Much more likely, I think. When online advertising crashes (<5 years, starting already), Google is going to struggle. Amazon is still going to be making a lot of money.
Video advertising is starting to see a drop in CPM that's going to lead to a leaning of producers, which is going to have a cyclical effect on Google's revenue.
Banner ads have already bottomed out for the most part, but you can see with Google's most recent search changes that they're struggling to monetize. Compare how much ads stood out in search results ~5 years ago to the incredibly minor [ad] badge that appears on current search results. Google would not have done that if they didn't have to.
The author of that article is seriously offending. In 2030, the thing I'll eat will be coming from the farmers around. The best book that will teach students important things will be written by author and still distributed as books. The water will come from the job of the water utilities. My electricity from a mix of nuclear plants and renewables detained by states. The resolution of international tension created by my lifestyle will be delegated to military forces ot detained by google. My car sure won't be repaired by Google. So please, Google is a champion of digital age, but it's not "my new insect overlords". Far from it.
Now as far as information fro consumers is related, yep, Google is scary-powerful.
You're forgetting about teleportation, the irrelevance of money, energy usage so efficient it's no longer a problem, the maturation (slowing) of population growth, etc.
Google is hot air embodied. They can't deliver and care much less than many realize. Even basic products from them end up sucking.
While I frown upon Google's frequent deprecation of products and services, I really really hope they don't discontinue the Nest thermostat, at least until someone reverse engineers the firmware so I can run my own server it can report to.
It's one of the few digital guilty pleasures I'd rather not part with.
Maybe in US, for sure not in Europe. Is Google company which can't pull of social network, payments or even such simple thing as messaging? This company should rule us? I doubt, besides their search and Photos, I don't have much use for their services, which doesn't sound like company which should rule the world and I know plenty other people who just use Gmail, search, maps and Photos, maybe translate, that doesn't sound very diverse to me.
Google won't make it that far. It's a company filled with passive-aggressive arrogant wannabes with a less than likeable vision for the future. They make many claims regarding what they are about, but at the end of the day there's nothing there.
If we do end up in a Google future, that would be unfortunate.
It's an almost-Google world today, given Android, search, GMail, etc, but them being everywhere is different from them running everything.
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[ 4.4 ms ] story [ 68.5 ms ] threadhttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14221587
I own a metalworking shop, and I have a monthly budget just for google... its the more effective way to bring customers...
Banner ads have already bottomed out for the most part, but you can see with Google's most recent search changes that they're struggling to monetize. Compare how much ads stood out in search results ~5 years ago to the incredibly minor [ad] badge that appears on current search results. Google would not have done that if they didn't have to.
Now as far as information fro consumers is related, yep, Google is scary-powerful.
Google is hot air embodied. They can't deliver and care much less than many realize. Even basic products from them end up sucking.
http://lampoon.rwinters.com/Lampoon1990.htm
My guess is that in 2030, Google will be about as relevant as IBM or Microsoft is today. Not irrelevant, but not the big dog either.
(less seriously: the rest of those products will have been canceled by then)
It's one of the few digital guilty pleasures I'd rather not part with.
There's nothing inherently different between the downsides of monopolies or oligopolistic cartels as far as the consumer is concerned.
In other words, what's the real difference if it's Google + Facebook or Google + Amazon or Facebook + Amazon?
If we do end up in a Google future, that would be unfortunate.
It's an almost-Google world today, given Android, search, GMail, etc, but them being everywhere is different from them running everything.