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I will be curious to read about the results. I don't foresee it being very successful. My guess would be 1 in 100, at best, will result in a sale.

I think he'd have more success with iPhone text ads targeting running-related sites on the mobile web. It will cost him $.25 per click, but the conversion rate will be much higher because 100% of the people that click the ad will have an iPhone and be interested in running.

I love people trying to innovate, but this is going to run into the brick-wall reality of conversion math.

My site, where 6 cents gets me a guaranteed visitor: ~20% download or sign up, ~2.5% pay, cost per conversion thus about $12. I charge $30 and smile.

The iPhone app will have three different gates in the funnel: percentage of people who visit website (or search on AppStore by name -- can you even do that?), percentage who download, percentage who purchase. I can tell you that gate #1 is not going to be anywhere near 100%. I'd be pleasantly surprised if it were in the two digits. The math just gets more depressing from there.

Don't charge $2 if you're going to have marginal advertising expenditures, folks. It is not sustainable.

I don't see $150 breaking the bank, not if the app being advertised has sold marginally well in the past. And its a fun, different way for people to remember about your app after you've spoken to them about it (say, after a conference). If they seem interested, give them a card. And if the person in question isn't interested, just don't give them a card.

Not that the situation I outlined above is how the cards are being used. Instead, an application about running is being advertised at a running event. Presumably, you have some sort of interest in running, if you're watching a leg of a marathon take place. So, its not too hard to presume that this would be useful for more than 1 in 25 people watching the marathon.

This kind of reminds me of a sticker. Only, instead of just a picture of the app (or the app icon, in Colloquy's case when we handed out stickers), it also says a few words about what the app does for you.

percentage who download, percentage who purchase.

These two "funnels" are the same. The App Store doesn't currently have any sort of trial, and this app doesn't seem to have a free version of any sort.

or search on App Store by name -- can you even do that?

Yes, you can search for applications by name (or keyword, or developer) in the App Store.

Don't charge $2 if you're going to have marginal advertising expenditures, folks. It is not sustainable.

As a random datapoint, I've seen a few companies pay for a weekly spot on daringfireball, which is $2,500/week where the app only costs $2/app and the company didn't have any other applications available.

Possibly if the app is really good this kind of advertising could generate a lot of word of mouth buzz around the app.