Ask HN: Is it too late to get into Bitcoin or cryptocurrency in general?
I missed the bus. I recall playing with bitcoins like 10 years ago and didn't see the potential and thought it to be very risky.
Is it too late to invest in bitcoin now? How would you even get started?
PS: I am not talking about mining because the consensus is that it is too late for that - at least for an individual with a laptop.
63 comments
[ 5.5 ms ] story [ 143 ms ] threadTo get rich? That's a lottery situation. Good luck, be in the right place at the right time.
To use? No, of course it's not too late.
Its a speculative investment, not 1% savings account. The original question is a bit naive.
This hasn't changed.
> Is it too late to invest in bitcoin now?
It's too early to "invest" in Bitcoin, but you can certainly gamble in it.
Personally, I'm telling a lot of my friends to put a few hundred bucks (money they won't mind losing) into coinbase and evaluate afterwards. At the least, it's an interesting tech/story so having some money involved makes it fun. There's also speculative upside, though idk if we're past the "easy money" stage or not.
I still think "investing" in bitcoin is a gamble and I'm not convinced it should have a place in your portfolio. Not only because of the speculative risk, but the added risks of forks, hacks, etc. I'm really concerned about how liquid the market is and should an event happen, the little liquidity that exists will dry up.
Maybe there's more to be gained than an increasing exchange rate.
I've gained a lot of knowledge by running Bitcoin Core on testnet, grabbing some free test coins from a faucet, and learning how to use the API.
There's a lot to learn! Not only sending and receiving, but also importing and exporting private keys, signing and verifying messages, M-of-N multisig transactions, paper wallets, brainwallets, etc.
And there are now several implementations of the Lightning Network for instant and very low cost transactions which make micropayments feasible that you can learn using the testnet.
Then once you understand the fundamentals of Bitcoin, you might do the same for Ethereum and its smart contracts, solidity, and ERC20 tokens.
That being said, the real, long-term value of crypto is in practical commercial applications. Each coin may surface a "killer app" in time, and you could be the one to build it. Crypto is still nowhere near mainstream in this area. There is also a mountain of legal and logistical groundwork to work through which will take decades.
Remember: investing your money is not the only way to get in; you also invest your time.
You can invest in equipment to mine Bitcoin, but if you hold the Bitcoin that you mine, then you are speculating.
To answer (or dodge) your original question: nobody knows for sure if its too late.
As of right now, the market is betting that it is better to own a Bitcoin than to hold $5,663 in cash. (The current price is $5,664.)
Coinbase is your best bet for getting started in the US.
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speculation#Speculation_and_in...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investment#Related_terms
3. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/speculation.asp
4. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=8113.0
Assuming "the total amount of money in the world is $84 trillion" http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-compared-to-all-of-th...
BTC currently has a market cap of ~$94b
$84t / $94b = ~894
894 * $5625 (current BTC price) = ~$5m/BTC
Am I missing something? I may be. But from my calcs seems like your $200b estimate is off by a factor of 40,000x.
Investments are a bet that intrinsic value will increase.
Speculations are a bet about beliefs and psychology of future buyers.
Right now, bitcoin is purely speculative.
If it becomes sufficiently pervasive, it will enter the territory of most fiat currencies that have left the gold standard. With sufficient volume, liquidity, and traders, arbitrageurs will make it tightly track some asset/assets with intrinsic value.
If the network continues to grow it could enable things that provide value that didn't exist before. When that happens, worldwide productivity increases and wealth is created. Therefore everyone wins.
I thought investing in Apple was too late in 2006 at $12/share, then again at 2010 at $45/share, then again at 2014 at $90/share.
But here's a hacker-friendly strategy for investing in cryptocurrency:
Buy some tokens. Then spend your time, energy, and genius on significantly improving the protocol and ecosystem for those tokens, and then enjoy your return on investment!
But, unlike the stock market, or the housing market, there doesn't seem to be any PE ratio we can keep an eye on to determine whether or not bitcoin is over valued or under valued, so it really feels like a crapshoot.
https://www.coindesk.com/presidential-candidate-hillary-clin...
https://news.bitcoin.com/hedge-funds-investing-in-cryptocurr...
Also Ether is just a sound investment. They're willing to make hard forks which allows the protocol to be updated (an no one seems to care). Bitcoin has trouble with that and it can only sustain so many BTC/XBT and Bitcoin Cashes. First mover is not always a good thing! Not to mention lots leaving circulation because its such a new thing.
As for Bitcoin, it will still probably increase in value, but I believe Monero will increase more.
A lot of people have the misconception that Bitcoin is anonymous, but it's a public ledger. It's not fungible - a key requirement for any currency. Monero is fungible and is what people thought Bitcoin was originally. If you want financial privacy, use Monero.
Bitcoin will most likely always be considered "crypto gold" though, so if you decide for yourself that it's not too late and want something safer, you probably will do okay by just buying Bitcoin.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
1) Assume whatever you invest is lost instantly. Don't assume you'll get profits at all.
2) Start with small amounts ($100-150) and ramp up once you feel more comfortable.
3) Most alts are either "pump and dump" operations or scams. Do your research before transferring out of Bitcoin into an altcoin.
4) Take any hype about Bitcoin with a grain of salt. Just like any other trendy topic, there is a lot of misinformation out there.
5) Do your research.
6) Do your research.
7) Did I emphasize research enough? JUST DO IT.
8) Don't bother mining. The mining has been controlled by China for years.
And finally, research the underlying tech (blockchain). That's the real reason why Bitcoin is becoming so popular.
Can you elaborate on that? Afaik the very advantage of Bitcoin is that no single entity can control it.
[1]: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/china/
Or if you have free student trials for things like AWS/AZURE and can just spin up an instance and run till the trail dies.
Or if you have nationalized power like Venezuela does.
If bitcoin becomes the global reserve currency, that will probably go to 10 trillion, a ~100x gain.
If you think bitcoin has >1% chance of becoming the global reserve currency, you should buy at the current price.
The people who run the government now I know aren’t the best, and they are hemmed in by systems that have accidentally been created, probable elitism, and many other sins.
That being said I would much rather them, the United Nations, any socialist candidate, or any populist candidate govern before letting some new global financial elite take the helm for no reason at all other than a speculative bubble.
But hey, the .com bubble went to $6.5tn before correcting, and the entire crypto space is at $200ish bn at the moment. Assuming most of those gains will end up with both Bitcoin and Ethereum (which I do), you could easily see Bitcoin go 15-20x, and Ethereum 20-40x once institutional capital starts buying in (and average folk). It's still hard to buy crypto for most.
And those were US equities.. there is only one Bitcoin, and one Ethereum in the world.
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@eric-blair/does-metcalfe-s-law-...
I think the buy-side support has been surprisingly strong after this recent push, so I think this rally still has a bit of legs, but Bitcoin is always hard to predict.
It is risky, but then no good investments aren't. The trick is to diversify.
It'd definitely not too late to get into smart contract development on Ethereum. It's what I do for a living, and demand is high.
If you want to just buy some coins, it's pretty easy to set up an account on a solid, regulated exchange. In the U.S., Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken will let you fund an account directly from your bank.
Write some open source code, blog about it, participate in the community, and if you impress people they'll come to you. Resources:
ethereum.org
https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/White-Paper
https://solidity.readthedocs.io/en/develop/solidity-in-depth...
https://github.com/ethereum/wiki/wiki/JavaScript-API
r/ethereum
r/ethdev
https://gitter.im/ethereum/home
ethereum.stackexchange.com
truffleframework.com
https://github.com/ConsenSys/smart-contract-best-practices
https://medium.com/@weka/announcing-the-winners-of-the-first...