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"yes it's not as simple as calories in/calories out, but calories are still the most important" : http://physiqonomics.com/calories/

tl;dr: outrunning your fork is _prohibitively hard_.

In my personal experience, weight loss and fitness are not orthogonal, but they aren't the same vector, either. In agreement with the NYT link, I exercise because I want to be fit, because I want to prevent injuries, because I don't like being depressed, and because I want to do the previous items until I'm 90. Personal vanity is real, but secondary.

Ok, now what about Exercise as a Health Strategy, including Mental Health.

Your brain is part of your body, as it turns out, not just a computer that your body carries around.

It's the only thing that's worked for my mental health well being. I'd say there is no doubt it works for mental health from my experience and the experiences of others who exercise. I also lost a ton of weight when I approached it this way because I do it for the immediate effect rather than the long term weight loss and it absolutely controls my appetite.
Counting calories _always_ works. Period. Why do people make this so hard?

Exercise is tricky because--as the Times pointed out--it makes many people hungrier. And if you're overweight or obese, your risk of injury is higher. I see other people fail because they grossly overestimate the number of calories burned during exercise.

Just count your calories completely accurately (you may have to stop eating out), eat less than you burn, and you will lose weight. The laws of physics guarantee it.

I really can only speak in anecdotes, but almost to a person, people I know who have combined improving their diet with exercise have been far, far more successful in both the short and long term in losing weight and improving the way they look. Everyone who has focused on diet alone tended to look miserable and weren't successful in the long term, even if they managed to lose a good amount of weight initially.
A few years ago a trainer told me "you can't out exercise a bad diet" and I've found that to be the wisest words I've ever heard in a gym.
This is so true. I think it was Dr. Robert Lustig that said something like "it has never been proven that exercise alone can make you loose weight".

You allways need to combine better diet with exercise. Think about how much you would have to do to burn off 1000 calories through exercise vs reduce your food consumption with the same ammount.

I find that light exercise is really good for my brain.

For some realted information regarding diet and exercise you should look up some of the presentations done by Dr. Robert Lustig. "Fat Chance: Fructose 2.0" is a good one for example.

The fructose fixation is not warranted enough but is not baseless. The main argument still stands.
Losing weight is about two rates: your calorie consumption and your calorie burn.

Calorie consumption is easy to see. It's how much food you eat. The numbers on the nutrition label might not be perfectly accurate but they're good enough for dietary purposes.

Calorie rate is where the confusion sets it. Most people think you burn calories by exercise, but by far the greater amount of calories are burned by metabolic activity like keeping your body heat at 98 degrees, digesting food, thinking (brains burn a lot of sugar), and general maintenance (e.g., replacing skin).

The point of exercise isn't to burn calories through muscular effort. It's to keep your insulin response good and blood sugar in the good range, which in turn keeps the flow of calories in your blood directed to your muscles and organs, and to get your fat cells to release excess calories when they need to.

People who only diet and don't exercise, or do exercise but diet way too much, like on the Biggest Loser, usually see their metabolic activity levels drop through the floor. Besides making it harder to lose weight over time, this has knock on effects on your health that are terrible. Your body also loses as much lean mass as it does body fat.

I've finally put it all together and have lost almost 40 lbs over the last six months. I'm down three pant sizes and almost down a fourth, and my weight loss has been consistent and steady, and I feel like I can keep this up as long as I need to. The "secrets" are pretty simple:

Reduce Consumption: I skip or eat a very small dinner 6 days out of the week. When I'm really hungry I just eat a ton of vegetables until I'm physically full. Breakfast and lunch are normal and on Sunday I feast. Basic intermittent fasting/feasting protocol.

Keep Burn Rate Up: Sleep a lot. Avoid stress. 1-2x/week do a very intense bodyweight exercise routine; all sets to failure. Never do cardio.