings have large mailbox in which many packages fit (e.g. books). The mailman has a 'universal key' and drop the packages there.
biased_coin
In India, Flipkart ( an e-commerce company) gives you an option to leave the package with a nearby shop (which would have signed up as a partner). Maybe you could try working out something with a shop-owner nearby (and one day scale it as a solution :) )
otterley
UPS, at least, will deliver to my local bodega, which keeps commuter-friendly hours (open till 10pm most days). It's called "MyChoice." It's free, but you have to sign up for it. I typically use it for high-value deliveries; it's worked well so far.
brndn
What is a bodega?
Harkins
A small convenience/grocery store in a dense urban area.
bitcuration
The solution is to leave it to a convenience store nearby for a fee, the delivery company UPS or else should cut a deal with all the 7/11s nearby for temporary parcel holding.

Amazon locker is a good starting point, but moe Uber style convenience store joint venture would be a practical solution. There, a startup idea for anyone who care to try.

Last week, a $100 worth package was picked by a guy on cheap bike from my front door 20 minutes after the delivery. Though entirely captured on camera, there is nothing the police could do about it. Amazon might just refund the loss, what if this is eBay or newegg, surely troubling.

Mandatum
This exact thing is very popular in Europe, and in New Zealand they're rolling out third-party pick-up locations. Dairies (convenience stores), supermakets and shopping centres (malls) are signing up to get paid on a per-pickup basis.

You can buy something online and ask for it to be delivered to your local dairy where it'll be held for up to 10 days. You're required to show ID when picking it up, but it's so much more convenient than asking for evening or Saturday delivery when you're not sure when the courier will be around to deliver the item (although we're not getting very good estimates from analysing past delivery history for streets, 80% of the time accurate within 30 mins).

nkurz
I guess I'm a traditionalist, but since no one has suggested it yet, I'll suggest an alternative: rally to enforce the law. I'd assert that societies that accept theft as the norm, blaming the victim for failing to properly secure their goods, are on a downward slope from which they will never escape.

Instead of accepting that "property crime gets no attention", increase the risk to those would would steal packages by making it more likely that those who do so are caught and punished. Put a tracking device in a bait package, record the theft with a video camera, and report the final location to the police.

If the police fail to react to such a credible tip (especially if you can do this multiple times), turn the video and police report over to some local reporters. I think (hope?) that the reporters would have a field day, and make enough noise that those particular thieves will not be in business much longer.

pbreit
You're missing a) that it requires a lot of coordination, b) most people don't want to leave junk on their porch and c) it's not so big of a problem that it requires so much involvement from tons of people who don't even care.