More worrying is the fact that Israel considers its secret nuclear arsenal to be a primary motivating force when dealing with its relations with Western nations. The 'Goliath' program has a very, very sinister purpose: to hold the world ransom with nuclear deterrents, such that Israel gets its way no matter what.
That's the only field use for Nukes anyway right ? Every country wants it as big muscle to show up to other neighbors in negotiations. I'm curious if the 200 count is growing or if it's only remains of the post WW2 nuclear spread.
Could you go on ? from my perspective Israel has always spread the notion that it's surrounded by predator states, justifying the constant expansion has a protective means.
I could, but first we would need to see where our common points are. For instance, you mentioned "the constant expansion": how is that consistent with the Camp David accord, Oslo accords, the removal of the Gaza settlements?
While I think the subject of Powell's email getting hacked is very interesting -- he's admitted to the hack but have we learned any technical details regarding how his GMail account was breached? -- this doesn't appear to be a very newsworthy insight.
First of all, he's not writing as a Secretary of State, so the number "200" could be conjecture, he certainly doesn't seem to be making an appeal to authority, i.e. "When I was at State, Israel told us etc etc etc". Who are the "boys in Tehran" who know that Israel has 200? CIA spies? The negotiators? Diplomats?
> Former CIA Director Robert Gates said so during his 2006 Senate confirmation hearings for secretary of defense, when he noted—while serving as a university president—that Iran is surrounded by “powers with nuclear weapons,” including “the Israelis to the west.” Former President Jimmy Carter said so in 2008 and again this year, in interviews and speeches in which he pegged the number of Israel’s nuclear warheads at 150 to around 300.
Was it ever implied or said that his account was breached? It seems more likely that they are coming from the accounts of recipients at the DNC, based on the context of the article.
They don't need spies to count the actual bombs. One can estimate the number through a combination of knowing which warhead tech Israel has acquired and an estimate of their production capacity. Whether it is Israel or North Korea, the math is the same.
Or, assuming that Israel has had time to make far more bombs that it needs, one can estimate the stockpile through a measurement of potential delivery systems. 150 missiles + 50 aircraft = at most 200 warheads.
So the number of actual warheads could be far greater, but it is effectively only as many as the number of delivery vehicles. Especially in the event of a full nuclear war, since they won't exactly be able to go back and rearm with those spare warheads.
These things aren't cheap to build or maintain. And trying to keep 300 things secret is harder than 100. So no nation has a pile of extras lying around. Even the US/UK actually have far fewer warheads than delivery systems. Not every warhead on every missile in every sub is always armed. So counting the delivery mechanisms gives you an upper limit. I think this is the source of the 200 number. Of course Israel is a little odd. They are the one nuclear power obsessed with invasion of a very small territory. They may have some static plans, large warheads meant to be detonated at fixed positions rather than be 'delivered' by missile or bomber. That is a complication.
"They don't need spies to count the actual bombs. One can estimate the number through a combination of knowing which warhead tech Israel has acquired and an estimate of their production capacity."
And how do you think they estimate their production capacity or know which tech they acquired? They can know what they sold or gave them, but cannot rule out that others played a role, too.
If they somehow manage to get those answers without spying, checking to what extent those answers can be trusted surely needs it.
"one can estimate the stockpile through a measurement of potential delivery systems."
They may be bluffing: trying to appear stronger than they are to prevent others from attacking you.
They also may play the statistics game: if they have 3 bombs and build only 3 rockets, enemies may think they can take them all out. If they have 3 bombs and build 20 rockets, enemies may think twice even if they know they have only 3 bombs.
Again, additional info is needed to figure out what information you got means_.
I think what's far more interesting is his dismissive attitude toward Iran possessing a nuclear weapon. How would they test it? What would they do, polish it? It puts the Iranian nuclear deal in an interesting context.
As for Israel possessing 200 nukes, I'm sure that surprises no one. Yeah they don't publicly address it but anyone remotely familiar with their foreign policy would have known this for some time.
The idea that Iranian theocracy is crazy and determined to destroy Israel even at the cost of the destruction of Iran and collapse of their state is convenient fiction. I think most IR scholars think that Iran wants to be regional power next to Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
It's easy to use threatening soundbites in both sides. Axis of evil and Death to the America are just slogans. Theocratic leaders of Iran are first and foremost cynical and calculating politicians.
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Colin Powell has to be one of the few people who has had their privacy invaded and has come out looking better because of it.
It's a very strange cultural thing going on with this hack. I've read three articles about the hack, and depending on the political views of the author, Colin agrees with him. If the author doesn't like Trump? Colin said some bad things about him. If the author doesn't like Clinton? Same thing.
Of course, I'm sure the reality is that he was frank and biting about all of them, but the reporting on this leak is like an exercise in propaganda -- find something true that demoralizes the other guys, then publish it.
I feel sorry the guy got robbed, and I hope they catch whoever did it, but I'm not holding my breath.
He was abducted via honeytrap from Sydney, but physically overpowered and drugged once in Rome.
Your comment implies he is free. He spent 18 years in prison, including more than 11 in solitary confinement, and while 'released' is apparently surveilled, subject to a lot of restrictions and forced to stay in Israel.
he shall not be able to have contacts with foreigners
his telephone and Internet use shall be monitored
he shall not enter Internet chat rooms
he shall not own cellular phones
he shall not approach or enter embassies and consulates
he shall not come within 500 meters of any international border crossing
he shall not visit any port of entry into Israel
he shall not leave Israel
sounds quite Israelish... or when they killed genius ammunition inventor Gerard Bull in Brussels for cooperating with Saddam when he was still cool with US.
sometimes when they decide to kill/abduct people around the world ignoring any international laws it makes at least a bit of sense (holocaust perpetrators), sometimes a bit less...
I wonder if this was "hacked" (as in, leaked) as some kind of warning to Iran, perhaps following one of those diplomatic incidents that never make it to the popular press.
Not that it's very productive to wonder this sort of thing, since I don't have any way to know what's up, but I can't help to wonder anyway.
Is there any speculation as to where Israel got it's nukes? Did they develop them independently? If so where did they test them anyway?
For what it's worth, I think Colin Powell is right: Iran doesn't want to develop nukes as an offensive weapon. What they really want is a seat at the grown-up table and to prevent regime change being imposed on them.
An interesting engineering question that needs to be raised is, given no known nuclear test conducted by Israel, how do they know about the reliability of their design ? Assuming they built the warheads by themselves. Did they use foreign blueprints ? Or did foreign countries tested their weapons under their [the foreign country's] official program ? Or do they have access to advanced computation models [which is less probable given they had these weapons since the 70s]
47 comments
[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 113 ms ] threadFirst of all, he's not writing as a Secretary of State, so the number "200" could be conjecture, he certainly doesn't seem to be making an appeal to authority, i.e. "When I was at State, Israel told us etc etc etc". Who are the "boys in Tehran" who know that Israel has 200? CIA spies? The negotiators? Diplomats?
Meanwhile, President Carter has been giving speeches and interviews about this for years: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/isr...
> Former CIA Director Robert Gates said so during his 2006 Senate confirmation hearings for secretary of defense, when he noted—while serving as a university president—that Iran is surrounded by “powers with nuclear weapons,” including “the Israelis to the west.” Former President Jimmy Carter said so in 2008 and again this year, in interviews and speeches in which he pegged the number of Israel’s nuclear warheads at 150 to around 300.
Condoleezza Rice is definitely not a member of the DNC.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/colin-powell-called...
Or, assuming that Israel has had time to make far more bombs that it needs, one can estimate the stockpile through a measurement of potential delivery systems. 150 missiles + 50 aircraft = at most 200 warheads.
And how do you think they estimate their production capacity or know which tech they acquired? They can know what they sold or gave them, but cannot rule out that others played a role, too.
If they somehow manage to get those answers without spying, checking to what extent those answers can be trusted surely needs it.
"one can estimate the stockpile through a measurement of potential delivery systems."
They may be bluffing: trying to appear stronger than they are to prevent others from attacking you.
They also may play the statistics game: if they have 3 bombs and build only 3 rockets, enemies may think they can take them all out. If they have 3 bombs and build 20 rockets, enemies may think twice even if they know they have only 3 bombs.
Again, additional info is needed to figure out what information you got means_.
The Iranians. The Iranians know that Israel has approximately 200 nukes pointed mostly at them.
As for Israel possessing 200 nukes, I'm sure that surprises no one. Yeah they don't publicly address it but anyone remotely familiar with their foreign policy would have known this for some time.
Where they are, is another thing entirely.
Mossad operate the worlds greatest border infiltration teams, and operates the widest network of smugglers of any nation.
Most of Israels' nuclear arsenal is man-portable.
Israel is under no obligation to report anything about its nuclear arsenal.
Do you have a source for that?
Mordechai Vanunu.
It's easy to use threatening soundbites in both sides. Axis of evil and Death to the America are just slogans. Theocratic leaders of Iran are first and foremost cynical and calculating politicians.
They're purely defensive.
I wish Hacker News could do something more useful than single out Israel for trying to exist.
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It's a very strange cultural thing going on with this hack. I've read three articles about the hack, and depending on the political views of the author, Colin agrees with him. If the author doesn't like Trump? Colin said some bad things about him. If the author doesn't like Clinton? Same thing.
Of course, I'm sure the reality is that he was frank and biting about all of them, but the reporting on this leak is like an exercise in propaganda -- find something true that demoralizes the other guys, then publish it.
I feel sorry the guy got robbed, and I hope they catch whoever did it, but I'm not holding my breath.
Your comment implies he is free. He spent 18 years in prison, including more than 11 in solitary confinement, and while 'released' is apparently surveilled, subject to a lot of restrictions and forced to stay in Israel.
sometimes when they decide to kill/abduct people around the world ignoring any international laws it makes at least a bit of sense (holocaust perpetrators), sometimes a bit less...
Not that it's very productive to wonder this sort of thing, since I don't have any way to know what's up, but I can't help to wonder anyway.
For what it's worth, I think Colin Powell is right: Iran doesn't want to develop nukes as an offensive weapon. What they really want is a seat at the grown-up table and to prevent regime change being imposed on them.