Tell HN: Driverless trucks: just because we can, doesn't mean we should

5 points by hoodoof ↗ HN
There are hundreds of thousands of people and families whose livelihood, ability to pay their bills and put food on the table depends on driving trucks.

Just because we can make driverless trucks does not mean we should.

It would be great if sometimes our society made decisions looking to the wellbeing of other people instead of focusing on profit for companies.

What is going to happen to those people and their children who no longer have a means of income?

I feel like technologists corporations and government don't have much ability to put themselves in the shoes of those who aren't doing well financially.

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I'm sure the same has been said of many other sorts of everyday technology that we all find commonplace now.

The machines are coming and there's nothing you can do about it -- adjust and thrive, or don't. It's going to happen either way.

It's a real pity that we feel we don't have the ability to make decisions against "the inevitable" where that outcomes aren't good for people and that we should "deal with it".
It's not a shame, it's evolution -- we get better at building solutions for things we used to do manually -- it frees us up to focus on things that really matter -- like Angry Birds and whatnot.
Yes it absolutely means we should.. at least to avoid the hundreds or thousands of accidents per year caused by truck drivers.
Well, it's at least a decade away. If you knew your job might disappear in 10 years, couldn't you plan for it?
Deliberately putting your company at a competitive disadvantage goes against what makes capitalism work.

There is time to plan for this change.

I've never understood this argument. Is it "we should keep inefficiencies in the system, because some people make money off of those inefficiencies"?
I understand the argument. Your rephrasing overlooks that our society demands that most people make money to live a decent life, and it's a lot of people making a not-crazy amount of money off the inefficiencies, and it's not obvious what industries could be expected to provide a comparable living to that many people.

That said, I don't think making everyone pay more to ship things so that some people can do something that isn't valuable any longer is the way to go.

The argument is that automating peoples' jobs will make them unemployed. Clearly, unemployment is not efficient. If you have 40% of the population sitting around twiddling their thumbs, then you're not being very efficient at all, even if the jobs those people used to do are automated.
Just because we can make horseless carriages does not mean we should.

Oh wait. That gave the livelihood to truckers, so it's Something Completely Different. Right?

The system actually has a terrific incentive to block innovation in the autonomous hauling space: avoiding mass unemployment and middle class unrest. Imagine you take away the best way for a person to place themselves squarely in the middle class, then multiply that person's anger by millions.

The benefits are also tremendous though. Those people would be unburdened of repetitive, menial, dangerous work and society would have a more effective and reliable way of transporting goods.

In the end it's about what fulfills more people's needs more effectively. You can't blame a company for trying to find any way of increasing profits, you can't blame governments for trying to protect tax payers, and you can't blame unemployed people for being restless. The question the world has to answer soon: if boosting economic growth and increasing the efficiency of the market are our main goals, what are we willing to do or not do to get there?

> The benefits are also tremendous though. Those people would be unburdened of repetitive, menial, dangerous work and society would have a more effective and reliable way of transporting goods.

Perhaps.

If, and only if, they can get something that at least partially replaces the menial work they lost.

To give a worked example, some of the former mining communities decimated by the pit closures in the 80s are dead communities with unemployment around the 40% mark, to this day. Many people never worked again, despite having spent many years in constant employment and were plagued with depression and other illness as a result of losing career. Many of those former miners would trade the half lifetime of unemployment for repetitive, menial, dangerous work in a heartbeat.

So in that case you're not filling people's needs more effectively, especially when as is so often the case, only lip service is paid to providing alternate options, encouraging industry to move to decimated localities and providing real, substantive help to those unable to find alternate employment.

You're right. This is the danger we're facing as automation across industries looms greater. There is reason to be pessimistic, seeing as governments and other institutions have historically dealt with this very poorly. I believe the danger is greater when middle class jobs (according to this site the average starting pay is $40k/yr http://www.alltrucking.com/faq/first-year-truck-driver-salar...) are tossed in the mill. There are few other alternatives when it comes to salaries like that. A high school graduate is going to have a hard time finding anything remotely close to that kind of pay, and that will be worse in rural working class communities, like the kind you point out.

This discussion is not full without some mention of the basic income debate. That is the leverage point at which governments can make a difference. The problem is that those policies will be difficult to fund at the beginning, before we see the possibly dramatic economic benefits of automation. My other fear is that this reality will cause governments to stifle automation. Things are usually very messy before they get better.

My concern is if a basic income is introduced it will be so low as to render it near meaningless.

In the UK minimum wage is around £11k, welfare gives somewhere around £3k I think. A basic income is likely to be nearer a welfare level than a working minimum. Politically I think it's going to be a very tough sell to set it at working minimum. I think it has to be at or near working minimum to be effective.

We're potentially looking at unprecedented numbers of lives ruined unless it is handled better. Nearly all options for manual or lower qualified workers are going away. It probably is going to be very messy.

> Imagine you take away the best way for a person to place themselves squarely in the middle class, then multiply that person's anger by millions.

It's been happening for decades tho.

BTW, we can make driverless trucks? I keep hearing the same thing about flying cars. For about half a century now, without anything substantial to show for it.
Volvo have been trialing driverless trucks for some time now.

http://www.volvogroup.com/group/global/en-gb/_layouts/CWP.In...

>Volvo’s vision of combining a well-trained professional driver with increased automation is being realized through the SARTRE (Safe Road Trains for the Environment) project. The idea behind the project – of which Volvo is a part through its centre for research and innovation, Volvo Technology – is to develop a technology for vehicle platooning – that is, a convoy where a professional driver in a lead vehicle drives a line of other vehicles. Each vehicle in the convoy measures the distance, speed and direction to the car in front, and adjusts accordingly. The vehicles are not physically attached to each other and can leave the procession at any time. But once in the platoon, the following drivers can relax and do other things while the platoon proceeds towards its destination under the expert guidance of the lead driver.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/fea...

> In 2012, Volvo Trucks tried out its autonomous vehicles on public roads for the first time, as part of the European Commission-backed Project Sartre (Safe Road Trains for the Environment), which looked at the feasibility of platooning – when a single, lead driver in a truck, using what might be thought of as a kind of digital towbar, controls the speed, steering and braking of two or more trucks or cars, to form a road train.

> Now, the EC has just announced the €5.4m (£4.55m) Project Companion, led by Scania, to develop the technology further and explore the legislative changes necessary for this kind of automated road train to run on motorways such as our own M4. So while talk of Amazon's delivery drones have caught the headlines, autonomous trucks may be doing precisely that in about 10 years' time, if the law catches up with the technology.

Video from 2012: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oV3nINN2ELQ

I'm aware of this. What I'm trying to say is that there's a lot of uncertainties and risks in this branch of the tech tree. Just like flying cars, having a prototype here and there does not make this mass usage.
I don't see robots taking away flatbed trucking work. The most important part of the job is in the securement of irregular loads (and the adjustment of said securement, as needed, during the trip).