I was young during the dot com boom, but I would like to know from people who weren't: Does the ICO boom resemble the dot com boom? Because this screams bubble like nothing I've seen before.
The way I see it, all asset classes are inflated: stocks are at nosebleed P/E ratios, bonds have next to no yield, house prices are once again at historic levels, and Silicon Valley unicorns are again getting unrealistic valuations. There's a lot of money sloshing around the economy looking for return. It's no wonder some of it ends up in cryptocurrencies.
Wait, if everything is inflated, then really, everything is actually in balance? But ok, so if most things are inflated, then what has proper value or is under valuated?
Subject being blockchain, I'm pretty sure Ethereum, Augur & MakerDAO are ones of those few rare under-valuated assets. Disclosure: I might own a few coins of each.
ethereum is undervalued @ over $200 a token because...what?
this is tulip mania. at least when a stock price shoots up over news, that company is (generally) backed by revenue. a sales channel. assets. something. anything.
a cryptographic signature is only worth something if a group of people all agree it is worth something.
before someone makes the fiat argument -- the USD is worth something because there are a lot of bullets and bombs behind it.
The correct analogue of cryptocurrency is not USD (because of the bullets and bombs you mention), but rather precious metals, particularly gold and silver. Yes, the metals do have practical applications, but that does not account for the majority of their price (value?).
You're gonna have a bad time if you are comparing cryptocurrency to metals. There are dozens of currencies that are widely used at the moment, and I'm willing to bet over the next 2-4 years we will get into the hundreds. Your cryptocurrency isn't valued because its rare, it's because everyone else is buying into the same coin. It only takes one new currency to come in and be better than YOURS to reduce its demand and subsequent value - no matter how rare your coins are. It's a stock market not a gold coin collection.
Well, not me, because I use the analogy to metals to not invest in crypto currency either. They're non-productive assets. I stick to stocks, bonds, and real estate.
USD was last valued in gold in the 1970s, it is a free floating Fiat currency since Nixon took down the Bretton Wood's gold backing.
USD is now viewed as obligations of the Government of the United States which gets its revenue from taxing its economy (a function of GDP) and is secured by the bullets and bombs parent writes about.
No it isn't, Gold is valued at 1238 USD per ounce.
It is also priced/valued against other major sovereign currencies like the euro, renminbi, yen, aud with enough spread for profitable arbitrage across exchanges when trading hours overlap for Sydney, Hong Kong, Beijing, Mumbai, Frankfurt, London and New York.
Everything can be inflated as these are income paying securities. If all securities pay meagre (or negative!) returns then all assets can be inflated simultaneously.
In my opinion, what it means is that you can expect lower than historically average returns on investments over the next decade or so. This could mean a crash followed by normal returns or just pitiful yet slow and steady growth -- no way to predict the path we get there.
It also means cryptocurrencies will be bid up in the short to medium term without regard to their fundamentals. Best of luck with your coins.
Very much so. The true con men and fraudsters have smelled blood in the water and are now gathering together a few token coders and a collection of cribbed marketing catchphrases to test out the limits of the greater fool theory.
Not a single one of these ICO-backed companies will be an ongoing endeavor in five years.
There are a lot of virtual asset holders that don't want to convert to money because of paying taxes, waiting to the day they don't have to at all. Some of them having so much that they can afford a few thousand ether, just to diversify and play lottery in the next big pump game. The project has someone known in the crypto-world behind it, and the claim is it will solve the speed, performance and transaction fee problems of major virtual assets. I guess they think this is enough assurance that it will offer some substantial ROI in the next bullish period of the crypto market.
As someone from that era, this seems much worse. It just seems like a scam to me. I keep noticing this trend that whenever there's a sudden drop in the price of a cryptocurrency the exchanges in question conveniently go offline. Seems a little more than coincidental. It's too easy to manipulate. Especially with the new trend of ICO's offering a "new" cryptocurrency built around their exchange. What happens to the currency if the exchange goes belly up? Plus they don't even have it working yet. No code, nothing. Even the write up in the article seems suspect.
"It would be able to process millions of transactions per second with no transaction fees."
"...namely transparency, security, process integrity, speed and lower transaction costs"
Which is it? None or lower? And lower than what? Pick one! It's like the old adage "A fool and his money are soon parted." If it sounds to good to be true, it's because it is.
When fools are rushing to buy your pipe-dreams what does it benefit you to limit the supply? You are making the mistake of believing that these are not simple pump-and-dump scams wrapped cryptocurrency clothes.
You close up shop, change the name plates on the office door, and launch your next ICO. Investor gullibility is that of which there is an unlimited supply.
Can someone please explain this about ICOs for me: are people investing because they believe the company itself will create real economic value resulting in dividends based on their coin holdings, or is it all about secondary market gambling and betting they'll make a profit off coin speculation?
There was a podcast(1) about part of your question recently. Essentially, people are playing with "house money" as they have generated net gains from BTC and other coins. Instead of incurring a taxable event by cashing out, they might just be pouring it into ICOs.
I think it's a grey area, but I am not an accountant. The government considers it to be intagible property in some scenarios and a capital asset in others. For the most part I think the capital asset happens on the conversion to fiat due to the realizing of gains and losses. If anyone else has more knowledge here, I would love to know for certain.
I'm 100% certain that absent a ruling letter the current guidance from the IRS is that a transfer of one token for another token (e.g. Ethereum for Bitcoin via Poloniex) is considered a taxable event, similar to, for example, selling gold and purchasing copper. I'm not sure if Ethereum tokens would be able to stretch into a different definition, but I suppose time will tell.
There are no dividends paid on holdings. That would make it a security and fall under regulation.
Most ICOs stipulate that in their T&C that tokens are to be regarded as without value. Yet they put up a big dog and pony show about selling them. To think that this absolves them of responsibility is a bit naive, in my opinion.
This particular token is a clear cut example. Block.one will build another altcoin. There is no code yet, only a whitepaper that on the face of it seems to promise the impossible (all the functionality you can think of at a million times the throughput). To finance this they will sell this EOS token, which is explicitly stated not to be exchangable for their future altcoin product or have any other use.
It might be of interest to note that the person behind this is not new to the game. This is his third crowdfunding scheme, and the first two products are far from what was promised. As to why people invest your guess is as good as mine, but the greater fool theory is a good starting point.
You can short Bitcoin or Ethereum on any major coin exchange and some trading platforms even go up to 200x leverage using margin and synthetic derivative contracts.
Can you tell me which major exchange does this? I'd like to buy a "reverse insurance" a-la "big short" type of thing. Also, what are the examples of a "synthetic derivative contracts"?
Look at the recent ICOs. The companies usually have little to none to offer, Mysterium, Gnosis, Bancor. People only buy hoping the coin will be included on Poloniex. Worked for Gnosis, investors saw huge returns. Yet the technology is all not existent, stay away for the tech. Before these things actually launch you can buy coins, but until they launch its all just gambling.
It's only these past few days that I've started getting interested in cryptocurrencies. And I've stumbled across tezos and im pretty sure their ICO is going to set a new record too. It's only been less than three days and they're at 103million.
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[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 89.3 ms ] threadSubject being blockchain, I'm pretty sure Ethereum, Augur & MakerDAO are ones of those few rare under-valuated assets. Disclosure: I might own a few coins of each.
this is tulip mania. at least when a stock price shoots up over news, that company is (generally) backed by revenue. a sales channel. assets. something. anything.
a cryptographic signature is only worth something if a group of people all agree it is worth something.
before someone makes the fiat argument -- the USD is worth something because there are a lot of bullets and bombs behind it.
USD is now viewed as obligations of the Government of the United States which gets its revenue from taxing its economy (a function of GDP) and is secured by the bullets and bombs parent writes about.
I think you meant "backed" by gold?
It is also priced/valued against other major sovereign currencies like the euro, renminbi, yen, aud with enough spread for profitable arbitrage across exchanges when trading hours overlap for Sydney, Hong Kong, Beijing, Mumbai, Frankfurt, London and New York.
It also means cryptocurrencies will be bid up in the short to medium term without regard to their fundamentals. Best of luck with your coins.
Not a single one of these ICO-backed companies will be an ongoing endeavor in five years.
"It would be able to process millions of transactions per second with no transaction fees."
"...namely transparency, security, process integrity, speed and lower transaction costs"
Which is it? None or lower? And lower than what? Pick one! It's like the old adage "A fool and his money are soon parted." If it sounds to good to be true, it's because it is.
(1): https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/unchained-big-ideas-from...
https://www.irs.gov/uac/newsroom/irs-virtual-currency-guidan...
Most ICOs stipulate that in their T&C that tokens are to be regarded as without value. Yet they put up a big dog and pony show about selling them. To think that this absolves them of responsibility is a bit naive, in my opinion.
This particular token is a clear cut example. Block.one will build another altcoin. There is no code yet, only a whitepaper that on the face of it seems to promise the impossible (all the functionality you can think of at a million times the throughput). To finance this they will sell this EOS token, which is explicitly stated not to be exchangable for their future altcoin product or have any other use.
It might be of interest to note that the person behind this is not new to the game. This is his third crowdfunding scheme, and the first two products are far from what was promised. As to why people invest your guess is as good as mine, but the greater fool theory is a good starting point.
So what is it exactly? What are you buying?