> Paddy Power says Clinton has an 85.7% — odds of 2/11 — chance of winning the election, a figure that it believes amounts to a "done deal."
I agree that Trump winning would be a long shot. But what's the benefit of paying out early? 85.7% isn't the same as 99.9999%, so why don't they just wait?
I work in the gambling industry, and the amount of money bet on this market by Irish and UK customers (most of Paddy Power's userbase) would be a relatively very small amount. So they settle all bets on Clinton as a winner now and reap all the free publicity (which PP are experts at doing). Aside from that, the type of user betting on this market are not going to withdraw their winnings, it will go straight onto the next horse race or premiership game :)
I could see settling the bets at a discount if bettors decided to accept it, but Hillary could have an incapacitating stroke or some other health episode too severe to hide, that would knock her out of the race.
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[ 2.4 ms ] story [ 22.5 ms ] threadI agree that Trump winning would be a long shot. But what's the benefit of paying out early? 85.7% isn't the same as 99.9999%, so why don't they just wait?