Almost everything else is traded against BTC (or ETH on some exchanges), very few of the "shitcoins" can be traded directly for USD (or even USDT). So when BTC and ETH go down in fiat value, so do the shitcoins, even if they might be up in satoshis (or mETH)
Anyways, it's still higher than it was 3 weeks ago and appears to have found supports. Nothing goes straight up forever.
Borrowing at 20% APR is stupid. Did you think it would end up at $XXk without any corrections along the way?
That said, look back next year and perhaps things won't be as gloomy as they are today.
Edit: I can't believe I'm saying this, but you might want to look at refinancing that debt using a credit card. Their APR tends to be around 10 to 13% per annum. Might as well limit the damage done.
Hey man. It’s the manipulators. Also, your creativity is worth billions. That only comes from peace of mind. So focus on creating something new and amazing and valuable to the world. You’ll be happier and wealthier and more fulfilled that way. It’ll all work out buddy!
I hope this is a joke or sarcasm. But if not, you should definitely not invest money that's not your's, no matter what you think you will miss out on. As you know that's part of the investing 101.
But on the brighter side, there are far too many people involved for this to go full bust, the tech is solid, there's more and more exchanges launching associated products(bitcoin futures), Goldman is launching a full trading desk.
It's a thing now, just don't sell it yet and HODL. I hope you at least get your money back.
Bitcoin absolutely could go full bust. It is not a physical commodity, there is no utility outside of its perceived value. It is not a company, so it doesn't even have book value as its floor. And the technology is open source and well known, so there is nothing special or scarce about Bitcoin technology at this point. Even the companies that have capital investments in Bitcoin hardware could just repurpose that for a forked coin or possibly some other purpose altogether
The best thing for Bitcoin as a technology would be to stabilize in price and have lightning networks solve the scalability problem. The moment we can actually use it for it's original intended purpose and not a speculative asset, the sooner we can see innovation take hold.
Of course this ignores how hamstrung the technology is by the IRS treating it as property subject to capital gains tax. If I have to worry about paying tax anytime it is converted to fiat or exchanged for goods and services of real value, the less motivated I am to do so.
I'm not sure about this argument. You can also make a perfect copy of Facebook and you wont have a facebook. The brand is what makes Bitcoin, just like most of the companies that have perfectly good competitors with the same or better product utility but nowhere the market or profits.
For Bitcoin to die out, every single person needs to decide that doesn't want it.
There is a social network using facebook. If that network moved, it wouldn't matter how respected the facebook brand was. The brand primarily has value only in the effect it has on growing the network. The same is true for Bitcoin.
Since people want bitcoin primarily because they believe other people want bitcoin, if 90% of the userbase shift to monero or ether or some other coin, there's really no reason for the 10% to hang around. Zero is a very plausible price for bitcoin.
Definitely, it's just that moving away from Bitcoin is not much more easier than moving away from Facebook.
I agree that it can happen, like the exodus from Digg to reddit, but the brand is strong and it will have serious financial implications making it significantly harder than creating an account on the competitors product and continue as is.
>Bitcoin absolutely could go full bust. It is not a physical commodity, there is no utility outside of its perceived value. It is not a company, so it doesn't even have book value as its floor. And the technology is open source and well known, so there is nothing special or scarce about Bitcoin technology at this point. Even the companies that have capital investments in Bitcoin hardware could just repurpose that for a forked coin or possibly some other purpose altogether
Disclaimer: I own zero cryptocurrencies, but have a decent knowledge of the space
Here's why I think Bitcoin will never go bust entirely, regardless of the day to day price: it's the area under the curve of POW energy expenditure. At this point, so much energy has been expended mining bitcoin that that in itself creates value. Even if the price crashes 100x it will always be worth something. And whatever that "something" is, no one can say yet. But I would wager that it's much higher than whatever the initial players bought in for (in terms of cash or energy spent mining). Sure plenty of other altcoins can come along in the future, but catching up with the level of work that has been done on the Bitcoin blockchain at this point seems impossible to ever do. It's simply a matter of compute power that is physically available.
Fair enough, maybe it depends on your definition of "full bust".
But consider this... if the price were to go back to where it was just a year ago before the current mania (which is a common thing to happen when a financial bubble pops, after overcompensating to the downside) then it would be a 95% retracement from the highs (where, almost self-evidently, many people were buyers). And BTW a 95% retracement requires 20,000% gains to break even.
If you gave me a $1000 and I gave you $50 back, I think most people would say that I took all their money, even though technically they could still buy a couple pizzas or something.
So, again, it just depends on your definition of "full bust"
>At this point, so much energy has been expended mining bitcoin that that in itself creates value.
Bitcoins security relies on current hashing power and is completely indepent from past computations. If bitcoin falls to let's say $100 then major mining pools can do a 51% attack and make all the expended energy worthless.
And this is why I struggle with a moral quandary every time I make money off this crypto craze.
Where is the money coming from when I sell? What percent of it is from someone else making a very poor financial decision in a desperate move to elevate their financial position?
I believe most people would answer "who cares" as long as they are getting theirs. But if you are someone who believes those with money have a responsibility to help elevate those without, it's real hard to not feel dirty when you are one of the people seeing profits.
You'll do fine. Invest those bitcoins to altcoins, like Ripple or Ethereum. Cryptocurrency capitalisation is still steadily increasing. People are just dumping BTC for altcoins now, which is normal at the end of a strong uptrend. 6 months ago it was the opposite, i.e. altcoins rallied and then were dumped for Bitcoin. Just don't panic. If you're trying to participate in this, you can't take it too seriously, otherwise emotions will wreak havoc on your decision making. The whole trick is riding these waves, without expecting them to be constant.
One piece of long term advice would be to keep greed in check. It's better to make small profits and be calm, than make large profits and be nervous.
Another advice is, before entering a trade, have a clearcut plan of where you will take profit in case the trade goes your way, and where you will leave if it goes against you.
I know the emotional trip can be tough. I added my email to my user page, so get in touch if you need any kind of support, technical or otherwise.
All coins are dropping not just those 4. This is just history repeating itself. I'm sure it will upset people who are currently losing a lot of money right now, but you'd have to be blind to not see this coming. Investing any significant amount in the last week has been highly foolish.
Just mentioned yesterday how all the barbers at the shop I go to were really into bitcoin, which made me think the top was hit. Good thing I got out of there before I was scalped by accident.
Such cliche reasoning. If Bitcoin is going to be a successful currency and/or store of value, everyone and the brother needs to be talking about it (just like they talk about gold or the USD). I bet these same barbers have discussed the S&P500 and index funds, is it time to get out of those too?
It's a terrible currency, and I doubt many people are buying it because they believe in the underlying technology. It's all about getting rich quick. It may be a cliche but the logic is sound I think.
This is the history of Bitcoin. Booms and busts with no taxpayer funded bailouts. A decentralized and trustless currency is, in my opinion, the safest asset to have in the long term. The world's broken financial system is built on fraud and corruption. It won't end well for fiat bag holders.
What goes up must come down. Cryptocurrencies have no real economic value other than whatever people think they should be worth (which is interesting by itself). Once people stop believing the emperors not just naked then everyone will see him that way.
Bitcoin has immense economics value. There's no other asset on the planet that allows me to put my faith in logic and mathematics instead of a person or institution.
Meanwhile, there's a lot of people putting their faith in opaque corporations and unelected central bankers. With the markets sitting at all time highs by every historical measure and debt loads higher than ever it'll be interested to see how that works out for them.
Without more explanation, 'put my faith in logic and mathenatics instead of a person or institution' sounds like an empty statement to me. You are still betting on your belief that other human beings will want to buy bitcoins over time. Economics is about human beings in the end.
I believe crypto/blockchain will have tremendous use cases, and could end poverty via GBI... BUT BTC itself has MANY flaws, for instance if I want to send someone $10 of bitcoin it'll cost me $26 in transaction fees.
I might as well wire them the money it'd be cheaper...
The tech is good, but BTC itself not so much... My money is on Ardor. I'm putting all my money on their tech... so far I'm up 10x over what I started with.
edit: You also have to trust btc companies, miners, exchanges, developers, etc to all cooperate and move things in a positive way.. one bad fork, or 51% attack and it screws everything.
Bitcoin is the least risky of all the cryptocurrencies. It has the largest user base. It has the most widespread infrastructure. It has financial products and derivatives. Every other coin is unproven, many are mostly unheard of, and are the highest risk.
Most of the coins people are purchasing today have been around less than a year and probably have less than 1% of the users of Bitcoin. They're pretty unproven.
The things you say are true, but it's also suffering the worst from transaction fees, scalability problems and has worse technology and struggles to innovate.
Scalability problems sure, bitcoin is hardly struggling to innovate though. Rootstock, Schnorr signatures, mimble Wimble. These are awesome new technologies. Every coin today would have the same scaling problem bitcoin has if they had the same user base and amount of attacks going on.
At the moment, Ethereum is still up 8000+% for the year, Litecoin up 6300+% for the year. I think this is end of year profit taking. I do think these ecurrencies are all speculative (my bias), but today's event doesn't strike me as a crash. When the bubble pops we'll see these currencies in the vicinity of their starting prices.
56 comments
[ 2.8 ms ] story [ 116 ms ] threadAnyways, it's still higher than it was 3 weeks ago and appears to have found supports. Nothing goes straight up forever.
That said, look back next year and perhaps things won't be as gloomy as they are today.
Edit: I can't believe I'm saying this, but you might want to look at refinancing that debt using a credit card. Their APR tends to be around 10 to 13% per annum. Might as well limit the damage done.
https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/volatility-index/
But on the brighter side, there are far too many people involved for this to go full bust, the tech is solid, there's more and more exchanges launching associated products(bitcoin futures), Goldman is launching a full trading desk.
It's a thing now, just don't sell it yet and HODL. I hope you at least get your money back.
Of course this ignores how hamstrung the technology is by the IRS treating it as property subject to capital gains tax. If I have to worry about paying tax anytime it is converted to fiat or exchanged for goods and services of real value, the less motivated I am to do so.
For Bitcoin to die out, every single person needs to decide that doesn't want it.
Since people want bitcoin primarily because they believe other people want bitcoin, if 90% of the userbase shift to monero or ether or some other coin, there's really no reason for the 10% to hang around. Zero is a very plausible price for bitcoin.
I agree that it can happen, like the exodus from Digg to reddit, but the brand is strong and it will have serious financial implications making it significantly harder than creating an account on the competitors product and continue as is.
Disclaimer: I own zero cryptocurrencies, but have a decent knowledge of the space
Here's why I think Bitcoin will never go bust entirely, regardless of the day to day price: it's the area under the curve of POW energy expenditure. At this point, so much energy has been expended mining bitcoin that that in itself creates value. Even if the price crashes 100x it will always be worth something. And whatever that "something" is, no one can say yet. But I would wager that it's much higher than whatever the initial players bought in for (in terms of cash or energy spent mining). Sure plenty of other altcoins can come along in the future, but catching up with the level of work that has been done on the Bitcoin blockchain at this point seems impossible to ever do. It's simply a matter of compute power that is physically available.
But consider this... if the price were to go back to where it was just a year ago before the current mania (which is a common thing to happen when a financial bubble pops, after overcompensating to the downside) then it would be a 95% retracement from the highs (where, almost self-evidently, many people were buyers). And BTW a 95% retracement requires 20,000% gains to break even.
If you gave me a $1000 and I gave you $50 back, I think most people would say that I took all their money, even though technically they could still buy a couple pizzas or something.
So, again, it just depends on your definition of "full bust"
Bitcoins security relies on current hashing power and is completely indepent from past computations. If bitcoin falls to let's say $100 then major mining pools can do a 51% attack and make all the expended energy worthless.
Where is the money coming from when I sell? What percent of it is from someone else making a very poor financial decision in a desperate move to elevate their financial position?
I believe most people would answer "who cares" as long as they are getting theirs. But if you are someone who believes those with money have a responsibility to help elevate those without, it's real hard to not feel dirty when you are one of the people seeing profits.
One piece of long term advice would be to keep greed in check. It's better to make small profits and be calm, than make large profits and be nervous.
Another advice is, before entering a trade, have a clearcut plan of where you will take profit in case the trade goes your way, and where you will leave if it goes against you.
I know the emotional trip can be tough. I added my email to my user page, so get in touch if you need any kind of support, technical or otherwise.
Meanwhile, there's a lot of people putting their faith in opaque corporations and unelected central bankers. With the markets sitting at all time highs by every historical measure and debt loads higher than ever it'll be interested to see how that works out for them.
Bitfinex and Coinbase, for example.
I'll take US corporations backed by the US government over Chinese ones any day.
I might as well wire them the money it'd be cheaper...
The tech is good, but BTC itself not so much... My money is on Ardor. I'm putting all my money on their tech... so far I'm up 10x over what I started with.
edit: You also have to trust btc companies, miners, exchanges, developers, etc to all cooperate and move things in a positive way.. one bad fork, or 51% attack and it screws everything.