I am a european and getting pissed off by these cocky austrians and germans. They are so full of themselves and keep trash talking about Tesla for so long. Yet they cannot deliver.
Tesla does. Period. Also it's not only about technical superiority but experience as well. Tesla excels here.
For the performance and features, it is in no way expensive. The P100DL beats a Lamborghini Huracan off the line up to 100mph+ at a fraction of the cost. Disclosure I own a Models S 85D.
I don't know what country you're from, but in the US there are a lot of people who obsess about straight-line drag racing. For example, in the Fast and Furious movies, while they drive cars in all kinds of ways, the obsession is about a "10 second car", which is a straight-line 1/4 mile measurement.
Also in the US, there's an even larger group of car buyers who will never drag race their cars, but like knowing that the car they just bought is excellent in some way.
The i3 appears to be a really well designed car. It costs about $7000 more than the model 3, but it already exists. And they've just increased the battery capacity 50%, so the nominal range is 200 miles, or 275 with the range extender. I just read BMW think they can double that by 2020. Tesla certainly has at least some competition.
I think the i3 is one of the coolest looking small cars around. It is distinctive, and the designers clearly made a choice to go for a design that would get noticed. I do think it looks better in all-black, rather than the two-tone colors.
It's easily one of the most popular EVs here in the UK (along with the Tesla, Renault Zoe, and Nissan Leaf). Very nice to drive with a stylish, comfortable, minimalist, premium-quality interior. BMW's software does let it down, though - at least when compared to a Tesla.
But still, i'd argue if you want an EV and can't afford a Tesla, it's the best option available right now (at least until the Bolt is released).
I was just reading a review which said 200 under ideal conditions, interesting that BMW claim so much less. Does anyone know is there a shared standard for these claims, used by Tesla and the other companies? When Tesla says 200 miles for the model 3, is that 200 miles with a.c. and hills, or is a theoretical maximum?
There are two major shared standards, the American EPA testing cycle and the European NEDC testing cycle. Both are based on essentially taking a car out and driving it in a certain way until the battery is dead, and seeing how far it got.
The EPA range is fairly realistic in my experience, at least with a Tesla. Hills and climate control (AC not so much, but heating is huge) will affect it, but I get fairly close to the official numbers much of the time.
The NEDC test is much more gentle and provides wildly unrealistic numbers. You won't achieve NEDC numbers unless you're doing something like a steady 55MPH on level ground with no climate control.
You can see this in action by going to Tesla's design page and switching the country between the US and the UK. For the US, the Model S 60 is rated at 218 miles and the P100D is 315 miles. In the UK, those numbers are 253 and 381.
BMW says 300km, or 186 miles, for the larger i3 battery under the NEDC:
Tesla's stated Model 3 range of 215 miles is the EPA rating, and so should be fairly realistic in mild conditions, less so in the winter or with a heavy foot. The BMW number to compare to would be 125 miles.
Glad to help. The existence of both EPA and NEDC numbers is really confusing, especially since most range numbers you see don't specify which one they're using. Once you know what's going on with that, it all makes a lot more sense.
As an i3 driver... I don't think it's very competitive. The range is pretty far from the stated numbers. Noticeably worse than the much cheaper Fiat 500e, even.
I wouldn't compare anything to the model 3, though, because I don't believe teals will hit their dates or price point.
If only it didn't look like a product of 4 different design departments welded together at the last minute, it would be almost perfect. Seriously, look at that car from the side - each panel(front body, front door, rear door, rear body) literally comes from a different designer - it doesn't even have a consistent line throughout.
I saw one the other day in my town, and liked the look of it. It does look wonky in photo shoots, but people don't look at cars in the same way in real life.
Hah, I'll stick up for it. I think it's got a certain distinct style of it's own. It's a damned sight better than some of the electric vehicles from the old days. I think it looks like a good city runner and I'd be happy to drive it.
Not a BMW fan at all, default detest of that brand, but I respect their trying to push into e-vehicles. i8 was a big mis-step though. Cannot believe anyone bought it over a Tesla.
Hah, I'll stick up for it. I think it's got a certain distinct style of it's own. It's a damned sight better than some of the electric vehicles from the old days. I think it looks like a good city runner and I'd be happy to drive it.
Not a BMW fan at all, default detest of that brand, but I respect their trying to push into e-vehicles. i8 was a big mis-step though. Cannot believe anyone bought it over a Tesla.
Hah, I'll stick up for it. I think it's got a certain distinct style of it's own. It's a damned sight better than some of the electric vehicles from the old days. I think it looks like a good city runner and I'd be happy to drive it.
Not a BMW fan at all, default detest of that brand, but I respect their trying to push into e-vehicles. i8 was a big mis-step though. Cannot believe anyone bought it over a Tesla.
The i3 and i8 are terrible cars as far as I am concerned. Range sucks. And, frankly, if I have to go to a gas station might as well get rid of the electric components and make a nice car. I like the physical design of the i8. I spent a hour looking at one. Ultimately, the idea of having to endure both visiting a gas station and plugging in just turned me off. I'd consider it as a pure electric with decent range or gas only but not the combo.
That's a very odd statement to make. Most people like the reassurance/range-security of being able to visit a gas station in addition to having an electrical engine. That's supposed to be a selling point of the car over Tesla even though it's electrical range sucks and Tesla's extensive supercharger network all but removes range anxiety.
I thought the selling point of the i8 over the Tesla is that the i8 is a proper sports car with BMW handling, and for the i3 the selling point is that it's way cheaper.
I suspect most people only _think_ they want the range-security of going to a gas station. In practice they'd find it a huge hassle to both plug in the car and go to a gas station. Probably the average person would end up either only using either the battery pack or the gas tank, not both.
Fair enough. But I still don't know why this is a hassle not a feature. You don't have to visit a gas station. Put it this way: if the Model S could have a gas tank (without losing electric range, trunk space or any of the other features that make it unique - I know pipe dream), wouldn't customer be happier to have this option as well.
Because I want to go electric to not have to deal with gasoline ever again. I don't want to have anything to do with gas stations. It would almost be embarrassing to me to buy a $100K+ "electric" car and have to visit the gas station at all.
And, yes, it's a hassle. Life with a pure electric is simple: Plug in at work, plug in at home, plug in at the mall, visit superchargers during trips if needed.
With the BMW's you have extreme electric range anxiety (only 80 miles) if you want to "be electric" and you have to now: plug in at work, plug in at home, go to the gas station by work, go to the gas station by home, plug in at the mall, gas-up by the mall, no superchargers during longer trips, so gas-up frequently due to the 10 gallon (or is it 8?) tank.
Then there's the complexity. You are lugging around 2,000 parts you didn't really want to be lugging around. Is that generator built to last like real auto propulsion engines?
Put it simply: It's a pain in the ass, it is likely to require more maintenance and it is embarrassing.
Some of the newer hybrid drivetrains, like the new Honda Accord Hybrids, are basically electric cars mated to a gas powered generator and instead of a big battery just have a gas tank - a smaller battery bank "caches" the generated energy. Thus you only take it to the gas station every ~600 miles and don't bother the rest of the time.
(and yes, the gas engine in this kind of drivetrain will mate to the electric motors during power intensive operations for a boost, but that's not strictly required in this kind of approach)
I purposefully took a BMW i8 and a P90D for a test drive.
The i8 was woeful in comparison in all departments. They are different types of cars but the only area the i8 could speak up a little bit was in the looks department.
I haven't tried the i3 but I think it has a certain style of it's own. I'm not a huge fan but I like to see it when it rolls by as it means one more victory on the way to electric cars (and one less diesel cloud filling my lungs).
"Audi, BMW, Volkswagen and Peugeot all sell electric or hybrid-electric cars."
Audi has a A3-etron which is not an electric car. Maybe they have some $500k etron-R8 but I am not sure if they ever built that.
BMW has the i3 which is kind of interesting, in a low-production-run, dip-your-toe-in-the-market kind of way. i8 is not an electric car. Some hybrids. Who cares.
Volkswagen has the e-golf which, in a sense, is more progress than the others since it's an actual VM car that actual people buy and is actually electric. It's not a car I would buy, but again - it's not a cutesy test market car and it's not a half-assed hybrid, so kudos to VW.
I don't know anything about Peugeot. Probably hybrids so who cares.
In conclusion:
We're in the same place we've been for 9-12 years: CEO of Audi/BMW/Porsche/Merc announce a major electric car initiative with consumer models (6 years from now) and a sexy concept car at a trade show. Then nothing happens. Then three years later, repeat.
He was probably thinking of Renault, not Peugeot. The Renault Zoe is one of the most popular EVs in Europe. (Why? It looks cool, drives well, and it's cheap!)
I don't think Peugeot have done anything much notable in EVs recently.
Completely agree (I'm also European). When Porsche unveiled the Mission E, they made spec comparisons to the Tesla Model S. But the Mission E is a concept, slated for 2020!
VW/Audi, Porsche, BMW and Mercedes need to take a long hard look at themselves. The market is changing way faster than they expected IMO.
Just sell a bloody 250 mile range car I can buy for £25k. That's it. It's not hard. Do it, now. Not in 3 years. Now.
If it's so easy why don't you do it? Let me guess, you've never designed, built, or shipped any physical product.
You're like a first-year art student 'designing' the next iPhone in a 3D rendering program (Half as thick, with twice the battery life! Indestructible edge-to-edge screen!)
I see what you are saying and I partially agree with it. But the point is Audi,BMW,etc they are not first year art student. They have billion dollar R&D budget.
Update:
And keep in mind Tesla is not product of yesterday. Vibe for electronic car was around I think much longer than Tesla.But big names (Audi,BMW,etc) just ignored it for so long (maybe because of no serious competitor or corruptness -why do they need to work on something revolutionary when they are market leaders) until some guy stepped in and challeged them seriously.
True but I think his point was "it's not my problem that you didn't start your R&D in a timely manner...say 5 years ago".
Anyways that's what I read into it.
As consumers we assume hugely successful historical automotive powerhouses like BMW would have something ready to go NOW because they've been working on it already for 5 years (or ten years+ considering Prius).
Maybe not always fair, but it's generally what people are going to assume.
There's a cultural difference among traditional automakers in which new innovations are withheld from being released as they are not required to maintain a competitive position. This is very different from the attitude in the Valley/startups in which there appears to be a genuine desire to advance innovation of mankind.
As someone who has followed the car industry closely for many years, I disagree. Most automakers have been competing to survive on many dimensions throughout their life. It's just that Tesla has added more dimensions to the mix that automakers didn't prepare for, and playing catch-up takes time with such a complex product.
Maybe if the OEMs had spent the last 10 years designing and building electric cars instead of putting out diesel agents that broke the law in dozens of countries they would be in a better position.
"Hard" is relative. GM is doing it right now, Tesla is doing it next year, so there's no real excuse for other car makers other than them simply not wanting to.
Sure, I couldn't do it. But the difficulty has an upper bound based on a simple existence proof.
Tesla is a relatively new company. What's hard for them right now is scaling up production. That shouldn't be hard for the existing car companies out there. Additionally, Tesla have made their battery technology open source in order to drive competition and allow (read: motivate) other car manufacturers to build EVs. So basically, Tesla have already laid all the groundwork. The fact that all the other car manufacturers haven't brought something to market yet shows that they are dragging their feet for some reason or another.
No, that's a promise from a company that routinely misses ship dates.
State of the art is probably the Chevy Bolt, with its 200+ mile range and cost around $40k. And unlike the Tesla Model 3, it exists. There are lots of reviews of it, and full production starts next week.
You must have missed the bes where General Motors announced last year they will produce a car that will have 200 Mile range , and have it below $30k after federal tax incentives.
And you must have missed the announcement last week when they gave specifics on cost and range. The cost is what they promised, and the range is more than Tesla 3. It will go on sale for the general public at the end of the years. That's you and me, without having to put down a deposit, and wait who knows how long. That probably means those cars are churning out their manufacturing line now.
And you must have missed the news when one of Tesla's biggest supporter, Steve Woz, said he would ditch his Tesla for the Checy Bolt.
Give credit when credit is due. One of the largest and oldest auto manufacturers in the world turned around a, well received fully electrical vehicle on a short amount of time. It is reasonable priced and has more range than Tesla's Model 3.
"But the Mission E is a concept, slated for 2020!"
... that will be quietly dumped in a year or two, just in time for a new "company changing electric initiative" in 2018, with production slated for 2024.
I hope they save these press releases and just put in new dates - it would be a shame to rewrite them every three years.
Agree. I think an underestimated advantage Tesla has over the traditional car makers is their software process. Tesla just released version 8, and rolled it out to all their customers.
Traditional manufacturers must recall cars to fix a software problem, and charge customers for software upgrades. I guess it's hard for traditional car manufacturers to offer an integrated experience like that, you need to design a car from the ground up (including the software that's running in components from suppliers, like batteries) for that.
Yes. All the stories I ear about software developed by traditional car makers confirm your point. Traditional car makers produce very bad software and have very bad organisation for software development.
To a certain extent, this comes from historically creating safety-critical software which is an entirely different process compared to what is done for web apps etc. I don't think Tesla are as robust with their development processes, but they are able to make up for it with over-the-air updates.
I have worked for nuclear domain and for aeronautical domain. These are domains where safety critical software is understood. AFAIK, software is not understood in car industry. It looks like they compensate poor programming by more testing.
True. I have a Chevy volt, which I love. The check engine light came on while under powertrain warranty. It took them 5 days to upgrade the software to fix the problem, and they charged me for it since "software isn't part of the drivetrain."
GM is a very early adopter of the connect car, with their On Stsr technology. Your Chevy Volt should have it and if it's a newer model probably LTE. I would guess that there's some contractual or legal obligation that says GM cannot do work on your car. The dealers must do the work, and then get reimbursed by GM.
There's antiquated laws hat dictate manufacturer and dealer relationship, the most famous one being a manufacturer must sell cars through a dealer.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the original rationale behind requiring cars to be sold through dealers was to regulate the market and create competition among different dealers. Without that requirement, manufacturers could easily undercut dealers due to lower overhead. I'm not really sure what the point of car dealers is, but they have somehow found a way to prove themselves "necessary" to some lawmakers in some states.
> I'm not really sure what the point of car dealers is
From a DOJ analysis:
> Auto production is a capital-intensive business and a franchise system allowed manufacturers to concentrate their resources upstream while accessing capital through franchise fees from independent entrepreneurs at the retail level.
Given capital availability and resources at the time, it made sense for the auto makers to franchise.
Not sure why you're downvoted. This is the first rational explanation for this I've ever seen - thanks. Doesn't really justify it still existing today, but makes me hate the system a little less.
Musk is pretty divisive here to be honest. I see tons of anti Musk comments. I assume from your tone you aren't a fan of his, so I think what we're both seeing is confirmation bias that everyone is against our opinions.
If that were true, then they wouldn't need laws forbidding manufacturers from selling directly.
Dealers love to tell us how useful they are, but then they turn around and lobby for their privileged position to be enshrined in law and enforced by the government. Does not compute.
It's a rationale explanation and I see a part of it. It's not like McDonalds, where they have a corporate owned store and a franchisee store. Any price difference would be measured in nickels and no one is going to drive to the other side of the city to buy a burger. But if a corporate dealer can knock off $1,000 on a car just because there is no middle man, I can see why no one would want to franchise a dealership.
Thank you for responding to my confusion with this excellent article. It is intriguing to me that increased information on pricing and availability through the Internet has already eroded some of the benefits of dealership regulation. Perhaps they are a dying breed even with protective regulation that at least in the past proved mutually beneficial for automakers and dealerships.
Dealers must provide value. Using laws to "create" competition is foolish and wrong.
If there's no value in me buying a screwdriver set from Home Depot I should be able to buy it from anyone else, including the manufacturer.
In other words, there's no fundamental reason or "right" that says a dealer must exist between a manufacturer of a good and the consumers of that good. Forcing such a structure is artificial and causes problems.
For example, lots of people hate the car buying experience and dealing with a "mafia-like" (as a friend put it) dynamic between hungry commission-based sales people and the manager in the back. The whole process is disgusting. It took three hours to get out of the dealer last time I bought a car and it was a brawl to not get screwed.
I hate dealers too and hate this law, but read this[1] comment that is a sibling to yours. It explains why this law exists. It's a shame it hasn't been removed yet because it is quite dated at this point.
As a manufacturer I am very familiar with the distribution model. Dealers do create an opportunity to have a smooth flowing supply pipeline as well as inventory distributed near consumers. They make money, you make money. The difference is that in my business I have very tight controls over what my resellers can do and how they do it. The government doesn't get involved.
In the auto business dealers can be horrible places to walk into. The other day one of my friends at the gym bought a used car. She got royally screwed. I didn't tell her because it'd break her heart. They did the old "let's talk about the monthly payment" trick. She is mathematically challenged and couldn't have managed the stream of information during the negotiations. She will be paying $24K for a $10K purchase.
I anticipate (and hope) Google and other software vendor can step in and fill this void.
By the time other car makers going to release any serious competitor to Tesla , Tesla's software will be far advanced than those companies, and the thing about software is its design and implementation takes professional teams with a lot of experience. No matter how effective and advanced your team is, you need time to create a professional team to make mature software.
So the idea of other car makers somehow magically will design and implement software as mature as Tesla's , is wishful thinking I think.But software companies like Google, Microsoft, etc have required expertise in software development.
As for what happens, nobody knows, because nobody's run out the four years yet. When they announced the four free years, they also said that the clock started for existing customers on January 1, 2014, so nobody will hit the end for another year and some.
I'd guess that it'll end up being a paid subscription after that, but nobody really knows yet. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla doesn't know yet. I wouldn't be too surprised if they just make it free for life, since it's pretty cheap to provide and so important to the car, but that might just be wishful thinking on my part.
There will be a cost, but it will be minor, to offset their data costs on ATTs network for the massive amount of data they using for autopilot telemetry.
There is a rumor their cellular costs far exceed their Supercharger electricity costs.
I wouldn't be surprised if that last part was true. With my electricity costs, I pay about 4 cents per mile. If that's typical, and if the average Tesla driver does 1,000 miles/month with 10% on Superchargers (which I think is vaguely close to the truth) then the electricity costs would be something like $4/month/car.
Yes, I've always been astonished at how bad the software and software management is in the auto industry.
And I'm personally still annoyed at BMW from about 8yrs ago when my X5 was occasionally throwing a spurious trivial dashboard warning and I asked about it at the dealer when I went in for some other warranty service. When I got back there was a $200 bill for doing a flash update to some controller, and the dealer insisted that it was BMW that kept it off warranty and charged them for each install.
While I could perhaps see some trivial $15 service fee to install it, charging $200 to fix their own damn bug is pretty outrageous. They should just be installing the full set of accumulated updates every time the car comes in for service.
But that's not how the auto industry thinks, so yes, that is a huge advantage for Tesla, even if the others are starting to come around, they are effectively a decade late.
Look at it from a different angle: They have invested billions in 'traditional' combustion engines, gear-boxes etc. They are earning billions with that technology. Now image a board meeting and you are the guy asking for all the R&D money such that you cannibalise the cash cow. They don't target early adopters but the mass market and that's not where you/we want it to be. I believe that's the reason why their A engineers still work on the 'old' stuff.
> The Austrian company says its patented laser-welding and thermal-cooling techniques give them an edge over Tesla because the method preserves the full power of the lithium-ion cells.
This is what they say their advantage is against tesla. So be it, but I doubt it is revolutionnary.
More importantly, Kreiser, as far as the article explains, doesn't build entire cars. They sell drivetrains and battery packages. This is completely different, Tesla has a way bigger scope.
They don't have to build entire cars, because there are plenty of good car builders in Europe (which already seem to be their customers)
Tesla now has an edge on the technology front, but once the traditional European brands pick up, with technology that is better than Tesla (as assumed in the article), the question is if Tesla can keep it's market position. (This is in my opinion the main idea of the article)
I agree that the European brands came way too late into the game, and Tesla was clever enough to recognize this weak spot. But once Tesla starts building cheaper cars, will those who spend $70.000 on a car buy the "average" Tesla or a Mercedes, BMW or Porsche?
Don't get me wrong, I really admire Tesla for how much market share they were able to get in such a short period of time. Definitely well deserved and visionary! But it's indeed a question how this market will evolve further. This Austrian company might have an impact on it.
The way auto industry has been going in recent decades, the most probable outcome is that Tesla merges with one of the main 10 vehicle manufacturing groups. Yes there are only 10 real players on the market.
And yet in the article Kreisel Electric GmbH claims it’s fielding 20 inquiries a day from automotive icons including BMW and Volkswagen. I guess their phones remain silent for the four remaining days in a week.
The biggest attraction for me in a tesla is its auto-pilot. It just keeps getting better. Google's self driving car is still not available for consumption. I doubt European car makers will even get close to Tesla in its software integration.
BMW, Audi and family are not as strong a brand as Tesla is. (For me at least)
> This is what they say their advantage is against tesla. So be it, but I doubt it is revolutionnary.
Another advantage that is unstated in the article is that this moves the choice of electric vehicles from specific models to optional trim levels: instead of having to choose between the BMW 3 series and the i3, one could choose between the 320, 320d or the 320e
Whilst this is possible, it would be better to build an electric specific model. This is because an electric model doesn't need a fuel tank or an engine block but it will need a large number of batteries.
Unilike a fuel tank these could be distributed evenly across the base of the car, lowering the centre of gravity. A 320e wouldn't have this base to store the batteries, but it could store them under the bonnet but that would make for a very poor weight distribution which would affect handling.
This is a key point. Tesla's main advantage so far is a purpose built electric car platform. It makes a huge difference in how things are packaged. One of the reasons for teslas great handling despite its size and heft is the low center of gravity the battery pack affords. Cramming batteries into the space previously occupied by a gas tank makes for less total capacity and depending on the location turns the car into a pendulum. Notice how most established car companies have tried this approach and end up with electric ranges of 10-80 miles. It's only just now that car makers are following teslas approach and getting above 100 miles per charge up to 2-300 miles.
IMO the on time release of the model 3 will determine if tesla survives or gets acquired/fails.
> Notice how most established car companies have tried this approach and end up with electric ranges of 10-80 miles.
To rebut this - the article has a link to a Kriesel-modified 'Scoda Yeti' that can go up to 350km/217miles[1]. So the advantages of purpose-built models don't seem to include 'range'.
> As orders grow, Kreisel anticipates a steep drop in battery prices, from about $140 a kilowatt hour now to less than $100 a kilowatt-hour.
> “The sales price today for large volumes over 100,000 cars would already be under $100,” said Kreisel, who buys cells from vendors including Panasonic Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. “Unfortunately, nobody’s making 100,000 cars today.”
Is that true? Are batteries already approaching the $100/KWh mark? If so that's happening even faster than I expected, and I was one of the "optimists" for this.
Elon Musk when asked what he things about a specific BMW concept car (hubrid or full electric I can't really remember), said that it was a step towards the right direction.
So I guess this too is a step closer to a cleaner earth. What bugs me though is the mentality of some big automakers or even nations, they seem to be making steps to compete with tesla to put it in a polite way. They're missing the whole point of going electric; I'm not implying that Tesla does not, but they sure do look better in marketing terms - to my eyes.
He didn't say Tesla is missing the point, he said they are at least getting the point in marketing terms.
That is, that the switch away from fossil fuels is bigger than stories about petty details of industry competition, it's about the environment, and about orchestrating a radical shift in driving culture in general.
Musk markets Tesla as changing the world, while their competitors market themselves as... competitors. The scope is much less ambitious.
That's exactly what I was trying to say thank you. I'm not a native english speaker so I'm struggling with the right choice of words and overall sentence structure which often confuses others.
I totally agree with you. This is good enough reason for me to give my money to Tesla even if a competitor is a little bit better on paper. But right now they can compete only on price (which BMW and Audi probably don't want).
Nothing against garage startups. I started all my businesses in my garage. But if you are going to go out there and claim to "take on" a market leader you need to exist at a different physical, organizational, technological and financial scale.
As someone who invested in and got burned by A123 Systems a few years ago, I'll believe these guys are a legitimate company to watch when their battery packs are actually in a large number of cars for a few years without defects. Making LiOn batteries reliable enough for vehicles is harder than most people think, especially when you need extensive QA at scale.
I'm sure you know how much harder it is than a bunch of electrical and mechanical engineers who've been working on it for years. No doubt you're qualified to make such a statement because your expertise and experience in electrical systems and manufacturing trumps theirs. Probably you didn't read the whole article but their batteries have already been in at least one production vehicle for a couple years now (the porsche panamera plug-in). This is the kind of hn comment that I really hate. "Extensive QA at scale". What does that even mean?
*Update: Downvote away! I guess my comment is not HNy enough i.e using big impressive sounding terms like 'extensive QA at scale' to make knowing comments about things I really have no experience with.
I don't need to be a film maker to critique a film. OP makes no claims of his/her superior engineering skills, only provides typical concerns that people have.
That is a totally false equivalence. You need to be a film maker to make a statement like "shooting film on medium format is so much harder than people think". Especially when you're armchair critiquing a professional film maker who shoots with it every day.
I made no claim of the type you're implying, although I do work in the automotive industry. My comment was strictly related to history - A123 Systems was also a company of electrical and mechanical engineers attempting pretty much the same thing, and they failed nonetheless (you can look up the history if you're curious). My point was that technical expertise is insufficient on its own to guarantee success in areas like this where a minor manufacturing defect can brick cars or light them on fire months after they leave the factory. That's what extensive QA at scale means - every single battery that gets sold has to be extensively checked for performance and safety or else you get Galaxy Note 7 or A123... again.
GM produces close to 10 million cars per year. Calculating that out, it's 192307 per week...almost 100x.
TSLA isn't irrelevant, but definitely small.
BTW GM is selling a mass produced 100% electric vehicle. You can have one in your driveway before the end of the year. $30k after tax incentive, 255 miles per charge (more than Tesla Model 3)
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[ 0.22 ms ] story [ 195 ms ] threadTesla does. Period. Also it's not only about technical superiority but experience as well. Tesla excels here.
A: Hugely overpriced plug in hybrids
B: Have pathetic range
Also in the US, there's an even larger group of car buyers who will never drag race their cars, but like knowing that the car they just bought is excellent in some way.
It's easily one of the most popular EVs here in the UK (along with the Tesla, Renault Zoe, and Nissan Leaf). Very nice to drive with a stylish, comfortable, minimalist, premium-quality interior. BMW's software does let it down, though - at least when compared to a Tesla.
But still, i'd argue if you want an EV and can't afford a Tesla, it's the best option available right now (at least until the Bolt is released).
The EPA range is fairly realistic in my experience, at least with a Tesla. Hills and climate control (AC not so much, but heating is huge) will affect it, but I get fairly close to the official numbers much of the time.
The NEDC test is much more gentle and provides wildly unrealistic numbers. You won't achieve NEDC numbers unless you're doing something like a steady 55MPH on level ground with no climate control.
You can see this in action by going to Tesla's design page and switching the country between the US and the UK. For the US, the Model S 60 is rated at 218 miles and the P100D is 315 miles. In the UK, those numbers are 253 and 381.
BMW says 300km, or 186 miles, for the larger i3 battery under the NEDC:
http://www.bmw.com/com/en/newvehicles/i/i3/2016/showroom/ran...
But the EPA range is more like 125 miles.
Tesla's stated Model 3 range of 215 miles is the EPA rating, and so should be fairly realistic in mild conditions, less so in the winter or with a heavy foot. The BMW number to compare to would be 125 miles.
I wouldn't compare anything to the model 3, though, because I don't believe teals will hit their dates or price point.
Not a BMW fan at all, default detest of that brand, but I respect their trying to push into e-vehicles. i8 was a big mis-step though. Cannot believe anyone bought it over a Tesla.
Not a BMW fan at all, default detest of that brand, but I respect their trying to push into e-vehicles. i8 was a big mis-step though. Cannot believe anyone bought it over a Tesla.
Not a BMW fan at all, default detest of that brand, but I respect their trying to push into e-vehicles. i8 was a big mis-step though. Cannot believe anyone bought it over a Tesla.
And, yes, it's a hassle. Life with a pure electric is simple: Plug in at work, plug in at home, plug in at the mall, visit superchargers during trips if needed.
With the BMW's you have extreme electric range anxiety (only 80 miles) if you want to "be electric" and you have to now: plug in at work, plug in at home, go to the gas station by work, go to the gas station by home, plug in at the mall, gas-up by the mall, no superchargers during longer trips, so gas-up frequently due to the 10 gallon (or is it 8?) tank.
Then there's the complexity. You are lugging around 2,000 parts you didn't really want to be lugging around. Is that generator built to last like real auto propulsion engines?
Put it simply: It's a pain in the ass, it is likely to require more maintenance and it is embarrassing.
(and yes, the gas engine in this kind of drivetrain will mate to the electric motors during power intensive operations for a boost, but that's not strictly required in this kind of approach)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDr4L6BzpP8
The i8 was woeful in comparison in all departments. They are different types of cars but the only area the i8 could speak up a little bit was in the looks department.
I haven't tried the i3 but I think it has a certain style of it's own. I'm not a huge fan but I like to see it when it rolls by as it means one more victory on the way to electric cars (and one less diesel cloud filling my lungs).
Audi has a A3-etron which is not an electric car. Maybe they have some $500k etron-R8 but I am not sure if they ever built that.
BMW has the i3 which is kind of interesting, in a low-production-run, dip-your-toe-in-the-market kind of way. i8 is not an electric car. Some hybrids. Who cares.
Volkswagen has the e-golf which, in a sense, is more progress than the others since it's an actual VM car that actual people buy and is actually electric. It's not a car I would buy, but again - it's not a cutesy test market car and it's not a half-assed hybrid, so kudos to VW.
I don't know anything about Peugeot. Probably hybrids so who cares.
In conclusion:
We're in the same place we've been for 9-12 years: CEO of Audi/BMW/Porsche/Merc announce a major electric car initiative with consumer models (6 years from now) and a sexy concept car at a trade show. Then nothing happens. Then three years later, repeat.
Over and over and over.
YTD in Germany, Renault sold twice as many purely electric cars (1836 Zoes) as Tesla (978 Model S and 56 Model X.)
Source: https://www.goingelectric.de/zulassungszahlen/2016/ (in German only, sorry; data is coming from Germany's DOT)
I don't think Peugeot have done anything much notable in EVs recently.
VW/Audi, Porsche, BMW and Mercedes need to take a long hard look at themselves. The market is changing way faster than they expected IMO.
Just sell a bloody 250 mile range car I can buy for £25k. That's it. It's not hard. Do it, now. Not in 3 years. Now.
If it's so easy why don't you do it? Let me guess, you've never designed, built, or shipped any physical product.
You're like a first-year art student 'designing' the next iPhone in a 3D rendering program (Half as thick, with twice the battery life! Indestructible edge-to-edge screen!)
Update:
And keep in mind Tesla is not product of yesterday. Vibe for electronic car was around I think much longer than Tesla.But big names (Audi,BMW,etc) just ignored it for so long (maybe because of no serious competitor or corruptness -why do they need to work on something revolutionary when they are market leaders) until some guy stepped in and challeged them seriously.
Anyways that's what I read into it.
As consumers we assume hugely successful historical automotive powerhouses like BMW would have something ready to go NOW because they've been working on it already for 5 years (or ten years+ considering Prius).
Maybe not always fair, but it's generally what people are going to assume.
Maybe if the OEMs had spent the last 10 years designing and building electric cars instead of putting out diesel agents that broke the law in dozens of countries they would be in a better position.
Sure, I couldn't do it. But the difficulty has an upper bound based on a simple existence proof.
Tesla's Model 3 costs £27k, has a range of 215 miles, and is promised to start delivering late next year.
That's the state of the art. Best the world can do. Pretty sure that means it's hard.
State of the art is probably the Chevy Bolt, with its 200+ mile range and cost around $40k. And unlike the Tesla Model 3, it exists. There are lots of reviews of it, and full production starts next week.
No supercharger network.
No over the air software updates.
No 8 year/infinite mile power train warranty.
State of the art?
And you must have missed the announcement last week when they gave specifics on cost and range. The cost is what they promised, and the range is more than Tesla 3. It will go on sale for the general public at the end of the years. That's you and me, without having to put down a deposit, and wait who knows how long. That probably means those cars are churning out their manufacturing line now.
And you must have missed the news when one of Tesla's biggest supporter, Steve Woz, said he would ditch his Tesla for the Checy Bolt.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1106012_apples-woz-likes...
Give credit when credit is due. One of the largest and oldest auto manufacturers in the world turned around a, well received fully electrical vehicle on a short amount of time. It is reasonable priced and has more range than Tesla's Model 3.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1106012_apples-woz-likes...
... that will be quietly dumped in a year or two, just in time for a new "company changing electric initiative" in 2018, with production slated for 2024.
I hope they save these press releases and just put in new dates - it would be a shame to rewrite them every three years.
Traditional manufacturers must recall cars to fix a software problem, and charge customers for software upgrades. I guess it's hard for traditional car manufacturers to offer an integrated experience like that, you need to design a car from the ground up (including the software that's running in components from suppliers, like batteries) for that.
I think car makes just don't realize how big of a role, great software plays in how you feel about a car.
There's antiquated laws hat dictate manufacturer and dealer relationship, the most famous one being a manufacturer must sell cars through a dealer.
From a DOJ analysis:
> Auto production is a capital-intensive business and a franchise system allowed manufacturers to concentrate their resources upstream while accessing capital through franchise fees from independent entrepreneurs at the retail level.
Given capital availability and resources at the time, it made sense for the auto makers to franchise.
https://www.justice.gov/atr/economic-effects-state-bans-dire...
Dealers love to tell us how useful they are, but then they turn around and lobby for their privileged position to be enshrined in law and enforced by the government. Does not compute.
It's stuck between a rock and a hard place.
If there's no value in me buying a screwdriver set from Home Depot I should be able to buy it from anyone else, including the manufacturer.
In other words, there's no fundamental reason or "right" that says a dealer must exist between a manufacturer of a good and the consumers of that good. Forcing such a structure is artificial and causes problems.
For example, lots of people hate the car buying experience and dealing with a "mafia-like" (as a friend put it) dynamic between hungry commission-based sales people and the manager in the back. The whole process is disgusting. It took three hours to get out of the dealer last time I bought a car and it was a brawl to not get screwed.
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12564578
In the auto business dealers can be horrible places to walk into. The other day one of my friends at the gym bought a used car. She got royally screwed. I didn't tell her because it'd break her heart. They did the old "let's talk about the monthly payment" trick. She is mathematically challenged and couldn't have managed the stream of information during the negotiations. She will be paying $24K for a $10K purchase.
By the time other car makers going to release any serious competitor to Tesla , Tesla's software will be far advanced than those companies, and the thing about software is its design and implementation takes professional teams with a lot of experience. No matter how effective and advanced your team is, you need time to create a professional team to make mature software.
So the idea of other car makers somehow magically will design and implement software as mature as Tesla's , is wishful thinking I think.But software companies like Google, Microsoft, etc have required expertise in software development.
You don't need to buy your own SIM - it comes with its own international roaming SIM, with free data for 8 years.
As for what happens, nobody knows, because nobody's run out the four years yet. When they announced the four free years, they also said that the clock started for existing customers on January 1, 2014, so nobody will hit the end for another year and some.
I'd guess that it'll end up being a paid subscription after that, but nobody really knows yet. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla doesn't know yet. I wouldn't be too surprised if they just make it free for life, since it's pretty cheap to provide and so important to the car, but that might just be wishful thinking on my part.
There is a rumor their cellular costs far exceed their Supercharger electricity costs.
And I'm personally still annoyed at BMW from about 8yrs ago when my X5 was occasionally throwing a spurious trivial dashboard warning and I asked about it at the dealer when I went in for some other warranty service. When I got back there was a $200 bill for doing a flash update to some controller, and the dealer insisted that it was BMW that kept it off warranty and charged them for each install.
While I could perhaps see some trivial $15 service fee to install it, charging $200 to fix their own damn bug is pretty outrageous. They should just be installing the full set of accumulated updates every time the car comes in for service.
But that's not how the auto industry thinks, so yes, that is a huge advantage for Tesla, even if the others are starting to come around, they are effectively a decade late.
This is what they say their advantage is against tesla. So be it, but I doubt it is revolutionnary.
More importantly, Kreiser, as far as the article explains, doesn't build entire cars. They sell drivetrains and battery packages. This is completely different, Tesla has a way bigger scope.
Tesla now has an edge on the technology front, but once the traditional European brands pick up, with technology that is better than Tesla (as assumed in the article), the question is if Tesla can keep it's market position. (This is in my opinion the main idea of the article)
I agree that the European brands came way too late into the game, and Tesla was clever enough to recognize this weak spot. But once Tesla starts building cheaper cars, will those who spend $70.000 on a car buy the "average" Tesla or a Mercedes, BMW or Porsche?
Don't get me wrong, I really admire Tesla for how much market share they were able to get in such a short period of time. Definitely well deserved and visionary! But it's indeed a question how this market will evolve further. This Austrian company might have an impact on it.
Toyota already owns 10% of Tesla.
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry#Top_vehicl...
BMW, Audi and family are not as strong a brand as Tesla is. (For me at least)
Another advantage that is unstated in the article is that this moves the choice of electric vehicles from specific models to optional trim levels: instead of having to choose between the BMW 3 series and the i3, one could choose between the 320, 320d or the 320e
Unilike a fuel tank these could be distributed evenly across the base of the car, lowering the centre of gravity. A 320e wouldn't have this base to store the batteries, but it could store them under the bonnet but that would make for a very poor weight distribution which would affect handling.
To rebut this - the article has a link to a Kriesel-modified 'Scoda Yeti' that can go up to 350km/217miles[1]. So the advantages of purpose-built models don't seem to include 'range'.
1. http://www.kreiselelectric.com/en/projects/electric-yeti-4x4...
> “The sales price today for large volumes over 100,000 cars would already be under $100,” said Kreisel, who buys cells from vendors including Panasonic Corp. and Samsung Electronics Co. “Unfortunately, nobody’s making 100,000 cars today.”
Is that true? Are batteries already approaching the $100/KWh mark? If so that's happening even faster than I expected, and I was one of the "optimists" for this.
So I guess this too is a step closer to a cleaner earth. What bugs me though is the mentality of some big automakers or even nations, they seem to be making steps to compete with tesla to put it in a polite way. They're missing the whole point of going electric; I'm not implying that Tesla does not, but they sure do look better in marketing terms - to my eyes.
That is, that the switch away from fossil fuels is bigger than stories about petty details of industry competition, it's about the environment, and about orchestrating a radical shift in driving culture in general.
Musk markets Tesla as changing the world, while their competitors market themselves as... competitors. The scope is much less ambitious.
The 4 Horsemen Of A Teslapocalypse
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4007849-4-horsemen-teslapoca...
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/09/22/teslas-short-selle...
Enough said.
Nothing against garage startups. I started all my businesses in my garage. But if you are going to go out there and claim to "take on" a market leader you need to exist at a different physical, organizational, technological and financial scale.
*Update: Downvote away! I guess my comment is not HNy enough i.e using big impressive sounding terms like 'extensive QA at scale' to make knowing comments about things I really have no experience with.
I wish all this electric cars best of success, but 'taking on Tesla', this is not some small irrelevant company, let's be real here.
Tesla is leaps and bounds ahead of everyone, not only with having electric car, but also this car is like from future.
GM produces close to 10 million cars per year. Calculating that out, it's 192307 per week...almost 100x.
TSLA isn't irrelevant, but definitely small.
BTW GM is selling a mass produced 100% electric vehicle. You can have one in your driveway before the end of the year. $30k after tax incentive, 255 miles per charge (more than Tesla Model 3)
http://www.autoblog.com/2016/09/21/chevy-bolt-goes-255-miles...
https://electrek.co/2016/06/13/tesla-production-rate-2000-ca...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors
Also, it is not just that it is electric car, have you been in one, it is like from the future. No other car is like that.