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Ask HN: Analysis on possible financial crisis for '17?

16 points by mmiliauskas ↗ HN
Just had some _interesting_ conversation with my barber today and she was telling how quite a few bankers were telling her that "be prepared for 2017". Not really into gossips and speculations, but if somebody has some links to articles/books or interviews by respected sources/analysts, it would be great if you could share it here.

Cheers.

7 comments

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arcanus
We have been out of recession (in the USA) since '08, which historically is a long time.

Furthermore, we are at full employment, with unemployment at 4.7%.

So we certainly could see the end of this business cycle soon. That alone is not a cause for concern, but I am worried about the general lack of ammunition available to central banks in the eventurbine they need to stimulate the economy.

baron816
Economic expansions don't die of old age. The current one is long for the US, but not for many other countries.

That being said, it is a problem that the Fed can't cut interest rates any more, and Congress is vehemently opposed to any fiscal stimulus. I believe our only hope is "helicopter money," ie a UBI executed by the Fed. If the Fed gave out $2000 to everyone (or maybe just the bottom 20% of the income bracket), that could work. It would significantly help the most vulnerable and wouldn't just drive up prices on financial assets. I really think the Fed should start setting up the infrastructure for this now.

cmdrfred
Tax the wealthy to provide subsidies for the poor, what do you think this is Switzerland? We will probably see more tax cuts for the upper quintile and some yelling about how, eventually, one day, it's all going to come trickling down.
arcanus
> Economic expansions don't die of old age.

I don't disagree, my comment was purely empirical. According to the historically observed frequency of recessions in the USA, we have gone longer than is typical.

deepGem
I highly doubt that this kind of information hits public sources before the said phenomenon actually starts to occur. I mean Ron Paulson wouldn't have made $15 billion shorting real estate, if everyone in 2007 knew about the then impending housing crisis.

That said, the debt to GDP ratio of most developed countries is at some of the highest levels ever seen. That could be an issue but am not sure if it's big enough to cause a recession.

theandrewbailey
From casual observation of life, I've noticed an economic recession happens about once every 10-ish years, so the next one should come by 2020. I've been saving quite a bit, so I can buy everything when everyone else is panicking, if my job is reasonably secure.