Here is a great podcast about the nuclear-powered cruise missile (the one that spews radiation as its exhaust, is >180dB loud from the ground, and has unlimited range) - and a public analysis of its testing in the arctic.
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1205364/russias-cras...
It comes with some strong shout-outs to Planet (satellite startup), and goes into some technical detail about how they've gone about geo-locating where the tests occurred.
Both US and USSR experimented with it in 60s. But since "traditional" ICBMs where good enough there was no need for nuclear propulsion. Complicated, radioactive and not ready for use. Even though nuclear propulsion was fairly advanced.
I keep looking for this analysis from someone serious and not finding it, but... frankly Putin is starting to look a little desperate. He's invading neighbors for fundamentally stupid reasons, he's directly intervening in the internal politics of basically every nation with white people in it. He's straight up engaging in assassinations on foreign soil (another nerve agent death just two weeks ago in the UK).
Things just don't seem to be going his way, and he's taking risks that seem geopolitically absurd (and very much not in keeping with Putin's MO for the rest of his career). Even the guy he wanted for POTUS turns out to be a bumbling idiot who "says" the things Putin wants but doesn't seem to be able to effect much policy (though Trump did "ignorify" the most recent sanctions bill).
Maybe the Magnitsky act and related actions really are having an effect, and this is Putin trying desperately to hold onto power locally in Russia?
Not qualified to judge. But it feels right to me...
I don't think there are any serious threats to Putin inside Russia right now. All "legal" political parties are under his thumb, and the "illegal" ones (mostly Alexei Navalny's followers) failed to display significant influence so far. The siloviki group behind Putin won't benefit much from replacing him, as he's doing a reasonably good job of representing their ambitions. These people seem to be too paranoid and power-hungry to change the political course of the country because of some economical sanctions.
That's the conventional wisdom. I'm just saying I find that hard to square with poisoning folks in London and issuing dick-swaggering videos like this. Those look like actions taken to boost local popularity and quiet internal dissent: "Look how great we are! Also if you cross me I'll find you wherever you may be hiding and poison your ass."
I don't doubt that his position is mechanically secure. But he's still just one guy, and the oligarchs as a whole control more of the money, and they're all hurting right now.
It seems like most people who manage to hold on to power for long periods of time become fundamentally paranoid. They aren't just looking at present threats, but basically are doing a Bayesian analysis of potential outcomes and trying to situate themselves in the best possible way for all of them.
For example, Putin may have a pretty firm grip now, but what happens during a sharp economic downturn when some of the oligarchs start to really feel pinched? Since this is almost sure to happen eventually and Putin appears to want power for life, he probably thinks a lot about this and other possible existential threats to his regime and acts accordingly.
Leaders with term limits do less of this long term thinking and are therefore less likely to make these kinds of dramatic moves when things seem to be going well for them (for better and for worse).
I think it's time we all take a step back, take a look at all the accusations that have been made following Hillary's loss, and start reviewing the actual evidence.
Well, I guess it'd been five or six minutes since I read something in the media trying to stir people up about Russia. I'm still trying to figure out just why this full-court press is being put on, when there seems to be so little to be gained by brinksmanship, but that's all above my pay grade.
The Russian/Soviet/Russian defense industry has a pretty long history of fiddling with over-the-top weapons systems, very few of which ever are quite as successful as feared.
Putin's motives are as simple as a playground bully. He has an inferiority complex; he wants to prove that he and his nation are rougher and tougher than the others. Not because there's anything rational to be gained by that; just because he wants it.
For Ur-Fascism there is no struggle for life but, rather, life is lived for struggle. Thus pacifism is trafficking with the enemy. It is bad because life is permanent warfare.
As I can remember previous video of their 'super' nuclear-powered missile proved to be a complete render, since prototype flew without any nuclear propulsion and therefore for a short time.
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[ 9.3 ms ] story [ 1165 ms ] threadIt comes with some strong shout-outs to Planet (satellite startup), and goes into some technical detail about how they've gone about geo-locating where the tests occurred.
Very scary/crazy weapons here...
Things just don't seem to be going his way, and he's taking risks that seem geopolitically absurd (and very much not in keeping with Putin's MO for the rest of his career). Even the guy he wanted for POTUS turns out to be a bumbling idiot who "says" the things Putin wants but doesn't seem to be able to effect much policy (though Trump did "ignorify" the most recent sanctions bill).
Maybe the Magnitsky act and related actions really are having an effect, and this is Putin trying desperately to hold onto power locally in Russia?
Not qualified to judge. But it feels right to me...
I don't doubt that his position is mechanically secure. But he's still just one guy, and the oligarchs as a whole control more of the money, and they're all hurting right now.
For example, Putin may have a pretty firm grip now, but what happens during a sharp economic downturn when some of the oligarchs start to really feel pinched? Since this is almost sure to happen eventually and Putin appears to want power for life, he probably thinks a lot about this and other possible existential threats to his regime and acts accordingly.
Leaders with term limits do less of this long term thinking and are therefore less likely to make these kinds of dramatic moves when things seem to be going well for them (for better and for worse).
You can't be serious.
I think it's time we all take a step back, take a look at all the accusations that have been made following Hillary's loss, and start reviewing the actual evidence.
Of course, there is no evidence for any of it.
The Russian/Soviet/Russian defense industry has a pretty long history of fiddling with over-the-top weapons systems, very few of which ever are quite as successful as feared.
For Ur-Fascism there is no struggle for life but, rather, life is lived for struggle. Thus pacifism is trafficking with the enemy. It is bad because life is permanent warfare.