Reasons why the "HTML5 vs. Flash" debate is idiotic (blog.gonchuki.com)

All good arguments. Unfortunately, Apple will cause a large reduction in the use of Flash, unless it becomes available on the iPad. scribd, for example, already decided to make the move to HTML5 even before the Apple/Adobe clash. Flash might be able to do more, and browser makers might be implementing an unratified HTML5 spec, but that is how it's going to happen.

Bottom line: If a site wants to work on the iPad/iPhone, it needs to avoid using Flash.

The debate should not only be about Flash vs. HTML5. With SVG-Support in IE9, there's another argument against Flash coming along.

SVG is already a pretty good alternative to flash for some tasks on iPhone (eg. interactive maps).

If SVG gets the same boost like JavaScript in recent years, then SVG could be even more dangerous for Flash than HTML5.