> Use that expertise to build a tilt-rotor commercial plane.
They have, it's called the AW609. And like its predecessor V-22, it has crashed and killed the occupants early on and is nowhere near commercial readiness.
Uber's estimates of commercial VTOL flight on an untested airframe by 2023 is total garbage, and they have to know it. The US military has sunk $50 Billion dollars into this problem over the last 30 years and still aren't there.
My guess is that Uber simply wants to maintain some hope of future growth, particularly with their autonomous car program in shambles.
Came here to say exactly this. I'd add that of the non-aerospace tech companies that have tried to build planes, I'm not aware of any that have launched commercially and I can only think of one that has ever flown.
Turns out that building commercial aircraft is still hard.
>The US military has sunk $50 Billion dollars into this problem over the last 30 years and still aren't there.
Bell X22 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arXpHn9DPYo ) was technically pretty successful from the start. The only disadvantage vs. V-22 is the speed - that speed though comes at the cost of lesser stability and safety and higher complexity of V-22. For commercial application the priorities would be different, and thus i think the multirotor, being more easy to develop, would come cheaper and sooner than that while any commercialization of V-22 is doomed from the start.
The X-22 was in no way more stable or safer than the V-22 it had just as much problems at start and unlike the V-22 which was based on the XV-3 and XV-15 those problems were not mainly in manufacturing.
Haha, yes. Glad you said this.
I don't know the exact requirement on FAA approving a new airplane / VTOL whatever, but I do know it takes a lot of time... Same reason I thought the supersonic company was a bit ambitious on their timeframe as well.
Development of a new airplane takes a long time. Trying to certify a plane by similarity usually takes 4-5 years, clean sheet design would take even longer.
Dassault's Falcon 6X (largely derived off the 5X that was cancelled due to design issues from the engine supplier Safran) was only just announced and isn't scheduled to go on sale until 2022, and a good portion of its design work has already been completed.
Sarcastic humor, but the fact of the matter is that Uber has a history of ignoring inconvenient laws, and the FAA really doesn't approve of "move fast and break things" in their jurisdiction.
> My guess is that Uber simply wants to maintain some hope of future growth, particularly with their autonomous car program in shambles.
They also benefit from future free advertising. Everytime you'll see a bit of news talking about autonomous drones, flying taxis, or the like, you can bet that the writer will mention Uber, thus giving them free Brand recognition. The same happened with Amazon's delivery drones, or Uber self driving cabs.
You jest, but cybernetic implants to remote control cockroaches and flying beetles is a thing, and even normal people can buy the former (RoboRoach Bundle is about US$160), so I wouldn’t be very surprised if someone makes a crab-based delivery cyborg.
Neural interfacing is not that complicated. It's just a microcontroller with two of the GPIO pins connected to antenna nerves, at most $5 worth of hardware.
Not only is it an untested VTOL airframe that'll be commercially available in 5 years, it's an electric plane that will have 60 mile range and 5 minute recharge time. I'm shocked that the articles writing about this thing take all these ridiculous claims at face value.
> The US military has sunk $50 Billion dollars into this problem over the last 30 years and still aren't there.
I suppose by "this problem" you referred to tilt-rotor technology. If so V-22 is combat ready, and has been deployed since 2007. Not sure what "still aren't there" means.
The next generation, Bell V-280 is in active development and already made the first flight [0]
"The Lexington Institute, in fact, is the one receiving money from a narrow corporate interest — Boeing."
EDIT: The only reason I looked for this connection was beacause the GP article was nicely written, long, and detailed, while the Lexington Institute seemed fluffy.
My guess is that there would be no pilots. Given they are attempting to get rid of drivers, getting rid of pilots in VTOL seems like an easier proposition with a large added weight advantage.
I think fully autonomous flight is a solution, but I also think it's further away than people imagine. For airplanes at least, the trickiest segments of flight are takeoffs and landings and even with today's advanced avionics suites, pilots are still in control for those portions of flight.
The other big factor is the passengers. Even if technology for fully autonomous passenger flight is available in the next 10 years, I don't think people will trust planes flying themselves.
DJI drones have been able to navigate back to their takeoff point and land automatically for a while now. Landing's much easier for a multicopter than for a fixed wing aircraft.
You still need to spend a lot of time in theory, and especially in Germany you need your radio certificates in English and German (which themselves take a long time).
After that, you can only fly a very limited subset of aircraft during the day under a certain altitude (and possibly certain weather conditions?). If you want to fly at night you need to get a certification for instrument flying.
Yes, that is the minimum number of required flight hours, but a Certificated Flight Instructor (CFI) must endorse a student pilot to take the practical test or checkride. A CFI’s certificate renews automatically if 80% of the people (and at least five of them) she endorses over a two-year period pass the checkride on the first attempt.
I have heard the U.S. average for number of flight hours logged prior to taking the private checkride is about 70. I know a couple of people who passed the forty hours total time (TT) mark on the flight to go meet the Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE) to take the checkride!
"[Uber's] electrically powered [concept aircraft] with two rotors for vertical flight and one for horizontal flight [...] is reminiscent of the V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor, where the propellers transition from vertical flight to horizontal – the difference being Uber’s rotors are fixed."
Whut the funk??!? How is this in any way similar??? Uh, correct me if I don't see something, but to me this is like saying something like: "Tesla Model 3 is similar to the Caterpillar CS-533E drum roller [1] — the difference being Tesla has 4 wheels"...
Similar in the sense that they have the same manufacturer I guess so there might be some shared tech. But other than that I agree with you, the Osprey is a tiltrotor aircraft whereas the Uber aircraft is not. Like you say it's more of an Autogyro.
I think the main difference here is that in the Autogyro and Gyrodyne the rotor is basically acting as a wing (either through autorotation for the Autogyro or the application of limited power for the Gyrodyne) while everything I have seen of the Uber fantasy and similar drone scale-ups uses powered rotors for most of the vertical lift.
The article reads like machine- or cocaine-generated slop. There doesn't seem to be a single credible assertion in it. It has literally no point, as the author openly admits near the end of the article ("just my thoughts"), just before he closes by asking us to read his profound insights into why flying things shouldn't be heavy. This prose would receive a failing grade in a high school composition class.
I'm trying to resist the "Why is this on HN?" question, but can't. This is appalling dreck and doesn't belong here.
Will this thing try to navigate as well as Uber's car-based navigation that occasionally tells its drivers in Las Vegas that the best route from the airport to The Bellagio is through the lobby of the MGM?
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[ 3.7 ms ] story [ 121 ms ] threadThey have, it's called the AW609. And like its predecessor V-22, it has crashed and killed the occupants early on and is nowhere near commercial readiness.
Uber's estimates of commercial VTOL flight on an untested airframe by 2023 is total garbage, and they have to know it. The US military has sunk $50 Billion dollars into this problem over the last 30 years and still aren't there.
My guess is that Uber simply wants to maintain some hope of future growth, particularly with their autonomous car program in shambles.
PS I sincerely hope I'm wrong.
Turns out that building commercial aircraft is still hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQK9m_OBVgY
>The US military has sunk $50 Billion dollars into this problem over the last 30 years and still aren't there.
Bell X22 ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arXpHn9DPYo ) was technically pretty successful from the start. The only disadvantage vs. V-22 is the speed - that speed though comes at the cost of lesser stability and safety and higher complexity of V-22. For commercial application the priorities would be different, and thus i think the multirotor, being more easy to develop, would come cheaper and sooner than that while any commercialization of V-22 is doomed from the start.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_XV-3
Dassault's Falcon 6X (largely derived off the 5X that was cancelled due to design issues from the engine supplier Safran) was only just announced and isn't scheduled to go on sale until 2022, and a good portion of its design work has already been completed.
And that's not the whole cost and time; they've been working on tiltrotors since the 1940s.
It sounds like the typical corner-cutting Uber.
They also benefit from future free advertising. Everytime you'll see a bit of news talking about autonomous drones, flying taxis, or the like, you can bet that the writer will mention Uber, thus giving them free Brand recognition. The same happened with Amazon's delivery drones, or Uber self driving cabs.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_V-280_Valor
I suppose by "this problem" you referred to tilt-rotor technology. If so V-22 is combat ready, and has been deployed since 2007. Not sure what "still aren't there" means.
The next generation, Bell V-280 is in active development and already made the first flight [0]
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bell_V-280_Valor
[1] https://medium.com/war-is-boring/your-periodic-reminder-that...
[1] http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/v-22-is-the-safest-most-su...
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/lexington-institutes-w...
"The Lexington Institute, in fact, is the one receiving money from a narrow corporate interest — Boeing."
EDIT: The only reason I looked for this connection was beacause the GP article was nicely written, long, and detailed, while the Lexington Institute seemed fluffy.
The other big factor is the passengers. Even if technology for fully autonomous passenger flight is available in the next 10 years, I don't think people will trust planes flying themselves.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.zdnet.com/google-amp/art...
No idea why I have been downvotes above. Great to see intelligent conversations is rewarded with down votes here.
Wow, you can get a pilot's license that quick? In Germany you need 30h of driving just to get a regular car license. No large trailer or truck.
After that, you can only fly a very limited subset of aircraft during the day under a certain altitude (and possibly certain weather conditions?). If you want to fly at night you need to get a certification for instrument flying.
I have heard the U.S. average for number of flight hours logged prior to taking the private checkride is about 70. I know a couple of people who passed the forty hours total time (TT) mark on the flight to go meet the Designated Pilot Examiner (DPE) to take the checkride!
Getting to fly a huge Boeing/Airbus takes years.
Whut the funk??!? How is this in any way similar??? Uh, correct me if I don't see something, but to me this is like saying something like: "Tesla Model 3 is similar to the Caterpillar CS-533E drum roller [1] — the difference being Tesla has 4 wheels"...
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caterpillar_CS-533E
I'm in no way an aircraft person, but if I were to try to look for similarities to something, the following are more like what I'd think of:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gyrodyne
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autogyro
What's the glideslope of a multirotor vehicle?
I'm trying to resist the "Why is this on HN?" question, but can't. This is appalling dreck and doesn't belong here.