Ask HN: Why salaries are not going up?

31 points by jakark ↗ HN
I work in the south of France, for the past year and a half I have been hearing that engineers and software developers are missing and companies have been unable to fill roles for months and months.

Yet, I don't see any significant raise in the salaries I'm being offered (2 years experience 40'000€ for 40 hour week), if the companies are so desperate to find developers why aren't they making their offers more attractive? Or am I missing something ?

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I wonder how much of this is due to cheap outsourcing, keeping the salaries lower for a non architect role?

(If you're in an architect type role I guess you have a higher salary)

It could be outsourcing, but also could be consulting. I have an impression (and no way backed by data), that half jobs around here are not direct employee but people working for a consulting company, even tho they're 100% daily working for a client.

But even those consulting companies are having issues getting new developers but don't seem to be getting their salaries much higher.

^ I have seen much of this in the Netherlands. A lot of "Full Time" Consultants.
I have always wondered about the reason for this. But I guess its mostly because letting go a consultant is less expensive than firing an employee.
Consultants might pay less, but typically charge more! So perhaps a Dev costs $40k, consulting company might pay the dev $30k but charge the company $60k
That's true for large companies like Accenture, but there's plenty of setups where the consulting company is essentially doing nothing (only providing a legal intermediary between the consultant and the client) and its cut is below 20%. The net effect is that the consultant is making a multiple of his team mates salaries.

I think this is a deliberate play on the company's part, as it's a way to compartmentalize candidates according to their negotiation skills. Full time jobs are essentially for people who are poor at negotiation and at figuring out what options are available, and the company gets to have them at the fraction of their value. For smarter people, the company bites the bullet and takes them in as consultants, with much higher pay. This way, the official wages for full-time employees get to stay low and you can always say to a gullible candidate that the maximum salary for the position is so and so.

This is all about Western Europe and about huge, bureucratic and successful corporations that have more money that sense (banks etc.). I don't think it applies to smaller companies which are not swimming in money.

Not just for big companies like Accenture.

The Spanish market is full of small consultancies and they still charge a 2.5-3 times the worker salary to their clients.

This makes very hard for anyone to get a salary above 45k euros because paying above 150k (21% VAT included) is hard to justify just for one person.

In Poland it's similar. However, in UK, Germany, Switzerland, Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, Finland (just examples of countries where I or my colleagues have contracted in the past) companies are open to paying 100k-200k EUR directly to the contractor, provided he has the skills they're after.
It's for sure partialy due to outsourcing, but I wouldn't neccessarily call it cheap. An experienced developer in Poland costs around 50k euros per year, which I guess is a bit less than in France, but not that much. However, if moving work to Eastern Europe were not an option, the companies would have no choice but to pay more in Western Europe (or try outsourcing software engineering to India, but that seldomly works).
IMHO when companies announce that there is a worker shortage, what they are actually stating is that the negotiating power in the current job market may be shifting away from corporations

These corporations may have started having some issues retaining key employees and discovered that expertise and takent doesn't spring from nowhere, which affects productivity to their surprise as highly skilled employees aren't growing on trees and can't be replaced as soon as their employee leaves. So before they need to do something about working conditions (i.e. absurdly long hours and stressful environment) and wages they instead try to manipulate the job market by requesting a sudden influx of canonfodder to shift the negotiating power back into their hands.

Optics versus reality. Is the work still getting done? Then how, and where?

People (meaning also, people in business) can and do say any damned thing. What are they doing?

Salaries are a very sticky and lagging indicator for the labor market.
People like security, stability, and safety. They want a company to give them salary, benefits, a decent life. They don't want to worry about running a business, making next months paycheque, worrying about sales and so on. Companies know this as well. Why would they pay you if you have no incentive to do start your own business. It just means the people in your job market have given up and don't care about money.

If you want more money, ask for it. If they offer $40,000, then tell them you won't touch this job for under $140,000. If the rest of the developers did the same, they would start paying that, but they won't because everyone wants stability.

Then you get to the point where $500K is not enough as a salary, and companies know this also, so you are going to quit and start your own business. If they can keep you around for longer and longer before you quit, the lower they start you, the more time they can keep you, in essence growing their business.

Either start your own company, or ask for a lot more and be prepared not to receive the offer.

I've heard many companies say they can't hire a single developer, and then pass on good candidates.

It's easier to blame the market than admit "we are terrible at recruiting."

Yes, the prevailing attitude is that someone's GitHub, knowledge, experience, and portfolio might as well be entirely a lie if they can't solve a particular dynamic programming LeetCode toy problem du jour on-the-fly on a whiteboard.

It's also a potential killer advantage for startups to be able to recognize budding coder talent that doesn't check off all the boxes that say FAANG recruiters have. It's still very much an inefficient market, and people that can't code aren't necessarily the best at recognizing coder talent.

I've never seen a whiteboard interview in the UK, I imagine the op would probably confirm he's never seen one in France.

The whiteboard thing seems to be a US obsession.

How else would you do a tech interview?
I've had to code something that actually had to do with the job a few times. Like write a basic page that displays X from table Y. Fill in the missing JavaScript function that does Y. Write a SQL query for the report Z. Usually left alone to do it at a computer in the de facto editor for that language.

I've also had written tests with questions to do with the job, not trick questions, just straight, normal, day-to-day problems. Usually 10 or so that start easy and get harder.

Salaries are definitely going up in some locations (Silicon Valley for instance).

As a developer, you are better off working for a company where software is the product, not a cost center. Don’t be perceived as interchangeable with other SSII engineers.

People don't like paying more for the same thing.

There can be cultural reasons which make this more sticky in some places like France perhaps. I came across a survey in Japan where companies also said they were having trouble hiring and only 1/11 companies said they would consider raising wages. America has the highest software developer salaries in the world because there is more of a cultural acceptance of the free market and realization that it can make good business sense to pay more.

I come from a place where salaries advance very slowly and unfortunately, in places like this, companies would rather pass on good candidates than pay more. It means their company grows slower. But they get to keep the illusion of control.

It comes down to the founder's dilemma [1] that permeates through the culture of a company - Does the owner want to be rich or king? If the company owner/managers are more interested in being king, they will generally not pay higher salaries unless the situation gets so dire than they begrudgingly are forced to. You want to try to work for companies where they want to be rich. Unfortunately, in a place where the general culture does not encourage this, these companies will be very tough to find.

[1] https://hbr.org/2008/02/the-founders-dilemma

> People don't like paying more for the same thing.

I think this is right, and it applied to your milk. For example I would be shocked if the price of milk was doubled from AU$3 to AU$6 here, but at say 3 cartons a week the total cost of that would be about $40 a week. Whereas if I have to pay another $40 a week due to an interest rate rise I'd take it. It's a weird psychological thing (makes it hard to live in another country!)

> Does the owner want to be rich or king?

Another option is to work for a company (ideally contract work) that doesn't have a single owner or small cohort of owners. This would be a large corporation.

I don't know about France, but in the U.S., those complaints just mean it's become difficult to get H1B workers, not that they feel the need to pay anybody any more.

The hope is that their complaints will be answered by a Republican congress allowing them more cheap, disposable labor, not a recognition that labor generally needs to be paid more.

I’ve definitely noticed software development salaries for both “full stack web developers” and mobile developers peak in my local US metro. Companies seem to have stayed in the range of $105K - $130K [1] since around 2012 when we were coming out of the recession. Web development has become somewhat of a commodity and companies can outsource it or “rural source” it to cheaper parts of the country.

Moving into “team lead”/architect role seems to change the range to $125K - $155K. The only way to make more is by being a billable consultant. That ranges from $145K - $175K.

[1] These are the salary ranges for most cities outside of Silicon Valley/West Coast, DC, and New York where the salaries and cost of living are a lot lower.

https://www.matrixres.com/resources/salary-survey/

I bet it's the same problem in France as in Sweden. Programmers are managed by managers. Therefore managers are ranked higher than programmers. Therefore managers make more money than programmers. But there is no shortage of managers. Therefore managers' salaries are not increasing. Therefore programmers salaries must not increase because they must not surpass managers' salaries.
I think that's exactly the reason why titles are all just b.s.

It should be more like, pay $200000 because he's good rather than because he is a senior engineer. Companies should get rid of the titling bull crap and just let it all be based on salary.