The headline accurately reflects the text of the article, but the text doesn't accurately reflect the poll it is based on.
> A poll released Sunday by a local advocacy group showed that 46 percent of Bay Area residents surveyed said they want to move out of the area within the next few years.
1. A poll will only be released by an advocacy group if it can be spun to confirm the propaganda interest for which it was commissioned, and such groups will continue to commission new surveys until they get one that confirms their narrative to release. But it's a bad sign when they have to release something they still takes massive spin to confirm the narrative...
2. The poll didn't survey residents, it surveyed registered voters which are demographically and otherwise a nonrepresentative group compared to the wider pool of residents, so even if it were a valid survey of registered voters (which is a dumb universe to poll on this question), its not valid to generalize from that to residents.
3. The poll doesn't ask them if they want to leave, it asks them if they expect to leave. That’s a radically different question.
4. It's a quite transparent push poll, where the “do you expect to move out” question is the last question, and both the first question and the immediate preceding question (the two most influential in leading the response) are negatively framed, while all other questions are neutrally framed, with no positively framed questions.
5. While the numbers change year to year, it's a repeated poll which always produces a big number that gets breathless media coverage, but there's no evidence that the responses actually predict the magnitude of Bay Area exits (even in the RV population.)
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[ 0.27 ms ] story [ 16.8 ms ] thread> A poll released Sunday by a local advocacy group showed that 46 percent of Bay Area residents surveyed said they want to move out of the area within the next few years.
1. A poll will only be released by an advocacy group if it can be spun to confirm the propaganda interest for which it was commissioned, and such groups will continue to commission new surveys until they get one that confirms their narrative to release. But it's a bad sign when they have to release something they still takes massive spin to confirm the narrative...
2. The poll didn't survey residents, it surveyed registered voters which are demographically and otherwise a nonrepresentative group compared to the wider pool of residents, so even if it were a valid survey of registered voters (which is a dumb universe to poll on this question), its not valid to generalize from that to residents.
3. The poll doesn't ask them if they want to leave, it asks them if they expect to leave. That’s a radically different question.
4. It's a quite transparent push poll, where the “do you expect to move out” question is the last question, and both the first question and the immediate preceding question (the two most influential in leading the response) are negatively framed, while all other questions are neutrally framed, with no positively framed questions.
5. While the numbers change year to year, it's a repeated poll which always produces a big number that gets breathless media coverage, but there's no evidence that the responses actually predict the magnitude of Bay Area exits (even in the RV population.)