An excellent summary of the factors contributing to the uncertainty in the forecast this year. I've not seen a write up based on other models that gets into the details like this blog does. Will certainly be interesting to see how it all plays out.
5%+ for Gary Johnson would mean the Libertarian Party is here to stay and will only grow going forward. It also means that at the next election it will have significantly more funds that may even be enough to get the next LP candidate in the debates. If it can become a more European-style center-right party and a little more mainstream, a good Libertarian candidate may even win the presidency in 2024. And that's when the decline into obsolescence of the Republican party will begin.
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