Lived there (Bahrain) for 12 years, this is pretty big deal, you have to take this in context of both religious and location-wise, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia are literally within 25 min to max. 2hrs flight from Qatar. This is similar to Germany and several European countries suddenly declaring that France should be kicked out of the European Union and cutting off ties.
As well, a lot of business and trade happens between the Gulf countries which is pretty much put to a stop right now. My family has business in both Qatar and Bahrain and they're very much wondering what to do.
Moreover, religious-wise, I'm not too familiar with Qatar, but I believe they would have a similar system to Bahrain where the rich 10% are Sunni and the poor 90% are Shia left over from the colonial days.
It's too early to tell. This is not the first schism in the GCC involving Qatar, but it's the one that's amped up the fastest. There's a lot of dynamics involved here both overt and those left unsaid.
1: The possibility of a Qatar-Iran rapprochement. I don't think it was ever likely but rather was a political manouver by Qatar that got out of hand, particularly after Trump's very recent visit and his attitudes towards the Iran deal. The reason why this would be a big deal is not regional power flexing or the usual cross-gulf shitslinging, but rather that Qatar worries about being overshadowed in political affairs by Saudi, and Saudi worrying about the possibility of increasing influence of Iran within the GCC and OPEC. The irony, of course, is that the fear of GCC disintegration by Iran sowing disunity might cause disintegration...
2: The Muslim Brotherhood. Despite generally aligned political and theological views, UAE+Saudi are really at odds here. They views the MB as a populist force that aims to undermine the government and to covertly back more extreme Islamist factions in pursuit of that("enemy of my enemy...), and to create parallel structures in governments to advance their cause. Qatar views them as a useful tool, giving them somewhat safe harbor and the inclination of AlJazeera, one of the region's strongest media conglomerates. This came in useful in Libya and for relations with the Palestinian Authority and Turkey, but it can backfire quickly.
3: The possibility of normalization of relations with Israel. Probably more of a PR jab than a real issue, but it's one that's somewhat salient for the general public.
What would all this amount to? Probably not much, you'll notice that Kuwait is absent from that list and the likely reason is that they're being used as a backchannel. This altercation has been remarkably public in the popular media here (despite not being popular per se) so odds are all sides want this to be over ASAP.
Although not specific to Middle East politics: cutting all diplomatic ties with a country, closing all the land/sea/air borders with it, banning travel to it, and expelling all its citizens, not just the diplomats... This all sounds like a precursor to war. And then add to that the accusation of "supporting terrorism", a claim that is nowadays used as a pretext to justify military action. Seems like a fairly big deal.
Qatar has been known to fund most of Sunni Terrorism in the World. They have been caught directly giving hundreds of millions to ISIS. In Wikileaks, Hillary admonished Qatar for funding Isis and told her assistants that they needed to put pressure on their government (she accepted a $10M donation from them after saying they sponsor terrorism before Isis and then increased their military arms sales by 6000% but that's not the point).
They have the worst violations of human rights. They lure in foreign workers, take their passports and make them slaves working them to death. If Qatar man rapes a foreign woman, foreign woman is jailed according to law. Worst country in the world but unfortunately one of the richest. I think Trump how much ever of a Buffon he is somehow spearheaded this because Qatar has been a major hub for these countries.
With the Middle East, things are never what they seem on the surface. In this case, what is not so obvious is that Qatar has recently refused [1] to tow the anti-Iranian line of the Saudi-led Gulf states, who consider Iran to be their regional rival and mortal enemy. And that most of the Gulf states are already fighting regional proxy wars [2] using "rebel fighters" (if we are charitable about the wording), many of whom are in fact groups of former or future ISIS soldiers [3]. Hence, the hypocrisy here of the Gulf states accusing Qatar of supporting terrorism, when these states are engaging in the very same activities. Without more detail, it seems that Qatar's actual crime is standing up to the Saudis or just not towing the same line on foreign policy.
"Jeremy Corbyn accuses Theresa May of ignoring terror warnings when she cut 20,000 police officers and claims she is suppressing a report about Saudi funding of extremists"
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[ 3.1 ms ] story [ 37.2 ms ] threadAs well, a lot of business and trade happens between the Gulf countries which is pretty much put to a stop right now. My family has business in both Qatar and Bahrain and they're very much wondering what to do.
Moreover, religious-wise, I'm not too familiar with Qatar, but I believe they would have a similar system to Bahrain where the rich 10% are Sunni and the poor 90% are Shia left over from the colonial days.
It's too early to tell. This is not the first schism in the GCC involving Qatar, but it's the one that's amped up the fastest. There's a lot of dynamics involved here both overt and those left unsaid.
1: The possibility of a Qatar-Iran rapprochement. I don't think it was ever likely but rather was a political manouver by Qatar that got out of hand, particularly after Trump's very recent visit and his attitudes towards the Iran deal. The reason why this would be a big deal is not regional power flexing or the usual cross-gulf shitslinging, but rather that Qatar worries about being overshadowed in political affairs by Saudi, and Saudi worrying about the possibility of increasing influence of Iran within the GCC and OPEC. The irony, of course, is that the fear of GCC disintegration by Iran sowing disunity might cause disintegration...
2: The Muslim Brotherhood. Despite generally aligned political and theological views, UAE+Saudi are really at odds here. They views the MB as a populist force that aims to undermine the government and to covertly back more extreme Islamist factions in pursuit of that("enemy of my enemy...), and to create parallel structures in governments to advance their cause. Qatar views them as a useful tool, giving them somewhat safe harbor and the inclination of AlJazeera, one of the region's strongest media conglomerates. This came in useful in Libya and for relations with the Palestinian Authority and Turkey, but it can backfire quickly.
3: The possibility of normalization of relations with Israel. Probably more of a PR jab than a real issue, but it's one that's somewhat salient for the general public.
What would all this amount to? Probably not much, you'll notice that Kuwait is absent from that list and the likely reason is that they're being used as a backchannel. This altercation has been remarkably public in the popular media here (despite not being popular per se) so odds are all sides want this to be over ASAP.
They have the worst violations of human rights. They lure in foreign workers, take their passports and make them slaves working them to death. If Qatar man rapes a foreign woman, foreign woman is jailed according to law. Worst country in the world but unfortunately one of the richest. I think Trump how much ever of a Buffon he is somehow spearheaded this because Qatar has been a major hub for these countries.
How do I know who to believe? I'm not familiar enough with Quatar to know either way.
There is a saying supposedly from that part of the world:
"I, against my brothers. I and my brothers against my cousins. I and my brothers and my cousins against the world. "
[1] http://www.businessinsider.com/r-gulf-arab-row-rattles-trump... [2] https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/07/boris-johns... [3] http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/hillary-clinton-wikileak...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4571320/Jeremy-Corby...
"Jeremy Corbyn accuses Theresa May of ignoring terror warnings when she cut 20,000 police officers and claims she is suppressing a report about Saudi funding of extremists"