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Ask HN: Converting USD to EUR for max gain

5 points by tawayusdeur ↗ HN
I'm a Spanish dev working for an US company. Recently my stock options vested, and I sold everything getting USD in return. I used an USD account instead of converting to EUR the same day because the USD/EUR change was pretty bad (now is getting better). Those are money that I will have to use for my family for the years to come, but unfortunately I'm not exactly a market expert. Here there are people that are good not just with code, but also with this matters. Please, could you suggest me a simple strategy in order to avoid doing a mess while exchanging to EUR? For instance I could convert 20% every time the EUR looks weak, like today, or should I wait for months before changing? I understand noone has the magic answer here (otherwise you would be rich), but probably there are rules to follow to avoiding doing the worst conversion ever. Thanks.

10 comments

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jxub
Maybe just convert it all if the USD/EUR exchange rate on a given day is under n-day average, or dolar-cost average on a weekly basis. But I think holding on indefinitely to $ may cause devaluation of your capital because of inflation, and you might be better off putting some % of it in ETF's.
tawayusdeur
Thanks jxub, I need a short term strategy indeed. In about one year I'll pay a large amount in taxes to the Spanish government so anyway I need to exchange everything within the next 12 months or so. The ETF looks like a good idea, but if you look at the oscillations there are currently in the USD/EUR exchange rate, it is possible to make the same you make with ETF in one year in just a couple of days. This is why I think to have some decent strategy is useful in this case.
jxub
I see what you mean, go with it if you think you can pull it, be aware however that if your order is quite large you might influence the market, you could sell it in batches though to minimize risk. If you want to make a profit it's already active trading, and I'd be wary of doing forex with this sum of money. Anyway this stuff is quite far from my area of knowledge... Just never trust the market completely. Good luck!
hhmc
Unless you're trading >$1M you're not going to move the EURUSD market, and even then you're almost certainly fine. It's big institutional 9 figure orders where you need to worry. EURUSD is one of the most liquid markets in the world.
tawayusdeur
Thanks! I totally agree with the fact that Forex is such a terrible random thing to be in... The problem is that indeed I did not choose to be there, I happened to do Forex without wanting to do it. I think I'll sell in small batches, at the month low, and so be happy with the outcome regardless of the long term... In the long term $EURUSD may even go crazy and reach 1.4 and that would be terrible for me.
xstartup
It depends on when you need that money and for what without which it's difficult to give you any advise.
tawayusdeur
Pay taxes within one year (a large part unfortunately), and investing to counterbalance inflation.
thrway_463845
There is no winning strategy. If there was one, you could use it in both direction and get infinite money.