I actually have a much simpler heuristic for knowing when something originates with Russian intelligence.
Just follow the chain of reasoning being proposed to its eventual conclusion, and then check what that conclusion is. If the conclusion amounts to, "And therefore, the only political actors you can trust are the reactionary nationalists", it very likely originates with Russian intelligence.
Why the Russians? Well, because Russian intelligence has been disseminating propaganda along exactly those lines for the past century, starting, if not earlier, with the world's most famous propagandistic literary forgery[1]. The content, at this point, can be mad-libbed, and usually is mad-libbed with little reference to facts or actual circumstances. All it has to do is sow paranoia, point to every democratic or revolutionary faction as destroying the nation, and then conclude, "Therefore the only people you can trust are the reactionary nationalists, ie: the Tsarists/Fascists/Stalinists/Arabists/Duginists/Trumpists/National Front/Neo-Nazis."
Once you detect the mad-libbing, you can skip the argument, jump to the conclusion, and know what you're looking at.
I believe the intent of Assange's statement that a 14-year-old could have made this hack, as well as Trump's tweeting of the statement, was to emphasize the non-sophistication of the attack (commonplace phishing), contrary to the idea we've been hearing from officials about how only a state actor could pull off such a thing.
Any sure-fire proof would make the U.S. look just as guilty as Russia. Even if the U.S. knows for sure, it will look a lot worse for them if they try to release the information. The chances that they know for sure and will release the proof are roughly 0.
The problem, though, is that they released such useless information. If we trust what has been released, the "Russian hackers" were very far from elite, and far below the level of many American teenagers (let alone professionals). I'm skeptical both about the accuracy of this report and the accuracy of the claim that it was Russia. Either all/most of what's been reported is false, or Russian hacking experts weren't involved. And if the information presented is incomplete, I don't see a reason to defend the U.S., because that would mean they're doing the exact same things in Russia.
> APT29 has been operating in its current form since at least late 2014. We suspect the Russian government sponsors the group because of the organizations it targets and the data it steals. Additionally, APT29 appeared to cease operations on Russian holidays, and their work hours seem to align with the UTC +3 time zone, which contains cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.
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[ 2.9 ms ] story [ 25.8 ms ] threadThis Twitter thread lays out the most concise and compelling case I've seen, compiled from open-source intelligence:
https://www.twitter.com/pwnallthethings/status/8166215536432...
Just follow the chain of reasoning being proposed to its eventual conclusion, and then check what that conclusion is. If the conclusion amounts to, "And therefore, the only political actors you can trust are the reactionary nationalists", it very likely originates with Russian intelligence.
Why the Russians? Well, because Russian intelligence has been disseminating propaganda along exactly those lines for the past century, starting, if not earlier, with the world's most famous propagandistic literary forgery[1]. The content, at this point, can be mad-libbed, and usually is mad-libbed with little reference to facts or actual circumstances. All it has to do is sow paranoia, point to every democratic or revolutionary faction as destroying the nation, and then conclude, "Therefore the only people you can trust are the reactionary nationalists, ie: the Tsarists/Fascists/Stalinists/Arabists/Duginists/Trumpists/National Front/Neo-Nazis."
Once you detect the mad-libbing, you can skip the argument, jump to the conclusion, and know what you're looking at.
[1] -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Protocols_of_the_Elders_of...
The problem, though, is that they released such useless information. If we trust what has been released, the "Russian hackers" were very far from elite, and far below the level of many American teenagers (let alone professionals). I'm skeptical both about the accuracy of this report and the accuracy of the claim that it was Russia. Either all/most of what's been reported is false, or Russian hacking experts weren't involved. And if the information presented is incomplete, I don't see a reason to defend the U.S., because that would mean they're doing the exact same things in Russia.
Before that, my top 5 visits from countries were: United States, India, United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia.
This year, however, it somehow jumped and became: United States, Russia, India, United Kingdom, and Canada.
> APT29 has been operating in its current form since at least late 2014. We suspect the Russian government sponsors the group because of the organizations it targets and the data it steals. Additionally, APT29 appeared to cease operations on Russian holidays, and their work hours seem to align with the UTC +3 time zone, which contains cities such as Moscow and St. Petersburg.