The real threat is Chinese response to American aggression on the Korean peninsula. "Analysis of Strategic Threats
In the Current Decade" http://www.joelskousen.com/threats.html
The real question is Kim Jung Un prepared to have his country blown off the face of the earth?
What is happening is positioning and tactics, and honestly I think you have to play the tough card against him. The same way that Putin plays the "alpha male", Trump is doing the same. Moral of the story, don't take exchanges of tweets and sound bytes at face value. There is most certainly strategy and misdirection involved.
I think posturing and acting tough is the wrong way to play North Korea. I doubt Kim cares much about his people or martyrdom (taking out one target before being obliterated) - he'd be more interested in a heroic legacy. I'd play to his ego, that he can slowly open and lead his country to surpass the South as an industrial power and become a superpower like big brother China. In reality, you'd just be relying on a gradual dawning of reality for North Koreans. Topping the South or emulating China is not going to happen.
On the contrary, acting tough is working - in the last month China has actually tried reigning Kim in. Even as recently as last night they (quite surprisingly) sided with the UN and killed about a third of North Korea's trade income.
All of Kim's behavior in recent years points to a very strong will to preserve regime - countless executions, nuclear weapons, and his almost presidential security measures to avoid a South Korean decapitation strike. I don't think he legitimately wants to start a fight with anyone, doing so will be the end of him and his regime whether China intervenes or not.
Well, it's never been used outside of testing scenarios and it's actual stats/capabilities are not really public knowledge. Very early testing was a disaster, it missed every target it engaged. But I think about a year (maybe? maybe more?) of development later, it supposedly had a 100% hit rate albeit on a smaller number of targets.
But THAAD isn't the only protection against missile strikes; there's a fairly heavy Patriot presence in the area and both Japan and the US have a fairly number of Aegis-equipped vessels in the area as well.
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[ 1.6 ms ] story [ 45.1 ms ] threadWhat is happening is positioning and tactics, and honestly I think you have to play the tough card against him. The same way that Putin plays the "alpha male", Trump is doing the same. Moral of the story, don't take exchanges of tweets and sound bytes at face value. There is most certainly strategy and misdirection involved.
All of Kim's behavior in recent years points to a very strong will to preserve regime - countless executions, nuclear weapons, and his almost presidential security measures to avoid a South Korean decapitation strike. I don't think he legitimately wants to start a fight with anyone, doing so will be the end of him and his regime whether China intervenes or not.
You just answered why NK doesn't trust West. China is toppling the US. NK can topple SK too.
But I think there are reasons China has got themselves in that position and I don't know that they apply to NK?
But THAAD isn't the only protection against missile strikes; there's a fairly heavy Patriot presence in the area and both Japan and the US have a fairly number of Aegis-equipped vessels in the area as well.