Ask HN: How likely is a US civil war?

8 points by adius ↗ HN
I guess people won't draw their guns and march against each other, but there are other ways to fight a modern war: Refusing to employ people from the other party, DDOS attacks, ... What do you think?

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I guess people won't draw their guns and march against each other

I imagine most people in countries that have violent civil wars think that before it actually happens.

> but there are other ways to fight a modern war: Refusing to employ people from the other party, DDOS attacks

Do you really think any civil war with people taking up arms, did not start with protests and civil unrest? What you're speaking of is illegal and if it isn't will become illegal as soon as it starts becoming a problem for the ruling elite. That's the kind of escalation that eventually leads to uprisings.

And no, the likelihood of that happening in the US is too low IMHO. The people are too complacent and comfortable with the status quo to take on the risks that come with civil disobedience.

I've always thought the same about our complacency.

But if Trump makes a habit of "sending in the Feds," as he's threatened to do in Chicago, I don't see that ending peacefully. Maybe not actual civil war, but certainly violence.

And I think it would have some official local backing too, as cities and states tell the "Feds" to GTFO. If it's the Army, it becomes a constitutional issue, and I don't see Federal law enforcement being big enough to make a Trumpian dent.

And as for a civil war, it doesn't have to be about secession. I don't see why I should have to secede just because there's an ... I don't know what to call him, in the White House. If there were troops quartered on the high school soccer field across from me, I'd definitely be walking over there and asking them "Man, WTF? Is this what you signed up for?"

In the extremely unlikely event that CA actually attempts to secede from the States, I'd say there is a non-zero chance that WA and OR will probably come with.

That ends up being about $3,000B of GDP lost, and more importantly, it means that the US no longer has a west coast. The implications of all that go well beyond that as well. I think there is a very real chance that a second civil war would break out as a result. The States wouldn't want to lose the West Coast and it seems super unlikely that they'll just let it happen without some kind of intervention.

All this is contingent on CA actually making a move to leave the Union though, which by itself is very unlikely.

I guess we said that about Trump presidency a year ago as well, but here we are...

Based on your definition - "refusing to employ people from the other party, DDOS attacks" - I would say we're already sort of there.

People do get fired/rejected for their political views. Which, and don't take my word for it, I believe is not illegal. While religious beliefs are protected, political ones are not. Again, I just read that somewhere, so, to take with a grain of salt.

As to an actual civil war, I don't see it happening. A lot of people are pissed and outraged, but IMHO this is nowhere near the level that triggers a civil war. Let's face it, people in America still enjoy a level of comfort most the the world can only dream of.

It won't happen. Because it's not North vs. South anymore, it's uneducated vs educated, rural vs urban, old vs young. Your grandpa voted for Trump.