Ask HN: What is now on the fringe?
I was watching a video of Steve Jobs the other night talking about the experience of the Homebrew Computer Club and how these guys were working on the fringe rather than mainstream. Steve Jobs was looking at the fringe for new ideas and innovation so I was wondering what do we see at the fringe these days? What are those ideas that are not mainstream today but could become the "personal computer" level of idea in a decade or two.
31 comments
[ 3.4 ms ] story [ 68.6 ms ] threadI am personally working on open source tools for architectural design data communication, hence my curiosity.
A Tiny House on Wheels or THOW can be built for between 5000 and 50,000 dollars depending on specifications. I have even talked to two people (on HN and on Reddit) on the verge of homelessness who are building small transports for shelter (several hundred dollars) which they can haul by bicycle. These can be very effective in the colder months.
The sticking point is Land, or rather, Parking. Tiny Housers are very political active and slightly devious but for people in cities in particular this is tough.
There is a nice technical problem to solve for here if you could build a closed loop system for each input and output for a small house. I don't know that the technology exists for getting it to work properly even on a small scale at reasonable cost.
Because if one could solve that, then lots of problems go away.
Furthermore, because it is "cutting edge," it isn't yet accessible to most poor people. A lot of tiny houses are insanely expensive per square foot, containing quite high quality materials. They are basically aimed at eccentrics, not nirmal people with a limited income. For $50k, you could build a house that is 600-1000 sq ft on a foundation without a lot f bells and whistles.
The average new home today is nearly 2500 sq ft -- more than twice the size of the average new home in the 1950s -- and contains fewer people than the average house in the 1950s.
We don't need eccentric high quality trailers. We need normal houses with actual foundations that aren't trying to compete with the Taj Mahal for grandeur.
This isn't remotely solved and the primary areas that need to be addressed have nothing at all to do with construction technique. They primarily have to do with policy reform and financing mechanisms.
Well sure. It means you might have have trouble getting post delivered to your door or getting utility hookups in a city, or trash collection.
However those kinds of things are much more easily hacked than this:
"This isn't remotely solved and the primary areas that need to be addressed have nothing at all to do with construction technique. They primarily have to do with policy reform and financing mechanisms."
I completely agree! Meanwhile we have a problem... Get back to me when it costs 5-10 years of average wages to purchase the average house. Until then Tiny Houses are at the least a good interim solution to not becoming homeless or massively indebted or ripped into by landlords.
> Furthermore, because it is "cutting edge," it isn't yet accessible to most poor people. A lot of tiny houses are insanely expensive per square foot, containing quite high quality materials.
Remember I said 'in theory', it was a hypothetical. A lot of Tiny Houses are very expensive per sq ft because of the kind of people who are building them. Mine is for example because it is stuffed full of cool features, materials and designs. I believe one can build a mass production of Tiny Houses for 5k-7k per unit which have all the basic necessities.
> They are basically aimed at eccentrics
I'll take that as a compliment. I prefer 'unique individual' ;-)
> not normal people with a limited income.
You double your costs per sq ft if you hire somebody else to do everything for example.
Tiny Houses are very accessible to the lower middle class and to the working class, because they tend to have the right skillset or because they have some amount of cash flow. Most Tiny Houses are built and finished for about 25k. That is good number when contrasted with the alternatives.
If you have close to zero cash flow, you have two options available to you, perhaps to be used in concert.
1. Reclaim waste materials. People have built Tiny Houses for as little as 500 dollars although I don't recommend this if you can get a job and save up. But if your time is effectively free then this is a wise way to spend it.
2. Construct a micro sized Tiny House to be transported by bicycle. That's about 200-300 dollars. Better than being homeless with no shelter.
I think we're coming at this subject from different premises. Mine is 'obtain shelter' and yours is 'obtain housing'. I think government related problems aren't going to be solved for a long time and that in light of that a lot of people are going to get screwed over unless they adopt something like Tiny Houses.
Yup, that's why in my original comment I talked about affordable housing, not affordable shelter.
Good for you that you like your current lifestyle and are a fan of tiny houses. It doesn't solve the problem space I am suggesting for the question posited.
However there are still three problems.
0. Zoning in the UK and USA is prohibiting new construction. This is a fact that can't be got around. It is a political problem.
1. House prices. Extant legal construction builds have gone way above what millennials can afford on their stagnant wages. It is a logical consequence of monetary policy at zero % interest rates can cheap debt but many people, including myself, have no desire to be buying a building which will take several decades of work to pay for. Renting isn't a solution either.
It used to take between 5 and 10 years to pay off a mortgage. Builders I've talked to say their new builds in the US are never less than 350k per unit.
2. Work is not what it used to be. Even jobs which have decent wages have not kept up with the kind of house price inflation that exists in London and San Francisco. People go where the work is, and it is becoming ridiculous to shackle yourself to a thirty year debt when the job you went there for lasts about five-seven years on average.
Summation: Tiny Houses are a good solution to a world of stagnant opportunity and a schizophrenic economy. They are about putting a backstop against getting fucked by going bust or becoming homeless to put it plainly.
There are some communities on the net who are working on homebrew cybernetics. I've seen experimental designs for transdermal data/electric ports, health monitoring implants, and implanted secure elements, &c. CyborgNest recently started taking pre-orders for a "north sense" implant[1]. Definitely my favorite fringe.
[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11778249
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surface_piercing [2]: http://www.cyborgnest.net/north-sense-faq
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyc
I think it could work, and best if paired with an application project. Not everything is scalable and a long, hard march may be required to create some kinds of systems, especially with respect to Agent based computing.
Personally I think Agent based computation is the next big thing after Social, but it is hard to tell what form it may take. I am far from convinced that Apple or Google have the chops to do what is necessary, because it would surely require them to violate their own interests and probably legal obligations.
Talking of that sort of thing, you should look into Urbit.
Urbit is a network computer that could hypothetically allow Agent based computation to actually work.
https://urbit.org/
Urbit is definitely fringe science stuff, I'm sure Walter would approve.
I think Augmented Reality will abruptly allow a lot of non-geeks to suddenly be aware of certain realities (imagine seeing a calorie counter on your food, or the fact their data flows are going off somewhere outside of their control), so I hope that will accelerate progress in an Agent based direction.
Agents will be easier to build if they are visualized, they may allow for metaphorical understandings across millions of people.
Part of the reason I think this area is hot is that it's harder to do than apps. Every "app" I can think of has already been done, and in fact there's probably a dozen versions of it languishing in app stores. Manufacturing is harder, and is often geographically local, so there are fewer competitors and more niches.
Another leading indicator for me is the general rebellion of young people against the fact that "shop class" has been taken out of schools. Lots of kids are trying to find ways to be "makers". In my state, when I was in school the "dummies" were pushed toward taking vocational classes in plumbing, welding, etc. Now (20+ years later) the vocational classes are the most competitive, prestigious classes that students fight to get admitted to.
If I had to guess, the new manufacturing is going to be smaller scale, extremely high quality, locally sourced materials, with some kind of digital "twist" on the business models.