Ask HN: How can Coinbase make good on deposits/withdrawals?
If 10 people have 10 bitcoins that they bought from coinbase for $10, and now the ‘market’ says 1 BTC = $10,000, and all 10 people want to cash out, how does coinbase make disbursal? Obviously there are new people coming in and buying BTC at a higher price, but due to the surge, can Coinbase really honor all deposits?
41 comments
[ 1.7 ms ] story [ 70.5 ms ] threadThis is something we've seen many times before. It's not new. It's a classic bubble where demand (buyers) greatly outstrips supply (sellers).
The big question is why. Crypto currencies haven't suddenly gotten more useful. The current rise is fueled by speculation of the ability to resell at a higher price.
That's my hypothesis as to the 'unprecedented' aspect to all of this.
What other bubbles are there that were so lightning-quick, vast in geography and 24/7 operation.
Tulips at least required some sort of hand waving at auctions (presumably) and some transportation at some point after 'settlement'.
This is as fast as a video game connected to your bank account.
However, at the moment there's a lot of willingness to buy and little willingness to sell, and that's why the price is rising.
If nobody wants to buy your BTC at $10K, you don't get "your" money out, until coinbase can find a buyer to match with your sale.
In your example, all 10 of you start lowering your asking price, and "the market" goes down until you make a sale.
Coinbase may provide some liquidity, buying your BTC at "market price" with their cash reserves, but only if they think they can resell it at a higher price.
The risk they take on in doing that, and the liquidity they provide, is the nominal economic reason you are paying their fees.
No such guarantee exists with cryptocurrencies.
[1]: https://www.gdax.com/trade/BTC-USD
Coinbase has market makers though who pay 0% transaction fees. So the makers may take the other side of transactions.
I assume exchanges have some way of signalling options to each other but I don't know what that is.
if coinbase fills orders by buying and selling bitcoin on its own account, then that is a very different business model from what i assumed they did
Now this might be different because bitcoin is what it is this is, while you control your wallet and this occurs more like a stock market rather than full tilt poker. Still I'm somewhat skeptical because coinbase could be doing something more complex to where they take on risk. Just my opinion, have to research more but this is a thread I was looking for.
so the fact that BTC is crypto doesnt change anything about how trades happen, but the massive differences in market structure between crypto and established markets makes a huge difference
edit: and the fact that the difference is larger does matter. volatility is one of the core inputs of derivatives pricing, and for a derivatives market to exist, volatility must be estimable. having a derivatives market has major influence on prices and liquidity of the market for the original security. for BTC to really go mainstream, markets need to evolve
I recently sold my little stash of BTC because I just realized that I don't understand at all what is happening regarding BTC, why it is happening, and whether it will continue to happen. All this BTC has no where to go but into other prospective wallets. I also had a sudden concern that there is no reason to trust Coinbase, let alone the market or BTC in general, and why would I leave money with people I have no reason to trust and have no means of penalizing should they fail to honor their terms with me.
The reality, as others point out, is that Coinbase has people dumping real money into their system to get in on BTC, and thats what Coinbase use to pay my withdrawal, which is as simple as I could have imagined it. I just dont know why.
The only way an exchange wouldn't be able to honour deposits is if they lost them, or because of fraud. A surge in price shouldn't affect the solvency of the exchange.
The issue of disbursement might have happened if they were completely USD or fiat business and the market ran away from them during conversion. But btc fees has them covered.
I, for instance, had .32btc sitting around on Coinbase and decided to sell it when the price broke 10k. That got me about $3k.
Screenshot of Coinbase quote before the site crashed this morning before price "fell" "back" to $16,000. https://imgur.com/a/FClNZ
I don't know what external hooks there are that add liquidity, perhaps some of the other exchanges including the one it owns. Otherwise it would feel more like an E-Bay auction than a fast-paced market.
If everyone withdraws at once, you'll have 10 sell orders at the same time that need to be filled 'someplace' on the other side.
If no one wants it anymore, the asking price will have to get lower and lower. Coinbase shows you some sort of average price, but you can see a list of the orders put in if you log on an actual exchange like Bittrex. When I saw the sell and buy orders sitting in a queue waiting to be filled, some low-ball, etc., things starting to click for me.
The above is what I've gleaned from observation and reading. I could be wrong - and if there's one thing about this crypto bubble craze, is it's motivated me to learn about markets/exchanges, money, cryptography, and more. And to think about this things more abstractly and even critically.