his analysis may be acceptable comparing one shot blocker to another, but when analyzing how many points or wins the shot blocker is worth he is missing a HUGE part of the value of a shot blocker.
Pretty much any basketball player or coach will tell you that while a shot blocker may only block a few shots a game (to have 10 in a game is a spectacular performance), often what's even more important is the fear he instills in the opponents when they attempt a shot near the hoop. It usually leads to shots taken at a tougher angle, or with more arc, that ultimately are going to be less successful, on average.
Unfortunately this impact would be very hard to accurately quantify. You could perhaps compare a player or teams average success of a given shot (especially near the basket) against the success of a given shot with the shot blocker on the court. There may not be enough data to do this, and unfortunately this still doesn't accurate gauge the plays when the shot blocker truely affected the shot (if a layup was taken and he was 15 feet away, he most likely had little to no impact on the shooter's decision making (note he still could have some small impact, because players do take more notice of who is around them when taking a shot when a known shotblocker is on the floor. Even if he ends up being farther away, being "in the shooter's head" can affect shots)).
This may also affect the analysis of comparing a shot blocker to another shot blocker, since the overall impact against the opposition that a shot blocker has could vary and be very significant.
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[ 4.6 ms ] story [ 12.7 ms ] threadPretty much any basketball player or coach will tell you that while a shot blocker may only block a few shots a game (to have 10 in a game is a spectacular performance), often what's even more important is the fear he instills in the opponents when they attempt a shot near the hoop. It usually leads to shots taken at a tougher angle, or with more arc, that ultimately are going to be less successful, on average.
Unfortunately this impact would be very hard to accurately quantify. You could perhaps compare a player or teams average success of a given shot (especially near the basket) against the success of a given shot with the shot blocker on the court. There may not be enough data to do this, and unfortunately this still doesn't accurate gauge the plays when the shot blocker truely affected the shot (if a layup was taken and he was 15 feet away, he most likely had little to no impact on the shooter's decision making (note he still could have some small impact, because players do take more notice of who is around them when taking a shot when a known shotblocker is on the floor. Even if he ends up being farther away, being "in the shooter's head" can affect shots)).
This may also affect the analysis of comparing a shot blocker to another shot blocker, since the overall impact against the opposition that a shot blocker has could vary and be very significant.