This sums up my opinion on the iPad. It just makes casual consuming fun.
My wife still sings "Flash, ah-ah" to me every time we talk about it, but she's warming up to it. Watching Modern Family on the ABC app while snuggled together on the couch was a revelation for her.
We don't use it for everything, but the things we use it for sure are fun.
It doesn't replace my MBP, but neither did my smartphone.
Not sure why this is downvoted... a bit of trolling, but in general it's right. If Apple starts selling a large range of devices that just complement the laptops and phones, without making a good product in itself -- people are going to end up with a lot of gadgets. It's fun for a rich customer (I've got a music player, video player, phone, communicator, web browser device...), not so fun for a typical customer (I've got a choice between a hard to use laptop, or one or two easy to use devices).
Many of us are geeks here and buy gadgets just because they're shiny and new. But many normal people would rather get an easy to use laptop instead, or a "laptopised" dockable ipad.
Sales figures are not comparable, unless you know how many people have laptops and how they use it.
To respond to the reactions though: What are their reactions really? Do they want iPad, or do they want an easy to use touchscreen device. Do they have any computer already, or is it their first? (I think we know the answer to that) Essentially - do they really want a specialised device for each of their activities and as which point will they say "that's enough - I just want something that integrates my N devices, like those old laptops".
I think people would buy a "laptopised" (as in - general purpose with full-featured modernised windows for example) dockable version of iPad and use it as their main computer in many cases. Not sure if that's what Apple wants - because now you can have both macbook and the ipad and ...
I agree, and though I don't have and don't want an iPad, I can see where we cross a line where the iPad does just enough to make it a good multi-use device so we aren't buying devices again and again.
At the same time, this is why I always thought that we don't need another device, just a better way to output our smartphones to a larger screen.
Well, if you don't mind pedantry, here goes. It's actually 80% of relatively close friends on a family unit basis, so it's 4 iPads out of 10 friends/5 couples that I see on a routine basis.
That's an incomplete sampling of my universe of friends. A lot of my casual friends - the ones I haven't seen since February or earlier - I don't know one way or another, but I'd guess the rate would be lower among them.
The data's also tainted, since most of them had the iPad in hand when they made the statement. Anyway, what I really was trying to focus on is that if they purchase it, it will likely be at Christmas and as a gift.
As far as demographics, if you mean income, I don't really know. I'd guess $100K-$120K yearly income per family. Upper middle class, I guess. Folks that make enough money that their wives stay home with the kids. Not hurting for money, but $500 is still more than pocket change.
That's what bothers me really. It will be a gift; people want it, but are having problems to justify it. I don't really have problem with people buying it, but this trend is a bit dangerous from the global perspective... Apple is good at releasing limited functionality devices, but where's the minimum limit with that? If it's good, people will buy it anyways, because people like "having" stuff - it's hard to say how many specific devices are enough 4? 5? How much limited functionality electronic waste do we have to produce? How much money do we want to spend on N polished devices instead of 1 general device, which will be always cheaper than N in reality.
Edit: Almost forgot - some universities are already testing iPads as "give away to students" devices... Seriously, that's a path to another "Hand in as .doc file", only a thousand times more dangerous.
We've already got game consoles, handheld games, laptops, smart phones, music players, video players, etc. all basically targeted at the same general group of people. I'm waiting for the second wave of generalised devices now - I want only 2 of them: pocket player / communicator / game (apart from games, my N900 does a good job here for now), dockable general laptop.
Actually I was thinking about them while writing this... it's one of the things that annoy me. I'm actively trying to reduce stuff by not having a 1000 mixers and a glass of each kind. I even use an integrated spoon/fork/knife thing daily (and actually enjoy it).
I was going to get one the other week. But then got a Nexus One and saw how open and usable Android is. The iPad is just so 'meh'. It's not got a holographic projection screen. It hasn't got flexible rollout OLED screen.
It's just a large iPod touch :/ There's nothing really new and 'wow' about it. If I did get one, the kids would use it to do painting on for a bit, then it'd get stuck up on a shelf gathering dust.
I think there is nothing wrong with having the right tool for the right job. As computing power becomes cheaper we are really just left with the question of form factor.
My 2.5 year old 1200$ PC has a 4 core 2.4 GHz CPU 4GB RAM, 750 GB HDD and a reasonable graphics card. I could buy a better PC for that price, but I am probably better off filling out new form factors than getting a minor upgrade. Think of how woodworkers end up with such a huge number of specialized tools. Their basic tools don't become outdated so rather than buying a slightly higher RPM band-saw they go for a tool that is really useful a small percentage of the time.
Smart phones are still undergoing fairly rapid development but it's slowing down and their average prices are already decreasing. So, expect to find the next niche soon. (PC)>(Laptop)>(Smart Phone)>iPad?>???
PS: The Smart Phone is the evolution and union of several fairly different device that shared the same form factor. They are really the union of a Cellphones + MP3 player + Game Boy + PDA + Digital Camera's + Wireless Modem, but you get a slightly worse version of each one. I could easily see a iPad type device that absorbs other things with it's form factor. Add a 10c infrared port and you get one of those touch screen style universal remotes. Or, add the right base station and they could be the brains behind a Wii style gaming system.
Think of how woodworkers end up with such a huge number of specialized tools.
The difference is that a computer is a computer (whereas woodworking tools are not interchangeable). Some people (like me) only want one device, because if you use one computer for everything it becomes almost a part of you in a way that wouldn't be possible if you were continuously context-switching between multiple devices.
Right now I use a laptop for everything. When smartphones get good enough (real keyboard via bluetooth, built-in mini projector turning any flat surface into a screen), then I'll use one of those for everything and ditch the laptop.
I like your take on smartphones. People are grossly underestimating their potential due to current limitations of computing power. My prediction is that as the iPhone gets faster, the iPad becomes less desirable.
These devices are mostly network devices... no amount of added CPU power in the iPhone (which it doesn't really seem to be lacking as-is) is going to make it have a 10" screen.
Honest question: what could you do with a phone that had 10x as powerful CPU in it than the iPhone does that you couldn't do with a current smartphone?
I get that you want to have one device to work on, but even a 17" laptop is a huge compromise on screen real estate relative to two (or three) high resolution 24+" monitors. My 15" laptop is somewhat portable and has a high resolution 1900 x 1200, but that just means it's a barley acceptable development environment. Yet, it's still way to large to take snowboarding or just traveling around when I am not expecting to use it.
Now chances are I am not going to want to start coding on the slopes, but I may want to double check a weather map check movie times etc. And the simple fact I keep my phone with me all the time means I use it for those casual questions. I could go to my car and boot the laptop, but because I have a more than one tool available I get more options and save time. Think of it in these terms, I rarely want to use GPS so I did not think buying a device would be worth it, but while slightly less useful than a dedicated device I am often really glad I can get basic GPS functionality on my phone.
PS: I don't have an iPad but I can see it could be vary useful.
I actually bought an iPad instead of a MBP. Not sure how good that is for Apples bottom line (good, in the long run I suspect) but so far I'm very happy with my decision. I take the iPad to the bar, the porch, meetings, use it to stream pandora in the car and much more. I wouldn't do half those things with a laptop, and for the 'work' things I do on it (note taking, task management, etc.) the iPad is good enough.
When I'm -really- working, I want my dual monitors, wired LAN and an ergonomic chair. For me, it hasn't been yet -another- device.
My MBP is four years old now. I spilled water into the keyboard a while ago and it just hasn't been the same. I a few of the keys don't quite work, the screen is pretty dim, and sometimes when it wakes from sleep it doesn't properly detect the screen and defaults to 640x480. At the time it was a desktop replacement, but since then I have upgraded my desktop and am quite happy with it.
I'm seriously considering an iPad as a replacement for my MBP. My primary usage of the laptop now is web browsing, email, and the occasional game, and it is a bit huge (I have a MacBook Air at work, so the old MBP feels heavy). The iPad would do all those things perfectly. For me it would be a laptop replacement.
Why should it make laptops and smart phones completely obsolete? I do think that the new breed of iPad-like tablets can replace quite a few computers but probably not all of them.
With computers as cheap as they are and families usually owning several computers (kitchen or living room laptop or netbook, a few laptops or netbooks for the kids, desktop for the office and so on) I really fail to see how a device which can replace one or two laptops in such a household is a bad thing or one more thing to buy.
Being a bit pedantic here, but the iPad at 1024x768 doesn't have a higher resolution than 720i/p (1280x768) or 1080i/p (1920x1080) TVs, though it does generally have a higher DPI as a result of it's generally smaller size. Your iPhone has a better DPI than your iPad, but I don't think you'll argue that it's superior movie-viewing device.
Typical internet comment there. Did you think about it ... at all?
Television the only specific example in the post he was replying to, so that's probably what he was talking about. (Did you... nah, never mind.) Calling the ability to snuggle together on the couch while watching TV a "revelation" does indeed invite a challenge. Why? How? It isn't much of a discussion if I have to go buy an iPad myself to understand what people are talking about. (Why is it such a high-rated comment? Are people with iPads just endorsing the implication that its virtues can't be analyzed or described in any way?)
No, mostly because it was on demand. There was no way to watch it on my television. (On demand > time shifted)
In the past, I would have setup my laptop. I never considered that a hassle, but now I do. Also, the app itself was a cue. I probably wouldn't have thought to go to abc.com had I been on my laptop, which I primarily use for working rather than playing.
Watching Modern Family on the ABC app while snuggled together on the couch was a revelation for her.
Not putting the rest of your points into question, I'm just going to guess that for the rest of the world not being the US, this thing will never happen and we will still need our dedicated servers/laptops and BT/Usenet apps and the commercial, "smooth", DRMed solutions will still be utterly useless.
I guess I'm still disappointed that what in I consider the "digital age" where the world should be one marked, one solution for everyone, every single big player still does everything in their power to create artificial barriers, restrictions and markets for some pipe dream that it might increase their (relevance and thus) profits.
I guess my monthly expenses will still remain at $0 for cable and $15 for usenet.
I concur. I have the Wifi with a mobile hotspot. I fly a lot and it's much better on the plane. No wifi in flight most of the time, but I can download content easily enough. Much more comfortable and usable than the Macbook in the plane seat.
I think this is the potential of tablets in general. If others, like Notion Ink's Adam, are able to deliver the features/price that they're promising, the whole category could be a big hit. The iPad is just a hint of what's to come.
You better hope that Notion Ink also delivers on the EXPERIENCE as well. Look at what everyone else is saying in this thread; the iPad is a hit because of the experience of using it, the attention to detail, not the feature set.
If it doesn't deliver on experience people will not buy it in the first place (because no one will be talking about it) or they will return it. I don't care how many features you pack into a device, if I don't smile while using it it's a failure.
That's what everyone said about Android phones, but in the end, many people were delighted to get an experience a cut below Apple's as long as the features and pricing were a cut above. It seems there is plenty of room for both approaches.
Judging by the fact that 75% of Android users are in the United States, it may be safe to say that most of them chose an Android phone because it wasn't on AT&T.
Not to say that the GP was particularly insightful, but:
I suspect he derives money indirectly from his blog - for example, by securing himself as an authority on tech investing in an industry where reputation is quite important.
OP does have some point in that Wilson's experience is hardly a common one - first, buying an iPad just to see if he'd like it, second, having email/browsing so important to him that he's even considering a 2nd iPad just to make the experience slightly better.
Basically, the early adopters have now bought their iPads and are sitting in the terrace with a glass of wine reading emails. It's fun, but it's not "this changes everything", it's "this gadget is so cool".
The iPad specifically, or slate devices in general?
The former I'm not sure about, the latter, quite possibly. My thinking is that if I were running the IT department in a manufacturing firm looking for ways to bring these devices into my factories, I'd be giving preference to touch-oriented web apps rather than iDevice applications specifically. You retain a bunch of advantages of web apps -- easier and simpler deployments, generally faster development, more choice of languages -- and once the Android tablets start to hit, you avoid locking yourself into a single supplier.
I think android tablets will have a problem of having non-standard interfaces. There are already point of sale machines using the iphone because all iphones have the exact same bottom connector so it makes it fairly standard to interface across. All android devices have different ways of hooking up to -- I don't know why device manufacturers always like reinventing the wheel when it comes to hardware interfaces. I already own a few dozen different phone chargers at home, the only one that hasn't changed is the iphone.
Disclaimer: I write PLC & SCADA system code for a living in the industrial and wastewater markets.
Real time plant floor control/monitoring is not an unsolved problem and an iPad/tablet accessible web app was not the solution. See page 12 of the link below[1] for an example of what industry really works with. In some applications seconds can cost thousands of dollars, a limb or even a life. I'd never leave that up to a web browsers JavaScript engine.
It doesn't mention IP ratings but I guess you could use something like that. I never would and I certainly wouldn't submit that in a proposal to a client.
Ummm...what? Businesses other than Apple stores would have to be out of their fucking minds to tie any part of their business-flow to a device that is as locked down as the iPad. Maybe if apple decided to change their licensing and it screwed up something that Lockheed Martin or IBM was doing, apple would help them out...but me? With my 200 employees?
Sorry, Ryan! Here's a $5 iTunes gift card!
I do not understand this fixation people have with the iPad mattering to manufacturing/warehousing people. We have solved this problem many many many many times over. Intermec, Symbol, Zebra, and Toughbook are the name of the game, have been for 15 years, and will be for the foreseeable future. If I can't drop the device from 4 feet onto a concrete warehouse floor or parking lot over and over and over and over again, all day, every day...then it is useless to me and nearly everybody else in the manufacturing/warehousing industry.
If apple pulls the stick out of their butt about user-replaceable batteries, opens the thing from a technical standpoint, and builds a rugged version of it...then maybe (hey, they could call it a toughbook!), until then, it's going to remain something that hip kids with more money than sense show to their friends and something that technophiles use to read their email while sitting on their terrace and drinking wine.
I'm not trying to troll, I just have an ongoing concern when I read articles like this.
Another way to look at it is, I've been convinced by marketing and countless articles on HN telling me how amazing this new gadget is that I went and bought one.
Now I need to find a place it fits in my life and convince myself it's something I didn't know I needed and that I didn't waste my money.
I've only owned it for a week but I'm sure that a year from now I'll still love it because it's a great product, not because it's new and shiny.
This is a powerful endorsement of the iPad. To me the message is you can't really judge the iPad based on the features it has or the list of things it can or can't do but instead it has to be experienced.
I agree -- using the ipad over my laptop allows for a much more casual experience. i find myself picking it up/putting it down MUCH more than i did using my laptop (pre-ipad) .. using my laptop was/is a much more focused experience for me. I readily admit that using my laptop is generally faster/more efficient for most typing-intensive tasks, but i am really enjoying how the ipad's (re?)introduced casual computing to my life.
Do you believe that the 'casual' aspect of it will remain? I remember that people used to love laptops when they first came out (yes I'm old) because they could take them to a park and work. They found it relaxing and not as "business" oriented.
Fast forward to today and they've lost that vibe. I'm kinda feeling like the iPad will also lose that after people get used to the 'newness' of the form factor.
But there you go--people loved laptops because they could take them to a park and work. You don't hear about people working on an iPad.
In fact, laptops probably became stressful to people just because having a laptop meant you could work--and were expected to work--whether you were at the park, on a flight, on the train, or wherever. An iPad is explicitly unsuited for serious business, therefore it won't be expected to use it for serious business.
It is, of course, relative. My laptop is _more_ casual than my desk top, and I'm finding my iPad more casual still.
Now, I often use my laptop _as_ my desktop computer; hook it up to a larger monitor, mouse, an external keyboard, stereo/video/telescope/interociter/history eraser button/etc. But that doesn't mean that my laptop experience isn't casual when I plop down on the couch, sans accoutrements, and surf hacker news, listen to music, or watch a movie.
And the iPad is more casual still. And the fact that I _can't_ do many things that are not casual may help to keep it casual. Maybe not...
(And for the record, just carry the iPad into the "little room down the hall" for the _ultimate_ in casual computing...)
The key aspect of the ipad/tablet experience is being able to use it in new contexts (on the kitchen counter, making guacamole). Opportunities abound for savvy developers who are able to recognize some of ways in which tablets will fit naturally into our daily lives.
With two small kids my family spends 80%+ of its time in the kitchen/living room/play area -- far away from the office with the Computer. So, having a "kitchen computer" is actually a very useful thing (as superfluous as it sounds).
I got an iPad instead of a netbook because I thought it'd be easier for my non-technical wife (my 3 year old daughter showed her how to use it).
I'm still holding off on the iPad, but this is probably the #1 reason I want one. Every other thing I'd imagine myself using the iPad for, I currently use either my laptop or phone.
I like to cook and frequently adapt recipes I find online; I don't like to bring the laptop into the kitchen because it takes up too much space, and because of the risk of spills. The iPad could be mounted on the face of a cupboard or propped up on a stand to minimize risk of damage, while having everything I need close at hand.
This comment was extremely enlightening for me, since I can't think of a single kitchen amongst my friends and neighbors that doesn't have a computer. It's split about 50/50 between notebooks and iMacs.
Also, when we remodeled our kitchen two years ago, the showrooms all included kitchen computers.
I'm not rich, either. My neighbors are mostly rank-and-file government employees or servicemen on assignment at the Pentagon. But kitchen computers are a de-facto standard.
I don't have a kitchen computer (Well, technically, I have a laptop which I sometimes use in the kitchen,) but it's the kind of thing I've always wanted if I could find a machine that would fit my needs exactly and I had the money.
I would like to use it not only for recipes, but also calenders and email, as well as seeing the weather and the news and maybe checking Facebook and the like. For me, not sitting down in my office just to check the weather or morning traffic helps to prevent me from accidentally living my life in the office.
Kitchens are where people gather and do lots of other things besides cook and eat.
I'm sure every family is different, but a kitchen computer is a computer in the kitchen that you use when you are there and need access to a computer. Email, Google, surf, Youtube. Who knows, you might even look at a recipe and or play a game while cookies cool on the counter ...
- as primary email device for the stay-at-home parent
- for recipes and online shopping
- for playing music
- for looking at family photos
- for Skype/iChat
The screen is just glass, and there's no keyboard for little things to get stuck into. I use mine in the kitchen all the time. If a little something splashes onto it, I just wipe it off with a soft towel. Much better then a dedicated kitchen computer.
I had a similar response. Perhaps it's me, but if I spent $500 on such a device, it would never be just sitting anywhere (and especially not in a kitchen where it could easily be doused with liquid or have something heavy fall on it). In fact, this is one of the things that would make me nervous about purchasing one. You've got so much money tied up in this small thing that seems so fragile and vulnerable to damage.
You get over that. I was similarly terrified of mine at first, but have come to realize that it's very resilient. It was the same with the iPhone at first too, but now I kick it around like any other phone (and it's fine).
I like the part where he mentions the android tablets. Frankly I love the idea of a tablet computer but I just can't bring myself to use the iPad. If only a good android tablet was out right now, I'd give up the rammen noodles for one. (I'll just steal some tomatoes from the neighbor for food ;p)
Are you craving an android tablet because it's a better/faster experience or because you don't like Apple? I haven't used an Android phone in about a year, so I'm missing the connection. What evidence is there that an Android tablet will be superior, besides the draconian App Store policies?
Apple just frustrates me as a company (which is probably a silly reason not to want an iPad, I suppose)...
There are the ridiculous app store policies (which is a HUGE problem) but there are also little things. For instance, have you ever tried to use an iPhone in bed? I keep mine sitting next to my pillow so that I can listen to music while I fall asleep...
Doing this is a huge pain in the butt. If you turn the thing sideways to change songs, it goes into the oh-so-useless "cover flow" interface. If I'm browsing the web, the phone decides that it should rotate the screen for me...
These things are fixed...but only if you void your warrant and jailbreak it...why? Honestly, the only thing I can come up with is that it is some stupid power trip by the folks at apple... "Bah! We designed it that way and we're never wrong!" JUST EFFING FIX THIS GUYS! It's a very very common problem.
I was traveling last week...my laptop's battery needs very badly to be replaced (only holds about a half hour of charge anymore), so I decided to transfer some podcasts to my phone so I could listen to them on the plane...now, this isn't as simple as most of the blackberries I've ever owned (the blackberries, if you're not aware, simply get mounted as an external storage device...copy and paste MP3s to it and it will happily play them for you), but firing up iTunes should be too much a problem, right?
Wrong. iTunes refuses to add songs to the device unless I erase everything on it and "sync" it to my laptop. WTF? Apple, this is completely unnecessary! So I lose everything on my iPhone in order to listen to a couple of podcasts? What the hell, Apple.
Okay, howabout email syncing? 4 times an hour at the most. Seriously? The phone is absolutely capable of more than this! So it will hurt the battery a bit more, I don't care! Warn me about it when I select "check email 1 time per minute".
Don't even get me started on Google voice (which I use as my primary phone number and voicemail)...
And then there is flash...
Oh, and howabout the newest version of their iPod? You cannot disable having album artwork take over half of your screen? Why the hell not?! These just seems like more power-tripping my Apple/Jobs.
I've played with the iPad (while I was waiting in the apple store for three hours for my appointment with the "genius bar"), it seems...kindof neat I guess? But apple leaves such a sour taste in my mouth from the experiences I've had with the iPhone that I cannot imagine myself ever buying one.
These aren't specific problems that I think I would have with an iPad, they're examples of what I feel is Apple's philosophy on dealing with their customers.
Basically "We're right, we don't care about your problems, piss off."
Why can't I get the same sort of rotation lock for my iPhone? (well, I can, but it was something that was made by the community and something that will void my iPhone's warranty [which is funny because I am literally on hold right now with the apple store to make another appointment with the "genius bar" because the phone is currently only displaying a white screen])
I don't like the way apple runs things is the main reason, the other is that I've been having fun learning to develop for android. I love how easy it is to add apps not even on the market. Point the phone's browser to the .apk and done or use adb. (security risk blah blah) Real easy. My phone rocks as much as the iPhones I've seen.
When I first got my iPhone, I had to charge the battery daily for a month because I just couldn't get over it.
Now it lasts days and I use it more like a phone and a casual gaming device while I'm bored.
Bloggers should no better. It's too early to make statements about the impact of the iPad on computing. Let's see where we are in 6 months.
I'm not saying it will go one way or the other, but I imagine the hype will double with the 3G, then in a year we'll start seeing true reviews of how the iPad is used. I'm personally holding out for 3G.
EDIT: Somehow I missed that 3G is available, so I give it 6 months :)
This experience about mimics mine with the iPad. The first two weeks or so I couldn't put it down, and now it's just kind of something that I have on my coffee table.
I still find it very useful - I can now just "hand a web page" to my wife, it's great for having around in the living room for random web surfing on the couch, and yes, reading the news or doing a crossword while having a beer on my back patio.
I still can't type properly on the thing to save my life. I didn't realize just how awkward it is. I need to set it on a flat surface and type on it like a regular keyboard, and if I'm going to do that I'd prefer a laptop.
At first it's this completely super-cool thing and you wonder how you could live your life without it.
Then it just becomes a piece of stuff that you have to carry around because it does a couple of things better than all the other stuff you already carry around.
Just want to say that my experience with my kindle is very much unlike this. The only thing that keeps me buying dead-tree books right now is the ability to bike over to Barnes and Noble and browse them, and my ability to keep a couple under the seat in my Jeep without fear of them being stolen.
At first, I liked it, but it still just felt like an MP3 player for books...the first time I really "got it" was when I was walking my dog one morning. I usually bring a bag with my that has a couple of tools in it (mountain bike habits die hard, I guess), as well as my kindle. I decided to stop near the lake and let my dog rest a bit. My friend had recently recommend that I read "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep", and I was considering riding up to the store and buying it when I realized that I already had it...in my bag, all I had to do was pay for it.
I booted the kindle, opened the kindle store, and was reading the book all in less than a minute. This is absolutely amazing to me because unlike my phone, or my laptop, or whatever other device I have that can read text, the kindle really really does feel like reading a book. It doesn't hurt by eyeballs, it doesn't get warm and feel strange in my hand, and the battery lasts for almost a month without charging.
Nothing about my kindle feels like it's getting in my way...this is pretty much exactly the opposite of my experience with every piece of apple product I have ever used (save for the early ipods...can you still sync them with amarok and gtkpod?).
Would you willingly give up your iPhone for whatever you used before though? The neat factor definitely wears off these things, but their game-changing utility remains.
I got mine on Monday after much debating. Initially I was going to wait for the second generation because I know it will be so much better. In the store, the iPad felt a little heavy and basically like a big iPhone. After a few weeks, I took the "you only live once and it's cheap enough that I'll just by gen 2 if it's really that much better." By last night, I realized this thing is revolutionary, or the start of it. It's perfect for consuming the Internet and other information. The apps make a difference. Instapaper Pro, Good Reader, SimpleNote. I bought Numbers last night and I'm investigating whether Omnigraffle is any good(many poor reviews and a few positive ones and it's $50)
Missing multitasking. Need To keep Pandora running. My only disappointment.
As flying changed from an esoteric daredevil activity to a dreary consumer experience, many consumers gained access to great utility and tremendous wealth has been created. As cars changed from finicky things requiring enthusiast skills to keep running smoothly to closed, consumer devices, many consumers gained access to great utility and tremendous wealth has been created.
So it will go with computers. (And also note, that expert/enthusiast flying and driving experiences are still readily available for those with the burning desire.)
Not that I disagree, but the analogy seems flawed. The "closed consumer" cars and airplanes of today also are more capable than the finicky, esoteric products they replaced. Conversely, the reason many people thought the iPad would fail is that it's less capable than its seeming competition.
Not that I disagree, but the analogy seems flawed.
Your analysis is flawed. See below.
the reason many people thought the iPad would fail is that it's less capable than its seeming competition.
Yes, but the smart money is on the capabilities of the iPad increasing over time. (In fact, we already know this to be true.)
Also note that the consumer-relevant increase in capabilities in cars and airplanes have been quantitative in specific metrics. (More reliable, able to go farther, faster, more efficiently.) The decrease in capability for the iPad was qualitative in terms of tweak-ability, flexibility, and accommodation of user expertise. Those are not the qualities that appeal to the mainstream user.
I'm sure a lot of people complained when automatics came out, because they're less flexible. (You can't push-start them, you can't easily rock them out of ditches, and there's less flexibility in terms of using compression braking.) The flexibility isn't what consumers really cared about.
And I'm sure that there will always be people who will want a computing device they can tweak and program. There will also be tremendous profit to be made selling to people who just want the easy utility.
Maybe. Automatic transmissions don't come with built-in political cartoon censorship or remote mass deletion of 1984. Maybe people, if given the choice, would choose convenience over freedom, but they prefer having both, which is why Android sales are zooming past iPhone sales.
It's both facts about different market segments and right and wrong. There's also a difference from Lojack here: because of network effects, all of the people get the "government" that some of the people deserve.
Are people really as foolish as you think? I don't know. I hope not.
Enthusiast cars are still based around horsepower, handling, and the "joy of the ride", whereas modern cars are using increasingly smaller yet more efficient motors that, while not as exciting, get out of your way and still get you where you need to go.
But even non-enthusiast cars are still tweakable. You might not be getting the strobe gun out on your timing belt, but you can reflash the chips that control your car's various I/O systems, change out the suspension, do all kinds of nutty things with the interior and exterior.
For example, I bought a Hyundai Elantra back in 2001, and part of the weird appeal to me was that unlike a Honda Civic, there wouldn't be anyone interested in modifying something as pedestrian as an Elantra. Then I joined a Hyundai Elantra forum full of tinkerers - who take full advantage of the fact that Hyundai posts their searchable tech manuals online for free. Because of this open manual and enthusiast community surrounding a car that is unremarkable except in its longevity, I was able to change my own thermostat out, not to mention the dozens of minor suspension and interior tweaks I've made.
It's not that there's less joy in the ride, it's just a different kind of joy.
So you purchased a standard, no-frills car that provides full technical accessibility and used that to make unnecessary modifications to it. Then, you used said tweaked automobile as an example of opaque car design in a discussion about iPad?
Making suspension and interior tweaks are not necessary for piloting your vehicle. Unfortunately, Windows Update and some level of technical sophistication is necessary for running the modern PC. You're arguing against your own point—you don't need technical expertise in any possible way to run and maintain your Hyundai. iPad is arguably one of the first computers to adopt this model.
stcredzero compared the iPad to cars. dmlorenzetti said " the analogy seems flawed". kaiuhl said "I entirely disagree," intimating that the analogy was not flawed. My retort further demonstrates how unlike a car an iPad is, in the hope that the reader would also agree that the analogy is in fact flawed.
In your reply, you say "you don't need technical expertise in any possible way to run and maintain your Hyundai" - given that I take my car to a garage for maintenance and oil changes, that's not at all true.
The problem with the whole thing is that computers are not cars. Cars do one thing: get from a to b. Whether "getting from a to b" is an experience to be enjoyed or endured is a matter of preference, but ultimately the car still serves a single purpose.
The single purpose served by a computer is so abstract that it's not even worth mentioning here. Practically, computers serve hundreds of different purposes, and that is why the analogy fails.
I can tell that you aren't into cars. People that are into cars really get a lot more than the A to B utility. they identify with cars. They drive them for the sake of driving. They race. They accessorize. They like the way driving their car makes them feel. I'm not a car guy myself, so I can't elaborate, however, I know some of these people, and they think computers are mostly "single purpose". It is all about perspective.
You have to be an enthusiast to really get the difference, though. That's not true with computers, and is the whole point. Take enthusiasts out of the picture entirely, and computers still have a variety of uses, cars have essentially one, or maybe two if you live in it.
It makes sense as an analogy but it's not valid evidence supporting the argument.
The argument is that usability matters more than capability and that's why the iPad will ultimately win the mainstream. In mainstream use, computers simply have more diverse capability than cars.
(note that this is NOT the case with mobile phones-- while mobile phones have diverse capability and people use them for lots of different things, if all you could do was make calls, send text, email, use GPS and do basic web browsing people would still buy them)
many people thought the iPad would fail [because] it's less capable than its seeming competition
The success of the iPod and the Flip Video camera seems to demonstrate that mainstream consumers prefer usability to capability.
The iPod wasn't the most capable MP3 player when it came out. But Flip Video is an even more dramatic example. An unknown company came out of nowhere and captured 13% of the video camera market in 6 months. And they were competing against Sony and Canon and Panasonic, some big, well established players. The first Flip had 6 buttons and no onscreen menus. Just 7 features (one button handled zoom while recording and volume during playback). The competition had at least twice as many features.
Features on something that takes pictures or records video is much different from features on a computer, though applications is generally a more common term for the variety of uses a PC can be put to.
The long tail of what a computer can do is infinitely longer than the long tail of features on a camera. Maybe you're an architect and use CAD software, maybe you're a composer and need software that works with your synthesizers, maybe you're a scientist and use a bunch of customized development tools for research, maybe you play high-end video games, maybe you design playbills, maybe you're just a car enthusiast and use different CAD software from the architect I already mentioned. The list goes on.
PCs are incredibly flexible in this way. A device that can't do the one thing you need it to do won't get bought. On cameras, usually the one thing is just: take nice pictures. If the one thing you really need a PC for isn't available from the App Store, usability doesn't matter at all.
Exactly. A flamethrower is more capable but everyone buys lighters.
As technologies mature they become more simple and elegant not more complex and capable. The problem is that it's a pass/fail test. There is a small difference between something simple and something useless.
IMHO, the future is dockable smartphones. Tablets may be a milestone on that path.
The tablet form factor will exist, but that will primarily be for interface and display purposes. They may well become an adjunct to a phone sized data device.
Oh, the iPad might be all fancy-glitzy-waste-of-money-blah-blah, but as a product, it's good at it. It provides an experience, as well as providing usefulness. I have used a laptop for recipe purposes in a kitchen, too, but using an iPad to do it just makes it feel a lot more cool, which makes people bother to use it more. My mother never saw the use for mp3 player speakers until she realised that it was a very easy and convenient way to listen to Alice Cooper in the kitchen while cooking. She could've gotten a portable player/radio - the technology's been around for a while, I'd say - but she didn't.
It's a brilliant marketing idea. I'll probably stick to my laptop and paper notes, but I guess I, like everyone, have some sort of dream of a future where we have fancy computer screens everywhere. Kitchen computers, robo-butlers (or a disembodied mildly sarcastic voice with a British accent answering your questions), projectors projecting the next recipe on your kitchen cupboard, fridges keeping tally of your shopping list, you name it.
This is exactly why the iPad needs some sort of user account system. Everone in my family loves using it—and friends and co-workers love to play with it—but I don't like my email accounts and some app data accessible to all.
I think Apple's long term model is that the iPad is more of a "personal" computing device. Of course they probably wouldn't complain if you went out and bought one for each member of your family.
Or, Jobs introduces the iPad 2.0 with revolutionary security-protected user space partitioning, a magical innovation in computing that will revolutionize your approach to your information.
"I wanted to take the iPad with me but decided not to so it could stay at home on the kitchen counter."
I am really interested in a sort of family computer device, that would display calendar for everyone, shopping lists, and so on (a bit like the Weasley's Wall Clock in Harry Potter perhaps - family dashboard?). Only I am hoping for something cheaper than the iPad.
While I kind of hate Apple, I have recently considered getting an iPad after all, just for reading websites and API docs. Thinking I might be able to avoid having to get a standing desk, and instead try to pace around with the iPad whenever I need to read stuff online.
So far I don't even have a kitchen computer, btw. It hasn't bothered me that much. On the rare occasion I want to cook by recepy, I either print it or I have a paper book.
Interesting, thanks. Unsurprisingly, their web site sucks, so I was not able to view details of the device. I can only hope that it is "open", and extendable.
I think there is/could be a market for this kind of thing.
Some cheap universal replacements might be an iPod Touch (though rather small and expensive at 200 bucks) or that open source hardware thingy whose name I can't remember - I think it's about 100 bucks? But rather bulky.
Not sure how open is it by default, but my colleague bought it, to put linux on it. So, open enough probably... No idea about the app store rules though.
Originally, I thought it was a device in search of a problem. However, it has made my life more efficient in one key way. Reading. I put my iPad on the treadmill and crank up the font... I can run fast and read iBooks. I love that I'm getting smarter and staying fit.
After reading this, one could ask Jobs the same thing he once asked Sculley: Hey Steve, do you want to spend the rest of your life selling overpriced toys to rich ne'er-do-wells, or do you want to change the world?
There's a significant trickle-down effect from the innovation and competitive pressure they apply. All MP3 players and (practically) all phones will be better, (even if they're simply selling overpriced toys.) :)
Odd, since our ipad has hardly been used the last few weeks. After a couple of weeks of heavy use, it's now gathering dust. Wife is back to using her netbook, kids have gone back to their own computers.
Not saying it's useless, but it is far less used than I expected.
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[ 3.0 ms ] story [ 105 ms ] threadThis sums up my opinion on the iPad. It just makes casual consuming fun.
My wife still sings "Flash, ah-ah" to me every time we talk about it, but she's warming up to it. Watching Modern Family on the ABC app while snuggled together on the couch was a revelation for her.
We don't use it for everything, but the things we use it for sure are fun.
It doesn't replace my MBP, but neither did my smartphone.
I guess in couple of years Steve implements some new consumer device which complements the existing ones. He's so visionary.
Many of us are geeks here and buy gadgets just because they're shiny and new. But many normal people would rather get an easy to use laptop instead, or a "laptopised" dockable ipad.
To respond to the reactions though: What are their reactions really? Do they want iPad, or do they want an easy to use touchscreen device. Do they have any computer already, or is it their first? (I think we know the answer to that) Essentially - do they really want a specialised device for each of their activities and as which point will they say "that's enough - I just want something that integrates my N devices, like those old laptops".
I think people would buy a "laptopised" (as in - general purpose with full-featured modernised windows for example) dockable version of iPad and use it as their main computer in many cases. Not sure if that's what Apple wants - because now you can have both macbook and the ipad and ...
At the same time, this is why I always thought that we don't need another device, just a better way to output our smartphones to a larger screen.
Based on my empirical experience since my iPad was delivered April 3, most "normal" people want an iPad but are having trouble justifying the expense.
I think iPads will be the gift this Christmas. About 80% of my friends are planning to get one then.
(Specific subgroup)
That's an incomplete sampling of my universe of friends. A lot of my casual friends - the ones I haven't seen since February or earlier - I don't know one way or another, but I'd guess the rate would be lower among them.
The data's also tainted, since most of them had the iPad in hand when they made the statement. Anyway, what I really was trying to focus on is that if they purchase it, it will likely be at Christmas and as a gift.
As far as demographics, if you mean income, I don't really know. I'd guess $100K-$120K yearly income per family. Upper middle class, I guess. Folks that make enough money that their wives stay home with the kids. Not hurting for money, but $500 is still more than pocket change.
Edit: Almost forgot - some universities are already testing iPads as "give away to students" devices... Seriously, that's a path to another "Hand in as .doc file", only a thousand times more dangerous.
We've already got game consoles, handheld games, laptops, smart phones, music players, video players, etc. all basically targeted at the same general group of people. I'm waiting for the second wave of generalised devices now - I want only 2 of them: pocket player / communicator / game (apart from games, my N900 does a good job here for now), dockable general laptop.
:)
It's just a large iPod touch :/ There's nothing really new and 'wow' about it. If I did get one, the kids would use it to do painting on for a bit, then it'd get stuck up on a shelf gathering dust.
My 2.5 year old 1200$ PC has a 4 core 2.4 GHz CPU 4GB RAM, 750 GB HDD and a reasonable graphics card. I could buy a better PC for that price, but I am probably better off filling out new form factors than getting a minor upgrade. Think of how woodworkers end up with such a huge number of specialized tools. Their basic tools don't become outdated so rather than buying a slightly higher RPM band-saw they go for a tool that is really useful a small percentage of the time.
Smart phones are still undergoing fairly rapid development but it's slowing down and their average prices are already decreasing. So, expect to find the next niche soon. (PC)>(Laptop)>(Smart Phone)>iPad?>???
PS: The Smart Phone is the evolution and union of several fairly different device that shared the same form factor. They are really the union of a Cellphones + MP3 player + Game Boy + PDA + Digital Camera's + Wireless Modem, but you get a slightly worse version of each one. I could easily see a iPad type device that absorbs other things with it's form factor. Add a 10c infrared port and you get one of those touch screen style universal remotes. Or, add the right base station and they could be the brains behind a Wii style gaming system.
The difference is that a computer is a computer (whereas woodworking tools are not interchangeable). Some people (like me) only want one device, because if you use one computer for everything it becomes almost a part of you in a way that wouldn't be possible if you were continuously context-switching between multiple devices.
Right now I use a laptop for everything. When smartphones get good enough (real keyboard via bluetooth, built-in mini projector turning any flat surface into a screen), then I'll use one of those for everything and ditch the laptop.
Honest question: what could you do with a phone that had 10x as powerful CPU in it than the iPhone does that you couldn't do with a current smartphone?
Now chances are I am not going to want to start coding on the slopes, but I may want to double check a weather map check movie times etc. And the simple fact I keep my phone with me all the time means I use it for those casual questions. I could go to my car and boot the laptop, but because I have a more than one tool available I get more options and save time. Think of it in these terms, I rarely want to use GPS so I did not think buying a device would be worth it, but while slightly less useful than a dedicated device I am often really glad I can get basic GPS functionality on my phone.
PS: I don't have an iPad but I can see it could be vary useful.
When I'm -really- working, I want my dual monitors, wired LAN and an ergonomic chair. For me, it hasn't been yet -another- device.
I'm seriously considering an iPad as a replacement for my MBP. My primary usage of the laptop now is web browsing, email, and the occasional game, and it is a bit huge (I have a MacBook Air at work, so the old MBP feels heavy). The iPad would do all those things perfectly. For me it would be a laptop replacement.
With computers as cheap as they are and families usually owning several computers (kitchen or living room laptop or netbook, a few laptops or netbooks for the kids, desktop for the office and so on) I really fail to see how a device which can replace one or two laptops in such a household is a bad thing or one more thing to buy.
What does iPad do?
Films and TV Music iBooks Apps Web browsing Email
Only films and TV are better on your big, far away, non-touch, lower resolution TV. The rest are significantly worse or completely unavailable.
Television the only specific example in the post he was replying to, so that's probably what he was talking about. (Did you... nah, never mind.) Calling the ability to snuggle together on the couch while watching TV a "revelation" does indeed invite a challenge. Why? How? It isn't much of a discussion if I have to go buy an iPad myself to understand what people are talking about. (Why is it such a high-rated comment? Are people with iPads just endorsing the implication that its virtues can't be analyzed or described in any way?)
(Did you... nah, never mind.)
Apparently not.
In the past, I would have setup my laptop. I never considered that a hassle, but now I do. Also, the app itself was a cue. I probably wouldn't have thought to go to abc.com had I been on my laptop, which I primarily use for working rather than playing.
I am hereby up-voting your wife's sense of humour.
Not putting the rest of your points into question, I'm just going to guess that for the rest of the world not being the US, this thing will never happen and we will still need our dedicated servers/laptops and BT/Usenet apps and the commercial, "smooth", DRMed solutions will still be utterly useless.
I guess I'm still disappointed that what in I consider the "digital age" where the world should be one marked, one solution for everyone, every single big player still does everything in their power to create artificial barriers, restrictions and markets for some pipe dream that it might increase their (relevance and thus) profits.
I guess my monthly expenses will still remain at $0 for cable and $15 for usenet.
If it doesn't deliver on experience people will not buy it in the first place (because no one will be talking about it) or they will return it. I don't care how many features you pack into a device, if I don't smile while using it it's a failure.
1. put 'ipad' in title
2. write some random thoughts, don't matter if you like it or not, if they are even technical or just stories about posting while sitting on the can.
3. ...
4. profit!
I suspect he derives money indirectly from his blog - for example, by securing himself as an authority on tech investing in an industry where reputation is quite important.
that is one of many reasons the AVC blog is extremely valuable to me
but it is not the only one
Basically, the early adopters have now bought their iPads and are sitting in the terrace with a glass of wine reading emails. It's fun, but it's not "this changes everything", it's "this gadget is so cool".
The former I'm not sure about, the latter, quite possibly. My thinking is that if I were running the IT department in a manufacturing firm looking for ways to bring these devices into my factories, I'd be giving preference to touch-oriented web apps rather than iDevice applications specifically. You retain a bunch of advantages of web apps -- easier and simpler deployments, generally faster development, more choice of languages -- and once the Android tablets start to hit, you avoid locking yourself into a single supplier.
Real time plant floor control/monitoring is not an unsolved problem and an iPad/tablet accessible web app was not the solution. See page 12 of the link below[1] for an example of what industry really works with. In some applications seconds can cost thousands of dollars, a limb or even a life. I'd never leave that up to a web browsers JavaScript engine.
[1] http://www.automation.siemens.com/salesmaterial-as/brochure/...
http://www.medgestore.com/products/ipad-leisure.psp
http://www.pencomputing.com/
http://www.ruggedpcreview.com/2_handhelds.html
Sorry, Ryan! Here's a $5 iTunes gift card!
I do not understand this fixation people have with the iPad mattering to manufacturing/warehousing people. We have solved this problem many many many many times over. Intermec, Symbol, Zebra, and Toughbook are the name of the game, have been for 15 years, and will be for the foreseeable future. If I can't drop the device from 4 feet onto a concrete warehouse floor or parking lot over and over and over and over again, all day, every day...then it is useless to me and nearly everybody else in the manufacturing/warehousing industry.
If apple pulls the stick out of their butt about user-replaceable batteries, opens the thing from a technical standpoint, and builds a rugged version of it...then maybe (hey, they could call it a toughbook!), until then, it's going to remain something that hip kids with more money than sense show to their friends and something that technophiles use to read their email while sitting on their terrace and drinking wine.
i said "i've changed my mind"
i thought it was pretty useless at first.
now i'd rather use it than my macbook
i thought was worth sharing
Another way to look at it is, I've been convinced by marketing and countless articles on HN telling me how amazing this new gadget is that I went and bought one.
Now I need to find a place it fits in my life and convince myself it's something I didn't know I needed and that I didn't waste my money.
I've only owned it for a week but I'm sure that a year from now I'll still love it because it's a great product, not because it's new and shiny.
Fast forward to today and they've lost that vibe. I'm kinda feeling like the iPad will also lose that after people get used to the 'newness' of the form factor.
In fact, laptops probably became stressful to people just because having a laptop meant you could work--and were expected to work--whether you were at the park, on a flight, on the train, or wherever. An iPad is explicitly unsuited for serious business, therefore it won't be expected to use it for serious business.
Now, I often use my laptop _as_ my desktop computer; hook it up to a larger monitor, mouse, an external keyboard, stereo/video/telescope/interociter/history eraser button/etc. But that doesn't mean that my laptop experience isn't casual when I plop down on the couch, sans accoutrements, and surf hacker news, listen to music, or watch a movie.
And the iPad is more casual still. And the fact that I _can't_ do many things that are not casual may help to keep it casual. Maybe not...
(And for the record, just carry the iPad into the "little room down the hall" for the _ultimate_ in casual computing...)
Wait, what?
I got an iPad instead of a netbook because I thought it'd be easier for my non-technical wife (my 3 year old daughter showed her how to use it).
I like to cook and frequently adapt recipes I find online; I don't like to bring the laptop into the kitchen because it takes up too much space, and because of the risk of spills. The iPad could be mounted on the face of a cupboard or propped up on a stand to minimize risk of damage, while having everything I need close at hand.
Also, when we remodeled our kitchen two years ago, the showrooms all included kitchen computers.
I'm not rich, either. My neighbors are mostly rank-and-file government employees or servicemen on assignment at the Pentagon. But kitchen computers are a de-facto standard.
What are they typically being used for - just recepies? Or also browsing while having a morning coffee?
I would like to use it not only for recipes, but also calenders and email, as well as seeing the weather and the news and maybe checking Facebook and the like. For me, not sitting down in my office just to check the weather or morning traffic helps to prevent me from accidentally living my life in the office.
I'm sure every family is different, but a kitchen computer is a computer in the kitchen that you use when you are there and need access to a computer. Email, Google, surf, Youtube. Who knows, you might even look at a recipe and or play a game while cookies cool on the counter ...
There are the ridiculous app store policies (which is a HUGE problem) but there are also little things. For instance, have you ever tried to use an iPhone in bed? I keep mine sitting next to my pillow so that I can listen to music while I fall asleep...
Doing this is a huge pain in the butt. If you turn the thing sideways to change songs, it goes into the oh-so-useless "cover flow" interface. If I'm browsing the web, the phone decides that it should rotate the screen for me...
These things are fixed...but only if you void your warrant and jailbreak it...why? Honestly, the only thing I can come up with is that it is some stupid power trip by the folks at apple... "Bah! We designed it that way and we're never wrong!" JUST EFFING FIX THIS GUYS! It's a very very common problem.
I was traveling last week...my laptop's battery needs very badly to be replaced (only holds about a half hour of charge anymore), so I decided to transfer some podcasts to my phone so I could listen to them on the plane...now, this isn't as simple as most of the blackberries I've ever owned (the blackberries, if you're not aware, simply get mounted as an external storage device...copy and paste MP3s to it and it will happily play them for you), but firing up iTunes should be too much a problem, right?
Wrong. iTunes refuses to add songs to the device unless I erase everything on it and "sync" it to my laptop. WTF? Apple, this is completely unnecessary! So I lose everything on my iPhone in order to listen to a couple of podcasts? What the hell, Apple.
Okay, howabout email syncing? 4 times an hour at the most. Seriously? The phone is absolutely capable of more than this! So it will hurt the battery a bit more, I don't care! Warn me about it when I select "check email 1 time per minute".
Don't even get me started on Google voice (which I use as my primary phone number and voicemail)...
And then there is flash...
Oh, and howabout the newest version of their iPod? You cannot disable having album artwork take over half of your screen? Why the hell not?! These just seems like more power-tripping my Apple/Jobs.
I've played with the iPad (while I was waiting in the apple store for three hours for my appointment with the "genius bar"), it seems...kindof neat I guess? But apple leaves such a sour taste in my mouth from the experiences I've had with the iPhone that I cannot imagine myself ever buying one.
Why should I have to pay an extra fee to apple (mobile me) or microsoft (exchange) in order to get basic functionality?
What has "should" got to do with anything at all?
Email syncing is pretty straightforward, push the button to sync.
Most of your complaints seem pretty benign if you ask me.
Basically "We're right, we don't care about your problems, piss off."
Why can't I get the same sort of rotation lock for my iPhone? (well, I can, but it was something that was made by the community and something that will void my iPhone's warranty [which is funny because I am literally on hold right now with the apple store to make another appointment with the "genius bar" because the phone is currently only displaying a white screen])
That's always the case with usability things, isn't it? The problem is that on the iPhone you can't fix them.
for all the reasons you cite and more
Other limitations Apple puts on their devices come in second. I'm a very technical person. I would be happier having another gadget with Linux on it.
Now it lasts days and I use it more like a phone and a casual gaming device while I'm bored.
Bloggers should no better. It's too early to make statements about the impact of the iPad on computing. Let's see where we are in 6 months.
I'm not saying it will go one way or the other, but I imagine the hype will double with the 3G, then in a year we'll start seeing true reviews of how the iPad is used. I'm personally holding out for 3G.
EDIT: Somehow I missed that 3G is available, so I give it 6 months :)
I still find it very useful - I can now just "hand a web page" to my wife, it's great for having around in the living room for random web surfing on the couch, and yes, reading the news or doing a crossword while having a beer on my back patio.
I still can't type properly on the thing to save my life. I didn't realize just how awkward it is. I need to set it on a flat surface and type on it like a regular keyboard, and if I'm going to do that I'd prefer a laptop.
At first it's this completely super-cool thing and you wonder how you could live your life without it.
Then it just becomes a piece of stuff that you have to carry around because it does a couple of things better than all the other stuff you already carry around.
Same for many things - books are completely super-cool until you've read them and they just sit on a bookshelf most of the time.
At first, I liked it, but it still just felt like an MP3 player for books...the first time I really "got it" was when I was walking my dog one morning. I usually bring a bag with my that has a couple of tools in it (mountain bike habits die hard, I guess), as well as my kindle. I decided to stop near the lake and let my dog rest a bit. My friend had recently recommend that I read "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep", and I was considering riding up to the store and buying it when I realized that I already had it...in my bag, all I had to do was pay for it.
I booted the kindle, opened the kindle store, and was reading the book all in less than a minute. This is absolutely amazing to me because unlike my phone, or my laptop, or whatever other device I have that can read text, the kindle really really does feel like reading a book. It doesn't hurt by eyeballs, it doesn't get warm and feel strange in my hand, and the battery lasts for almost a month without charging.
Nothing about my kindle feels like it's getting in my way...this is pretty much exactly the opposite of my experience with every piece of apple product I have ever used (save for the early ipods...can you still sync them with amarok and gtkpod?).
Missing multitasking. Need To keep Pandora running. My only disappointment.
So it will go with computers. (And also note, that expert/enthusiast flying and driving experiences are still readily available for those with the burning desire.)
Your analysis is flawed. See below.
the reason many people thought the iPad would fail is that it's less capable than its seeming competition.
Yes, but the smart money is on the capabilities of the iPad increasing over time. (In fact, we already know this to be true.)
Also note that the consumer-relevant increase in capabilities in cars and airplanes have been quantitative in specific metrics. (More reliable, able to go farther, faster, more efficiently.) The decrease in capability for the iPad was qualitative in terms of tweak-ability, flexibility, and accommodation of user expertise. Those are not the qualities that appeal to the mainstream user.
I'm sure a lot of people complained when automatics came out, because they're less flexible. (You can't push-start them, you can't easily rock them out of ditches, and there's less flexibility in terms of using compression braking.) The flexibility isn't what consumers really cared about.
There's no wrong or right here, just facts about different market segments. They exist. Deal with it.
Are people really as foolish as you think? I don't know. I hope not.
Enthusiast cars are still based around horsepower, handling, and the "joy of the ride", whereas modern cars are using increasingly smaller yet more efficient motors that, while not as exciting, get out of your way and still get you where you need to go.
For example, I bought a Hyundai Elantra back in 2001, and part of the weird appeal to me was that unlike a Honda Civic, there wouldn't be anyone interested in modifying something as pedestrian as an Elantra. Then I joined a Hyundai Elantra forum full of tinkerers - who take full advantage of the fact that Hyundai posts their searchable tech manuals online for free. Because of this open manual and enthusiast community surrounding a car that is unremarkable except in its longevity, I was able to change my own thermostat out, not to mention the dozens of minor suspension and interior tweaks I've made.
It's not that there's less joy in the ride, it's just a different kind of joy.
Making suspension and interior tweaks are not necessary for piloting your vehicle. Unfortunately, Windows Update and some level of technical sophistication is necessary for running the modern PC. You're arguing against your own point—you don't need technical expertise in any possible way to run and maintain your Hyundai. iPad is arguably one of the first computers to adopt this model.
In your reply, you say "you don't need technical expertise in any possible way to run and maintain your Hyundai" - given that I take my car to a garage for maintenance and oil changes, that's not at all true.
A bad analogy is like a fish.
The single purpose served by a computer is so abstract that it's not even worth mentioning here. Practically, computers serve hundreds of different purposes, and that is why the analogy fails.
Regardless, I think the analogy still makes sense.
The argument is that usability matters more than capability and that's why the iPad will ultimately win the mainstream. In mainstream use, computers simply have more diverse capability than cars.
(note that this is NOT the case with mobile phones-- while mobile phones have diverse capability and people use them for lots of different things, if all you could do was make calls, send text, email, use GPS and do basic web browsing people would still buy them)
The success of the iPod and the Flip Video camera seems to demonstrate that mainstream consumers prefer usability to capability.
The iPod wasn't the most capable MP3 player when it came out. But Flip Video is an even more dramatic example. An unknown company came out of nowhere and captured 13% of the video camera market in 6 months. And they were competing against Sony and Canon and Panasonic, some big, well established players. The first Flip had 6 buttons and no onscreen menus. Just 7 features (one button handled zoom while recording and volume during playback). The competition had at least twice as many features.
The long tail of what a computer can do is infinitely longer than the long tail of features on a camera. Maybe you're an architect and use CAD software, maybe you're a composer and need software that works with your synthesizers, maybe you're a scientist and use a bunch of customized development tools for research, maybe you play high-end video games, maybe you design playbills, maybe you're just a car enthusiast and use different CAD software from the architect I already mentioned. The list goes on.
PCs are incredibly flexible in this way. A device that can't do the one thing you need it to do won't get bought. On cameras, usually the one thing is just: take nice pictures. If the one thing you really need a PC for isn't available from the App Store, usability doesn't matter at all.
As technologies mature they become more simple and elegant not more complex and capable. The problem is that it's a pass/fail test. There is a small difference between something simple and something useless.
IMHO, the future is dockable smartphones. Tablets may be a milestone on that path.
It's a brilliant marketing idea. I'll probably stick to my laptop and paper notes, but I guess I, like everyone, have some sort of dream of a future where we have fancy computer screens everywhere. Kitchen computers, robo-butlers (or a disembodied mildly sarcastic voice with a British accent answering your questions), projectors projecting the next recipe on your kitchen cupboard, fridges keeping tally of your shopping list, you name it.
Edit: Forgot "magical".
I am really interested in a sort of family computer device, that would display calendar for everyone, shopping lists, and so on (a bit like the Weasley's Wall Clock in Harry Potter perhaps - family dashboard?). Only I am hoping for something cheaper than the iPad.
While I kind of hate Apple, I have recently considered getting an iPad after all, just for reading websites and API docs. Thinking I might be able to avoid having to get a standing desk, and instead try to pace around with the iPad whenever I need to read stuff online.
So far I don't even have a kitchen computer, btw. It hasn't bothered me that much. On the rare occasion I want to cook by recepy, I either print it or I have a paper book.
They even advertise it as "your new fridge door".
I think there is/could be a market for this kind of thing.
Some cheap universal replacements might be an iPod Touch (though rather small and expensive at 200 bucks) or that open source hardware thingy whose name I can't remember - I think it's about 100 bucks? But rather bulky.
http://www.feld.com/wp/archives/2010/05/open-android-vs-clos...
and we use macs in our house so the initial connection was on a mac.
Not saying it's useless, but it is far less used than I expected.