I would hardly call this a mistake. He choose taking smaller option package that would be more likely to be in the money than sticking with his larger option package that would only become valuable if Apple's stock skyrocketed.
He chose the safe play rather than risking it on the company he decided to devote his life to. The numbers show that he made the wrong choice, hence a mistake.
Thats like saying I chose to play it safe and not play the lottery rather than buy a lottery ticket every week. One week my numbers win and that shows I made the wrong choice?
There are so many variables that he doesn't have control over that if he took the bigger options he just would have been gambling. It is flawed logic to look at the outcome of an event that has so much variability and hidden factors and say that someone made the wrong choice. I would bet that if he was faced with the same situation now, knowing the outcome of this past event, he would still make the same choice because the smart choice is to not make wild gambles.
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[ 0.20 ms ] story [ 25.6 ms ] threadThere are so many variables that he doesn't have control over that if he took the bigger options he just would have been gambling. It is flawed logic to look at the outcome of an event that has so much variability and hidden factors and say that someone made the wrong choice. I would bet that if he was faced with the same situation now, knowing the outcome of this past event, he would still make the same choice because the smart choice is to not make wild gambles.