> […] rising political tensions between the self-ruled island and Beijin […] mean that the scheme is unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. However, some researchers said it was possible that Beijing would start work on the project in a unilateral, and largely symbolic move.
Sometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no outside interference is likely to occur — outside of the vehement disagreements and strong protests of course, but no military action; nor anything more than token sanctions.
But at least the Crimeans got a new bridge out of it…
"What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway."
China views Taiwan as inexorably part of their homeland. The existence of a 'separate Taiwan' is kind of like a permanent stain to them.
Imagine if during major American political upheaval, Texas became it's own state again, and after takeover by Central/South American political entities, decided not to rejoin the rest of the US as the political situation stabilized.
Americans wouldn't rest until they reclaimed it.
I'm not justifying it and personally I would have liked to have seen a 'Chinese Federation' i.e. Hong Kong, Taiwan, mainland China, possibly even Manchuria as separate entities, possibly with 'Tibet' as managed-but-autonomous region. Instead of a single autocracy.
Win win then....let them join each other :) China is going to wait for the right moment, decades or centuries from now, but unless China is split in several countries /weakened I don't see Taiwan lasting. If I were Mongolia I'd be losing sleep too. Siberia too, but at least Russia has thousands of nukes. https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-bo...
From a military perspective, Taiwan is a extremely important to China because of where it is located. Their fear is that the US would use Taiwan as a base of operation to refuel and attack China. It’s in their best interest to reclaim that land.
Like all politicians, domestic policies are usually harder to gain political points vs foreign policies. It is also much harder to fix when problems arise. This is why head of states like the US president have traditionally spent more time on foreign policy. All leaders think about their legacy. If Xi can reclaim Taiwan, he will be remembered for decades. That is powerful motivation for any leader, especially one that is elderly.
The US is currently run by a lunatic. Are you so sure Trump would impose sanctions? Most of his decisions are made in a fit of rage, rather than thoughtful thinking. The fact he met with Kim, should tell you something about his decision making. The problem is Americans has played this big brother role for the last 50 years, but now there is a potential contender on the playground. I am not sure the US can do much here considering China is cash rich to withstand any sanctions you impose on them. China can use Trumps playbook too if they wanted like subsidising farmers, but they haven’t cause they don’t need to.
The US has South Korea, Japan and Guam. Taiwan isn’t of military strategic importance to the US nor would it likely serve as a base for any assault on the mainland.
I said strategic importance to China. Not the USA. South Korea, Japan, and Guam are a drop in the bucket compared to China in terms of military might and economy, unfortunately.
Those all host US military bases, Guam isn’t even a nation it’s a US territory.
I suggest you look up US deployments and see why Taiwan while is of a huge cultural, political and ideological significance isn’t that much of a strategic significance in a conflict there are a lot of assets in theater already and the US while being a military backer of Taiwan limits its presence and support in order to never make them significant enough to justify an invasion.
Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is of strategic importance to the US and Europe. For that reason alone I think Taiwan will always enjoy better protection than a relatively unimportant participant in the world economy like Crimea.
I doubt it. Russia really needs Crimea, a matter of NATSEC as they have no warm water ports https://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/index.ssf/2014/03/russias... . Russia was already in the doghouse so it's like killing one more person after you've killed 5 others. China on the other hand, knows that Taiwan isn't going anywhere and it's not worth war, embargoes and what not. IMO they are patient...
As for Crimeans, who knows, they could all be happier under Russia for all we know.
On the other hand much of the world is more dependent on China's cheap manufacturing and products than anyone was for Russian products which makes sanctioning (or going to war with) them much harder. It'd definitely be interesting to see how far the One China but not really policy that most of the world follows will stretch if/when China actually makes an Over move against Taiwan.
The tunnel is something that mostly makes sense but will be held up by political differences (compare: Japan-Korea tunnel)
I think that using force to take Taiwan would be a huge mistake for PRC. It would provide an impetus for essentially every other nation in Asia to put aside their differences and make a serious anti-PRC military alliance.
The Taiwan situation isn’t really comparable to Crimea. It was a violent separation as opposed to a symbolic gesture; when the USSR gifted Crimea from Russia to Ukraine it wasn’t a big deal because they were part of the same country anyway.
The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. That is the policy, and that is what will happen.
This is why China is using espionage, soft power, and cultural imperialism to annex Taiwan.
"The United States will immediately initiate a hot war against China and attempt to decapitate China's government if China attempts to annex Taiwan. "
Oh gosh, not quite.
This is a kind of cold war policy with caveats.
If China escalates militarily, US will likely tit-for tat and yes, may be involved in actual, armed conflict as it escalates Ex: China sends Aircraft carrier, US does as well, small gunboat firefights ensue, US participates, maybe some naval firing back and forth, Chinese marines found on Taiwan, US marines land as well, China does electronic attacks, US response.
But ...
In an unlikely 'Blitzkrieg' scenario, whereby China launches a very swift and unanticipated attack on Taiwan - say: multi-beachead marine landing, paratroopers, 5th column destruction of comms equipment, drone and cruise missile attacks, total electronic-warfare shutdown - and the Chinese have militarily occupied most of the major and important installations in say, 48 hours ...
Do you think the US is going to ramp up 500K soldiers and 'invade Taiwan'? It would be logistically difficult, and militarily questionable: the Chinese are well armed, and can fight, and landing beachheads in that scenario, so far from home, against a large enemy may simply be futile. In fact, the Chinese may possibly be able to easily defend themselves against very vulnerable US Navy ships these days.
The US/world reaction may be to use the US Navy to blockade Taiwan and all of China, and to launch electronic and economic attack on China.
But I doubt if the US would respond in a full-on WW3 scenario.
As the commenter posted, a gradual, even softer-than-Crimea takeover is much more likely.
Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum.
The Chinese have the advantage of taking a very 'long view' of things and can have '50 year plans' for such things. Western democracy unfortunately doesn't allow for that so often.
If the US didn't honour its commitments and let Taiwan fall, Japan, Korea and all other neighbours would no longer be able to rely on US protection and seek their own weapons of mass destruction. The instability of that scenario would almost certainly lead to WW3 and be more detrimental to US interests than a skirmish over Taiwan.
> Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum.
You are ignorant. Taiwanese identification with China has been falling steadily for decades. According to current polling, somewhat less than half would support a declaration of independence and the inevitable conflict that would come with it, but a small single digit percentage are willing to join the PRC.
No. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would not directly threaten Japan or Korea as China has never had any claim or interest there, furthermore, it would massively increase Asian-US/EU ties. It would rock the world and everyone would be setting up new military ties to ensure border integrity.
It doesn't matter how popular Chinese reunification is today, because the mainland is getting ever more powerful and can orchestrate outcomes they desire. Did you think that Crimeans were pinning to rejoin Russia before the stealth-takeover? Not really.
"You are ignorant" - get off of HN if you're going rip like that.
What is this "reunification" you speak of? Taiwan has never been part of the PRC. Before its current state, it was part of Japan. You could go back to the peak of the Qing Dynasty, but clearly that isn't a nation that currently exists.
It's like talking about "reunifying" Austria with Germany based on the previous borders of the Holy Roman Empire which once contained both.
You totally missed the point. If Taiwan and mainland China unite, it will be more like the East Germany and West Germany reunified in 1990. Taiwan was part of China historically. The people in Taiwan are Chinese people. It will be only a question of time when Taiwan returns to China.
Highly doubt PR China would do something like that. Part of the contention is that Taiwan (aka Republic of China) still lays claim to the land occupied by People’s Republic of China, but at the same time refuses to grant citizenship to the People of the People’s Republic of China.
The Korean war, similarly, has also been prolonged by the South, which is the only party that has not signed the peace treaty.
Highly unlikely. Ever since the US Congress passed a Taiwan Relations Act, military defense of Taiwan is a enshrined in law. Furthermore, Taiwan is a fully democratic nation with a population slightly larger than that of Australia.
The entire crux of post WWII US geopolitical strategy rests on a promise to defend Japan, Korea the Philippines, Taiwan and various other territories in exchange for those territories not pursuing nuclear weapons or aggressive military forces of their own. In the very unlikely even that the US chose not to defend Taiwan despite the TRA, Japan, Korea, Thailand and half a dozen other neighboring countries would nuclearize within weeks, days or even hours.
This would be a nightmare scenario not only from the US perspective but also from China's.
36 comments
[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 88.7 ms ] threadSometimes I wonder if we're nearing a time when we'll see China simply do a Crimea and annex Taiwan when geopolitical circumstances mean no outside interference is likely to occur — outside of the vehement disagreements and strong protests of course, but no military action; nor anything more than token sanctions.
But at least the Crimeans got a new bridge out of it…
US will surely impose tough sanctions on China, which would be much more disastrous to them than the sanctions US imposed on Russia after Crimea.
EU will likely join in.
What will China actually gain from this? Not much besides scoring some political gains at home which they don't need anyway.
China views Taiwan as inexorably part of their homeland. The existence of a 'separate Taiwan' is kind of like a permanent stain to them.
Imagine if during major American political upheaval, Texas became it's own state again, and after takeover by Central/South American political entities, decided not to rejoin the rest of the US as the political situation stabilized.
Americans wouldn't rest until they reclaimed it.
I'm not justifying it and personally I would have liked to have seen a 'Chinese Federation' i.e. Hong Kong, Taiwan, mainland China, possibly even Manchuria as separate entities, possibly with 'Tibet' as managed-but-autonomous region. Instead of a single autocracy.
Like all politicians, domestic policies are usually harder to gain political points vs foreign policies. It is also much harder to fix when problems arise. This is why head of states like the US president have traditionally spent more time on foreign policy. All leaders think about their legacy. If Xi can reclaim Taiwan, he will be remembered for decades. That is powerful motivation for any leader, especially one that is elderly.
The US is currently run by a lunatic. Are you so sure Trump would impose sanctions? Most of his decisions are made in a fit of rage, rather than thoughtful thinking. The fact he met with Kim, should tell you something about his decision making. The problem is Americans has played this big brother role for the last 50 years, but now there is a potential contender on the playground. I am not sure the US can do much here considering China is cash rich to withstand any sanctions you impose on them. China can use Trumps playbook too if they wanted like subsidising farmers, but they haven’t cause they don’t need to.
I suggest you look up US deployments and see why Taiwan while is of a huge cultural, political and ideological significance isn’t that much of a strategic significance in a conflict there are a lot of assets in theater already and the US while being a military backer of Taiwan limits its presence and support in order to never make them significant enough to justify an invasion.
Nobody is thinking that the US is going to attack the Chinese mainland.
Doubtful. The EU, and France in particular, has been selling China weapons for over a decade.
As for Crimeans, who knows, they could all be happier under Russia for all we know.
I think that using force to take Taiwan would be a huge mistake for PRC. It would provide an impetus for essentially every other nation in Asia to put aside their differences and make a serious anti-PRC military alliance.
The Taiwan situation isn’t really comparable to Crimea. It was a violent separation as opposed to a symbolic gesture; when the USSR gifted Crimea from Russia to Ukraine it wasn’t a big deal because they were part of the same country anyway.
This is why China is using espionage, soft power, and cultural imperialism to annex Taiwan.
Oh gosh, not quite.
This is a kind of cold war policy with caveats.
If China escalates militarily, US will likely tit-for tat and yes, may be involved in actual, armed conflict as it escalates Ex: China sends Aircraft carrier, US does as well, small gunboat firefights ensue, US participates, maybe some naval firing back and forth, Chinese marines found on Taiwan, US marines land as well, China does electronic attacks, US response.
But ...
In an unlikely 'Blitzkrieg' scenario, whereby China launches a very swift and unanticipated attack on Taiwan - say: multi-beachead marine landing, paratroopers, 5th column destruction of comms equipment, drone and cruise missile attacks, total electronic-warfare shutdown - and the Chinese have militarily occupied most of the major and important installations in say, 48 hours ...
Do you think the US is going to ramp up 500K soldiers and 'invade Taiwan'? It would be logistically difficult, and militarily questionable: the Chinese are well armed, and can fight, and landing beachheads in that scenario, so far from home, against a large enemy may simply be futile. In fact, the Chinese may possibly be able to easily defend themselves against very vulnerable US Navy ships these days.
The US/world reaction may be to use the US Navy to blockade Taiwan and all of China, and to launch electronic and economic attack on China.
But I doubt if the US would respond in a full-on WW3 scenario.
As the commenter posted, a gradual, even softer-than-Crimea takeover is much more likely.
Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum.
The Chinese have the advantage of taking a very 'long view' of things and can have '50 year plans' for such things. Western democracy unfortunately doesn't allow for that so often.
> Supporting pro-China elements in Taiwan, spending a generation 'educating' (i.e. propaganda) Taiwanese that they are in fact part of 'mainland China', using coercive economic incentives ... I think that Taiwan may ultimately join China through a slightly shady but nevertheless 'legal' popular referendum.
You are ignorant. Taiwanese identification with China has been falling steadily for decades. According to current polling, somewhat less than half would support a declaration of independence and the inevitable conflict that would come with it, but a small single digit percentage are willing to join the PRC.
It doesn't matter how popular Chinese reunification is today, because the mainland is getting ever more powerful and can orchestrate outcomes they desire. Did you think that Crimeans were pinning to rejoin Russia before the stealth-takeover? Not really.
"You are ignorant" - get off of HN if you're going rip like that.
It's like talking about "reunifying" Austria with Germany based on the previous borders of the Holy Roman Empire which once contained both.
The Korean war, similarly, has also been prolonged by the South, which is the only party that has not signed the peace treaty.
The entire crux of post WWII US geopolitical strategy rests on a promise to defend Japan, Korea the Philippines, Taiwan and various other territories in exchange for those territories not pursuing nuclear weapons or aggressive military forces of their own. In the very unlikely even that the US chose not to defend Taiwan despite the TRA, Japan, Korea, Thailand and half a dozen other neighboring countries would nuclearize within weeks, days or even hours.
This would be a nightmare scenario not only from the US perspective but also from China's.
This is false. It's slightly smaller.
Good luck with that.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/britain-feared-nazi-chunn...
How about to build an underwater tunnel between the mainland and Hainan[0]?
Oh wait somebody mentioned it[1] at 2010, and someone else did it[2] again at 2018.
Well, then good luck to that tunnel.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qiongzhou_Strait
[1] (Reference) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qiongzhou_Strait#cite_note-Soh... (2010)
[2] (Reference) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qiongzhou_Strait#cite_note-4 (2018)