not this time. Think of all of the buyers - people wanting bitcoin. Now think of who is selling at this price - I don't see a compelling reason to sell. More buyers and not enough sellers = price goes up.
"It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower" - William O'Neil
If something (a commodity) has limited supply and there is non-zero demand => it has a value.
Demand for fiat currencies is at least generated by legal tender laws (you need it to pay taxes). Demand for bitcoin is at least generated by the need to publish some information in a global immutable distributed censorship-proof table. Those two sources of demand are the fundamental ones (I would say intrinsic). There definitely are more. Some demand is for example generated by "store of value" function or "medium of exchange" function. These functions emerge as secondary functions when a commodity is selected by market for its favourable properties.
So I would disagree that "bitcoin is not backed by anything". You might have written "I don't see the intrinsic value backing bitcoin" or "bitcoin is not backed by anything tangible". Those statements would be correct.
Yes. From $10-15K to $5-7K. Just like it collapsed from $1000 to $300 in 2014, or from $270 to $100 in 2013, or from $15 to $10 in 2012, or from $30 to $3 in 2011.
how would HN know? no one can predict with actual certainty.
However,
It is true that as time goes on, volatility reduces. high price makes it harder to fluctuate as quickly, and as new bitcoin continue to get mined, the volume increases as well.
As Bitcoin price increases, there will most likely be attempts at achieving virtual heist of exchanges. Usually the Bitcoin price goes down right after a big one.
If exchanges are not maintaining good security practices, it will happen sooner than later.
What you really want to know is whether to buy now or not and there is no answer for that.
But as others pointed out, bitcoin & cia is no longer a crazy idea from Internet. It is now a deeply studied idea that has been around for quite a long time, so people started to trust in it, and after all, this is mainly a matter of confidence.
This may not answer your question directly, but it certainly represents the volatility implied by your question:
1/5/17 "Bitcoin lost $3 billion in market value in 40 minutes[0]"
[0]https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13332551
12 comments
[ 3.6 ms ] story [ 45.3 ms ] thread"It is one of the great paradoxes of the stock market that what seems too high usually goes higher and what seems too low usually goes lower" - William O'Neil
Same sentence applies to fiat currency too although there is so much interest in keeping those stable that they are unlikely to tank.
Demand for fiat currencies is at least generated by legal tender laws (you need it to pay taxes). Demand for bitcoin is at least generated by the need to publish some information in a global immutable distributed censorship-proof table. Those two sources of demand are the fundamental ones (I would say intrinsic). There definitely are more. Some demand is for example generated by "store of value" function or "medium of exchange" function. These functions emerge as secondary functions when a commodity is selected by market for its favourable properties.
So I would disagree that "bitcoin is not backed by anything". You might have written "I don't see the intrinsic value backing bitcoin" or "bitcoin is not backed by anything tangible". Those statements would be correct.
Specifically from countries that are removing bills like India or Venezuela.
Years ago you had to buy dollars or gold but Bitcoin is somewhat opaque to that governments because there is yet very little people involved
However, It is true that as time goes on, volatility reduces. high price makes it harder to fluctuate as quickly, and as new bitcoin continue to get mined, the volume increases as well.
If exchanges are not maintaining good security practices, it will happen sooner than later.
But as others pointed out, bitcoin & cia is no longer a crazy idea from Internet. It is now a deeply studied idea that has been around for quite a long time, so people started to trust in it, and after all, this is mainly a matter of confidence.
It is nowhere near stable: https://twitter.com/sama/status/791754651506909186