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Ask HN: What is the success/failure rate of startups?

3 points by micaelwidell ↗ HN
This link from yesterday got me thinking about this interesting question again: http://techcrunch.com/2010/07/30/conway-numbers/

So, if I start an average startup today, with an average team and an average idea, how big is the chance that it will be a success within five years from now?

I know this is a very hard question, because it depends on so many things, and it is also kinda hard to come up with a good definition of what a startup is. Perhaps a good definition of a startup is a company that has received funding (and therefore some kind of external approval/stakes in it)?

But let's discuss anyway :)

3 comments

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jacquesm
Define Success...

If success is a living while not working for 'the man' then the numbers are quite different when compared with say $200K turnover per employee per year.

If your team and your idea are 'average' I don't give you much chance to get off the ground, let alone to become successful.

Good team, good idea, good execution -> You have a chance.

Any of those 'average' and you'll more thank likely fail.

micaelwidell
Of course the definition of success is different for every entrepreneur. My definition of success in this case is a sustainable company that is still alive and growing after 5 years.

Maybe the formulation of my question wasn't very good. What I meant was more like "How many percent of startups who get funding are still in business five years later".