Ask YC: To continue, or not to continue ... how do you know?
I was just about to shrug the whole last 6 years off as a huge waste of my life, but I just learned that IBM recently put together a research group specifically dedicated to this idea. But no matter how much money or manpower they have, I know enough about this area to know that they missed some windows of observation that will neve be repeated, and I can count on one hand the people (aside from myself) who have intelligently documented this phenomenon and have given it enough thought to gain some possibly practical insight into the topic. So in a way, I finally feel vindicated. As weird as the idea is, at least I'm not the only one who thinks it may have some profitable, practical application.
To throw in the towel in this uphill battle, or not? Or pick up the phone and call IBM and see if they'll give me a consulting gig? In other words, something that 99% of people I've come across have considered a completely useless area of specialty has suddenly become interesting and I feel like I have the advantage since the insights I've gained are the result of unique events that will never be replicated.
I feel vindicated, yet the last 6 years or so have been soooo frustrating trying to convince people of something that seemed so intuitive and obvious to me, but left most people I spoke to scratching their heads. And yet, I imagine that in the next few years, even more people will be looking into this area.
Anybody have any ideas? Any perspective and experience in a similar position would be appreciated. The "I told you so" factor is good ... but I've spent soo much time and personal resources on something that has progressed at a glacial pace. I guess what I'm saying is, throw in the towel and call IBM, or keep trying the startup attempt route?
58 comments
[ 1.9 ms ] story [ 106 ms ] threadNot saying it's because I'm smarter or anything, it's just a freak accident that resulted from my background and personal interests which came together in some unexpected ways to give me insight into what was worth paying to in this area while most people would have dismissed the whole area as not worth paying serious attention to to begin with.
So - question is:
a) Screw it, it's taking too long
or
b) It may be an uphill struggle but this is a good sign that it's at least worth continuing
If I give up and sell out, at least I'll have a comfy position at a respectable company where people smarter than me would respect what I have to offer because I have 6 years worth of thinking about the problem on them.
But the startup route ... hell I can't even find any programmers to put a demo together ...
I could make a career out of this "there" ... or just keep fumbling in the dark making teeny tiny progress (if any) while my personal/professional life suffers.
I don't know anymore. That's why I posted this, I guess.
Quite frankly the "75" year old me is saying, "Do what you want, but keep in mind you're going to need good health insurance as you grow older."
No they won't. You'll be a part of a dispirited bureauacracy, and nobody will care. They probably won't even finish the project.
Your best bet is to get a bunch of young college age programmers to work with you. They are unemployed and are ready to hit it out of the park. If I was in NYC I would hear you out and try to help. Start looking for talent where the people are hungry.
Columbia couldn't seem to care less, and the entire NYU structure has so far gotten ... hold your breath ... 2 resumes. Only one of which was remotely relevant, but not experienced enough to take initiative on this.
And since I'm not a programmer, I don't have the experience to provide guidance in that department.
I don't know why, but NY is not very start-uppity at all. People here fantasize about going to work for the IT dept. of Morgan Stanley or something.
Get a job and continue to work on this in your spare time. Fund development and be smart about making what you build as generally-useful as possible (an enabling technology rather than a solution). If the market pans out for this other company, there will be opportunities for you... assuming you executed.
Do you have any idea how many "Learn X in 21 Days" books you can read in 6 years? :-)
Just to give an example, a few days ago a "bored developer" posted a post saying he was looking for good ideas. Whenever I see MBA/Financial-types posting on Hacker News looking for programmers, the response is usually, "Why should I partner with you - what value do you offer since you can't code?"
So I asked a simple question on this post: Suppose I share some ideas with you that you wind up developing. What do you offer in return? I was hoping maybe an arrangement like "I'll code on the weekends for your idea if you share an idea I like enough to pursue" or something. Instead everybody kept downmodding my post; last time I checked it was in the negative something range.
So if I can find people willing to go it on equal terms ...
In six years you could have learned to program well enough to build a kickass demo--the fact that you haven't makes it pretty clear to developers that you don't believe in your idea enough to commit your own time to it (other than, apparently, thinking really hard about it)...but you'd be really happy to have someone else commit time to it and share the results with you. Hell, with the quality of modern tools, if you started today, you could have a proof of concept running in a year, even if you've never seen a terminal or a text editor before. Python, Ruby, Perl, and even PHP, make developing simple applications, well, simple.
Sorry if I seem to be dismissing you without knowledge of your idea or your actual work in the field, but this is what you're facing in trying to get someone to write your software for you, for free. This is what you have to overcome, and I hope I've made it clear that the way you are presenting it is not going to do that. What you think you're saying, and what an engineer hears you saying, are apparently two very different things. I suspect you think you're saying, "I've done all of the legwork and research and hard work leading up to actual development, and now I just need a technical person to put these well-researched pieces together." But, an engineer hears, "I've done nothing but have super cool ideas for the past six years, and now I'd like you to implement my vague and over-reaching specifications into a product, for free, and share the results with me."
You can't really blame them for not signing on, right?
I didn't put much credibility in this line of reasoning before, and now that I found out that major companies are putting millions into just reasearching this idea, I put even less. Crap executed brilliantly is still crap.
> and you can't pay developers to work on your idea
Actually, the money's not the problem. I can raise the money but I'd like to put a demo together as I imagine that would get far better terms. But ultimately if all else fails I'll get the money and hire. My only thought was that I'd prefer to share with a good technical partner that I worked well with than keep a lot and "hire" as you put it.
> In six years you could have learned to program well > enough to build a kickass demo--the fact that you > haven't makes it pretty clear to developers that you > don't believe in your idea enough to commit your own > time to it (other than, apparently, thinking really hard > about it)
In six years I spent most of my personal time single-handedly researching and interacting with something that it's now taking, from what I was told, a starting team of about 15 IBM research guys to just to START looking into. And that part is only half the total idea. They'll never in 10 years get to the second part. When exactly was I supposed to find the time to program on top of this? Not to mention that it wasn't immediately obvious that it would even be feasible. And as for "committing my own time to it" ... I think actively researching it for 6 years is a lot of time to commit to anything, considering I got no financial/academic/professional compensation/recognition.
> ...but you'd be really happy to have someone else commit > time to it and share the results with you.
Share the results with me? So let's see ... I came up with it, spent years researching the feasibility of it, the market is huge, and I have the connections to get financing, and somebody who'd code it would be "sharing the results with me?" Wow. Does it get lonely up there on your pedestal?
You don't have to commit time to it. But that's what startups are about - they're not for everyone, but some people decide, "this is a good thing to commit time to". And they wouldn't be doing it "for me" they'd be doing it for the "results" as you put it, none of which would be possible if I didn't explicity explain what they should be commiting their time to in the first place.
> Hell, with the quality of modern tools, if you started > today, you could have a proof of concept running in a > year
You inspire me! Hell, if I start today, maybe in a year I can learn enough about combustible engines and transmissions to tell my mechanic to shove it.
And in a year I'll be having back surgery. Maybe if I get started today, I can learn enough about the human body and related surgical proceedures to tell my surgeon to go shove it.
Come to think of it, why did I just waste all this money on an Apple computer. I should pocket the money, learn to build my own computer from scratch, and tell Apple to shove it.
Hell, why did I buy these jeans? I should have grown some hemp and made my own pants. That would show Levis!
> in trying to get someone to write your software for you, > for free.
"For me for free" would mean you write it, I keep all the equity and I use the subsequent investment I can get with my personal contacts to pay myself a hefty salary.
I'd imagine there would be some equity exchange and any subsequent investment follow-on would be split, hence it's not "for me" its for themselves.
And since I'm not a programmer and this is not college, it's not "my software" as if though it was a homework assignment or something.
> But, an engineer hears, "I've done nothing but have > super cool ideas for the past six years, and now I'd > like you to implement my vague and over-reaching > specifications into a product, for free, and share the > results with me....
the excessive examples of sarcasm don't help, and your other comments could be insulting, and offending the people that you're trying to get advice from doesn't give much credence to your cause. (trust me, i would know http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=127717)
And yet, if there are any financial results, all of a sudden all the results of "my idea" are 100% his, and all of a sudden it flips and becomes, "Why should "I" ... share "my" results with you?"
So when it's just an idea, it's mine. When there's money to be made, all the money belongs to whoever coded it and it's up to him to "share" any money made off my idea. But that's only if there's money to be made.
It just seemed incredibly beyond belief and revealed the kind of thinking that makes me reluctant to discuss it openly with programmers. Like there's no real money on the table yet, but even hypothetical proceeds are automatically his property to share with me as he sees fit.
It's like, if this is how it is when the money's not real yet, I can only imagine what it would be like if it was really on the table ...
Imagine I told you I had a secret that would make you 100 MILLION dollars. I'll tell you the secret, but it will cost you $10,000 to learn it. I'm thinking you wouldn't bother. Why? Because the real value of the secret in this kind of asymmetric exchange is only apparent after it has been shared, so the deal never happens. In the back of your head, wouldn't you also be wondering why I didn't use the secret to make myself 100 million and why I'm so concerned with $10,000 if I have a secret worth so much?
I have a folder of over 40 of my ideas I don't have time to get to and so your idea would have to win out over the alternatives, but it can't beat the alternatives for anyone if you never share it.
Perhaps its most valuable as a story when you're older about "the one that got away."
If your idea is really good, and you are significantly more knowledgeable about the field, you should be able to at least give a broad picture of what this is about. What field, who are the customers, what expertise is required?
The feedback everybody gave you is really awesome. The community here is one of a kind, but everybody still has their own interest. How would anybody know if they're willing to pitch in until you at least let them know what you want to do?
I've gotten emails from fellow readers who share similar interests. But as of yet, nobody knows what you're doing.
1) You have to work on your attitude. I've noticed that you tend to look at the negative in a post and respond to it - this thread is a good example. People aren't trying to put you down, they're trying to help. And doing it for free in their sparetime. You should appreciate this. In the things I've been involved in I've been the glue that holds together the biz guys and the developers, so I can see it from both sides of the fence. And most developers don't like personal attacks. The way to handle engineers is to show them that you appreciate their work, are interested in their field, show themm that you have the capabilities and intent to carry through, and show them that they can trust you. Which you don't do by attacking them.
2) An idea isn't worth anything. I know from other threads that you have discussed this point before, but notice how most engineers stick to this point. I've had lots of people wanting to start something with me - and as soon as I hear "I've got a great idea, you just have to do xxxx)" I back away. What I need to hear is "I've done some serious research/business planning/budgetting/talking to customers/whatever and I would like you to be my partner. I basically need to see some footwork, and this needs to include some proof of concept - not a pie in the sky project.
Hope it helps :-)
2) If it's detailed enough, it can be extremely valuable.
"Well, where to start. First, considering all the crap on the internet, I'd say having a really cool idea is a good start."
Sure. Problem is, since you can't or won't execute on the idea yourself, you have to convince someone else that your idea is worth more than the dozen ideas they already have brewing. Engineers don't have a shortage of ideas...they have a shortage of time in which to implement those ideas, and sometimes a shortage of patience for the boring crap that surrounds making a business of those ideas. Convince a good engineer that you are capable of managing the boring crap, and have a good idea, and you might get them to sign on.
"As for the "for free" part, see above. As for the "and share the results with me." part ... well, I'll tell you what. I'll keep my idea and financial contacts to myself, and you can keep all the results you get from not working with me on this idea all to yourself while I keep looking for other people. That way you make all the big bucks all by yourself. Don't spend it all in one place ..."
You've got yourself a deal.
So if the results haven't happened yet, it's just my idea. If the results = lots of money, it's all theirs to share with me as they see fit.
To paraphrase you, you can't really blame me for being cautious with programmers, especially if this thinking is typical of what goes on in their minds, right?
Same here....
If it is really a good idea, find a partner who complements your skills. Assembling a team is probably the hardest part. If you can't assemble one, all odds are against you, no matter how good the idea is. If you don't have people at your disposal, you have to convince other people the idea is good; you'll have to prove it some way or another.
If you're like my friend, who has extensive knowledge beyond what competitors would have in several years, the idea is unobvious enough that even if you outline it understandably, you don't have worries about competitors. If it isn't at that level of sophistication, my bet is that even if competitors haven't thought through things as thoroughly as you have, they will have implementations that are simply good enough.
You may be right about the "good enough" part. Good enough with huge marketing seems to win quite often in the marketplace.
Then why not reveal the idea? I'm curious...
One of the guys running the project works at an office on Madison Ave. I'd love to start a startup based on this, because I just know it'll be cool, yet I can't say since finding out about this recent development I haven't spent, oh, 5 hours or so since fantasizing about what it would be like to pay off all my credit cards, have health insurance, benefits, etc. and go to work on Madison avenue near Central Park every day.
And instead of arguing with people about the idea, I would be in an environment where people who understand it would appreciate the insights I have. Plus they have a pretty big budget to play with from what I understand.
Just getting paid to do what I've been doing for fun ... and appreciated for once instead of seeing the usual "What the hell are you talking about?" look on people's faces when I've tried to discuss it.
> The try and fail route is more rewarding imho.
I suppose you're right in a way. Maybe both? Maybe, "I've tried, it didn't work out because of timing, but now I can apply my insights and sell out in style!" (?)
So it was more like 6 years observation and thinking in a sort of real-world lab experiment, and only the last year or so of "apply lessons learned".
But since I'm not a programmer, and most programmers I've come across are working on their own projects, I couldn't figure out exactly how to proceed ... and based on the limited feed back I got, whether it was even worth proceeding or if I was just fooling myself and seeing an oasis.
Plus regardless of whether I cared enough, now that I found this out I realize it's a valid thing to more than just me. So now I care more. It's just been a long, unrewarding (except the intellectual curiosity part), clumsy, guideless trip so far.
My "adult" self tells me to give up and move on, or perhaps profit from it by working for "the man" ... but then again, what if I wind up 10 years ago in a situation where I say, "Dammit - I should have tried for just one more year - but instead I gave up and now look what happened - it took off right after I gave up and somebody else is doing it."
However, it sounds like you need two things (er...people). A star programmer and a star evangelist. The first can be had (for a price). The second is harder to find. Either you need to become one or you need to hire someone that already is one.
Reference: http://blog.guykawasaki.com/2007/06/by_the_numbers_.html
Even if the market hasn't changed yet, I'd say that them devoting brainpower/budgets into looking into it full-time might meand that they, too suspect it may change this way. Quite honestly I can't believe it didn't change this way a long time ago.
Yet another is to publish your idea and possibly get hero status when someone that understands the relevance of your idea and has the necessary resources/skills to make it happen does so. You'd probably feel good about those 6 years spent thinking about it and researching it not being completely in vain.
I'm a bit freaked out thinking that great ideas can die with their originator if they never publish...
And since the legal departments of most major corporations use game theory in analyzing transactions, their lawyers would easily tell them it's in their favor to pay me what I ask for just to get me to agree to shut up.
That's just crazy enough to possibly work. I wish I could up vote you like 20 times for inspiring this thought.
I ran my previous business for nearly seven years, before throwing in the towel. It was profitable for about six of those seven years, and it kept me in food and houses...but it wasn't a success, by my definition, and I won't twice make the mistake of continuing a business that I don't believe can win in its market...not just get by, but win. Perhaps you're not making that mistake, but I'd suggest you change your tactics immediately. Six years is an awful long time to have nothing to show.
Instead of having you convince people, why not have some evidence to do the talking for you? Learn to put ideas into UI flow charts, functional specs. Show a paper prototype to customers and see if it is something they would pay for. Do whatever you can so that other programmers won't look at you like a "dreaded idea guy that wants 99% equity."
As for call IBM or try the start-up route, I would at least call them to see where they are with their research.
I wouldn't say that. For example I have some practical insights into how to apply it that is apparently worth millions/time for a major company to just explore it. and that in turn is based on the belief that there will be a huge market for it in the near future. So I'd that's not quite "nothing" ... although it's hard to put a figure on it.
As for the "couldn't convince anyone to join you" ... well, in NYC people either: 1) work on their own dream startup projects, so I never even get to discuss my thing becasue they're too busy sharing theirs ... 2) go to work for i-banks, Google, or now, Facebook. Bit hard to find programmers who ask you to compete with the terms a well-funded company like that puts on the table.
> "dreaded idea guy that wants 99% equity
Funny thing - I never approached anybody with anything near thos terms. I always said I just wanted what everyone else in the primary group got. So if it's me an 1 other guy necessary, 50-50. If it's me, 3 programmers, 2 other guys doing who knows what, and 4 whatevers, 10% each. I'm not the one with the reluctance to share.
> I would at least call them to see where they are with their research.
Do you imagine they'd share that with me though? Like, "Oh, hey, I just found out about something I wasn't supposed to find out about. BTW, what exactly are you guys up to and how far did you get? I won't tell a soul, I promise!"
Stop worrying about programmers. If you have been toying with this idea for 6 years, take another one year and learn how to program. if you're cash strapped there are plenty of online tutorials and good old manuals. If have some cash outsource it to india or elance. if people are paid with money, they sometimes tend not to 'care' what they are working on, but give results.
The fact that IBM is doing research in this field means that they think that it might be worth it to work on this.
I think you need to act on it and if you spent that amount of time mulling it over, checking into things. get it done and see what people think, let the market decide. If someone doesn't get it, explain to them why they should. people thought blogs were stupid, all the other search engines didn't buy into google, now they wish they had.
I was in a similar thought process when i started my site, after i started it i kept coming across competitors i never even heard of. the fact that people are using my site and getting results was my 'vindication', after all there are a lot of other services that guarantee so much but didn't work for some people.
as far a i know ideas are worthless. pg talks about it some where. put it out there and see what happens, if IBM looks into what you are doing and blatantly copies you, sue them, but expect a long drawn-out legal battle that you won't win.
Lastly, people might have a hard time helping you out here if you don't talk about your idea. People might be interested in helping you out, by closely guarding your idea people might not help out.
The only thing I would say with regard to something I can't figure out is that while I couldn't care less if this gets copied, and in some ways prefer it, if I was first to deploy, I'm not in a position (yet) to deploy first and I'm just trying to get as many things lined up as possible to increase my advantage before "blurting it out". I may find an ally, but I may inspire 3 competitors who now have the idea AND the technical ability I lack to put it together faster than me. Can't find a solution to this conundrum.
When I started, I was initially a bit distraught at the fact that there were a lot of people taking, and making a lot of money in my space; Everybody with any experience told me "They are solidifying the fact that there is value in that space, go do it better"; If you honestly believe that you can do it better, and you have the option, eh, why not?
About the do it better part, a bit harder. They have resources, but if they're just now starting to figure out what to do ... I know exactly what to do, but ... kinda hard to do it. So far it's a draw outcome wise, but they're making nice salaries doing something I like, meanwhile I lose interest in my gig while I spend more and more time doing this as a side project for free.
I don't understand why many people are so determined to keep their ideas secret a secret. First off odds are somebody has also though of the same idea. Not every great opportunity is immediately obvious in the early form of the idea. An idea alone does not make a killer startup imo -- execution is very important. Second, if only you have the expertise to make this idea work then all the more reason to share it and hope to find someone that buys into your dream.
Just my two cents worth. From my experience there is nothing more frustrating then not iterating towards your goal.
Aaaah - but if I blurt the "what" to someone who can do the "how", then they have the "what" and "how" which means my negotiating leverage = 0 and I'm dependant on their good-will. Just to give you an idea of why I'm reluctant, see some of the above posts where people say things like, "If I partner with you and do your idea, why should I share the results with you?"
Going it alone is hard. It's necessary if no one agrees with you, or no one else would do it right. But here? I don't see the compelling reason not to team up with IBM. You'll cooperate with people and see valuable work done; you'll be part of something good and effective.
btw don't make threats lightly, and maybe you shouldn't post about them in public in advance.
edit: i don't know why it's dead. and your reply to this is dead too and i can't reply to it. but the parent of this comment is not dead.
Edit: What da? Everything I post is auto-dead? I looked at the guidelines I can't find something I obviously crossed over, so ...
In 96 I did my first startup, based on an algorithmic way of sorting links. Basically somewhere in between Google and del.icio.us. Me and my partner thought that Altavista, which at the time was the best search engine out there, fell short. We secured seed founding in the amount of ca. $100.000 and developed a working prototype of the technology. After this we needed venture capital to create and promote the product. This proved impossible to get. We talked to every VC out there, but the result was the same: "nobody needs another search engine", and "you can't make money on that" I was, however, convinced that the idea was sound so I carried on for almost 1½ years after funding ran out. In the end I had to give up.
It seems to me like you are in a similar situation.
Based on my experience what I think you should do is assess the situation seriously, and have someone you trust help you do this. When you're in the middle of it it is really hard to see the pitfalls and shortcomings of an idea. Look at what alternatives you have, try and write them down with pros and cons of each. Then take a decision. And do it.
Most important: Once you've made the decision don't look back.
If what you know is as important as you say it is, then either (a) IBM should be happy to pay you a handsome sum for it, possibly without needing you to commit an endless day job, or (b) you will be able to raise money and finally get that startup off the ground, provided that you can convince investors of your personal ability to start the company. Both of these options are better than what you had on your plate before IBM joined the fray, so I am puzzled by the attitude that comes across in your writing. You sound like you're sulking, which is not only very unattractive to any would-be co-founders or investors, but also contradictory to a rational account of your situation: didn't you just "win"?
* Also, talking to IBM need not imply agreeing to what they want. Find out what they'd offer for your expertise, and what kind of commitment you'd have to make. If it sounds good, take it. If not, do it yourself. You don't lose any of your advantage until you actually spill the beans. Certainly don't use threatening language. Simply based on how you've written this posting and responded to comments, I already have a strong gut-based bias against working with you.
And hey, I like applied math, so I’ll probably enjoy coding well enough.
Another observation I'd like to point out is that in 6 years, you could have learned to program and done it yourself. I've learned to program and started 3 companies in the past 4 years.
So, my question for you is, do you really believe in this idea enough to do what it takes to make it happen? If not, then go to IBM and milk what you can of it.