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Are we on American Idol?

9 points by juanignacio ↗ HN
I always felt pitty for those poor souls being crushed after they are told that no, they won't be winning American Idol.

It felt weird because the chances are so slim that one would assume that not winning should not come as a surprise or a shocker. Still they cry. Most seemed to be convinced they were "destined" to win. That clearly can not be the case.

Now, the 14,000+ companies that applied to Startup School made me think that I might be inside a similar reality distortion field.

I know that in the "unicorn contest" there can be multiple winners, and that is a big difference, but at the end the chances are still so slim...

11 comments

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smt88
This is actually a great analogy that I'll use in the future when I meet people who think they're the next Mark Zuckerberg.

Statistically speaking, I'd bet someone entering American Idol is more likely to win than a startup is likely to become a unicorn.

(Also -- it's fine and normal to cry if your startup fails. For many or most, it will even result in clinical depression.)

juanignacio
I cry sometimes and my startup is growing :')
mrits
If you aren't having enough fun on the journey then you might not be cut out for it.
juanignacio
Sure, sure,... but you read "The Hard Things About Hard Things" and you take a look at the Pmarca's blog and some many other first hard sources/accounts about how it's really like to run a Startup and the common theme is not that of fun. To me it has been grueling. So I can really relate to those stories. In my case is more about the challenge, not so much about having fun. Cheers!
taway_1212
> It felt weird because the chances are so slim that one would assume that not winning should not come as a surprise or a shocker. Still they cry.

I've read an interview with ex-assistant on one of those shows and it was part of her job to routinely rile up contestants just before they were put in front of the camera. In this specific case, it was a "Top Chef" kind of show, and she was telling everyone that the celebrity chef running the show has just tried the contestant's dish and said that it's utter garbage etc (while in fact the dish was fine and they were not close to elimination) - everything to get them shaken and close to tears for the show. Very nasty business.

juanignacio
Hope this is not the case with VCs! Or is it?
coralreef
You don't have to play the "startup" game. You can build a practical business with software.
juanignacio
Yep. And as a singer you don't have to go to AI.
veddox
I would attribute a lot of that to survivorship bias - we usually only hear about successes. (Nobody likes to talk about failures.) That leaves us with the impression that successes are a lot more common than they really are.

Also, hope and optimism are very deeply entrenched in human psychology. Even when we know the odds are hopelessly stacked against us, we refuse to "stop believing in ourselves".

veddox
A similar example comes to mind from Stephen E. Ambrose's book "Band of Brothers". He interviewed WW2 veterans who talked about how every soldier going into combat for the first time believes that he's going to survive. It's only when he actually starts to see his comrades fall that he realizes "I might actually die here". As he is exposed to more and more death, that gives way to a feeling of "I'm going to die here".

We have to see others fail to believe it to be a realistic possibility for ourselves.