Apply HN: linking past behavior to future behavior

3 points by mettamage 10y ago ↗ HN

This is halfway a discussion topic and an application. The application is based on a key insight that I think is worth discussing. I also sketched a potential company idea for it. The key insight can be commercially exploited in many forms.

Here is an issue I have: I can't reliably predict my future actions with my thoughts alone. There are many moments that I can, but there are too many moments that relying on my thoughts doesn't work and results in unplanned activities. A more reliable predictor is what I did in the recent past will be very likely what I will do in the recent future.

Hence the key insight is: behavior of an activity from the recent past predicts behavior for the same activity in the recent future.

=== COMPANY SKETCH: trialstudy.com ===

A striking example where this idea is not implemented is study choice assessments. Many people switch bachelor programs in The Netherlands because they find out after a couple of months that the experience is a complete mismatch of what they expected. And the thing is the experience of the topic itself can be felt within 2 to 4 weeks in a comprehensive fashion.

To solve this particular instance of the problem problem we could build a platform that measures to what extent you like MOOCs and your high school courses. It will then see to what extent this matches a particular program (e.g., psychology = applied math + facts + reports) and will let you inform to what extent you'd like a university program.

I called this specific application based on the key insight "trialstudy.com". In the Netherlands, only universities are providing 1 day trial studies which is the only competition. If you can demonstrate that high schoolers are better able to choose their study programs, then they will pay for it because it has a cost-saving effect for at least a wasted study year in most cases.

So about the key insight do you believe it to be true or false or something else?

2 comments

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blackflame7000 10y ago ↗

I think there is something to this. I believe humans are inertial driven machines opting to invest more time and energy in actions that result in positive outcomes. But for every example of an action I can think of where past history is indicative or future success (say going to the gym for example), I can also think of an action where a person feels diminishing returns on the results to the point where they get sick of it. (eating the same food for every meal)

I think there has to be some sort of classification of actions. Actions where excessive repetition leads to disillusion and actions where excessive repetition leads to addiction.

camreynoldson 10y ago ↗

I think it's an interesting idea. One thing to note, though, is the whole saying "it's journey, not the destination." I think some people would prefer to experiment and try new things for themselves; however, I do feel that there is room for such a product that provides a good enough experience to "try" something out without completely investing all of your time into it. If you can find the appropriate balance between the two, I think it would be pretty cool.