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Ask HN: How to measure the size of a market?

22 points by cmontgomeryb ↗ HN
I have an idea for a mobile app. I have been learning the Android platform recently, hoping for an idea to come along.

Working with a platform such as Android, rather than the web obviously limits the market to owners of Android devices - MUCH smaller than the amount of people with access to a web browser.

The market for the core functionality of my idea is huge - I haven't done the research in terms of numbers (that's today's job, I'm doing it now!) but it's on the news often.

How do I find out how many people are both in the market for my apps functionality, AND have an Android device (or "have an Android device AND would be willing to pay for an app")? Is there anything other than guesswork from combining the numbers of the 2 markets?

17 comments

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TomK32
Why not ask you friends and colleagues who have an Android phone? Show them a mockup, what the app will do, ask them for feedback and wether they would pay $xx for it. Watch them cosely and only count those who are competely into it, divide that by the total number of people who asked and you have a rough percentage that you can apply on the number of android users in the U.S or elsewhere.
rkwz
You know that market for this is huge, but not the exact numbers. So, you can test the waters by releasing the app with basic functionality (as a free app?). See how the first few customers respond to it, listen to them and gradually improve your app. You can add some premium features in future and charge for it.
cmontgomeryb
Hmm, I would have liked to have an idea of the market size before working too much - though the size of the market for the core functionality is huge, I have absolutely no idea about the crossover to those who also own Android devices - it could be almost nonexistant for all I know.

I will mention that I have found an app on the Market that doesn some of my idea. There were 4 reviews and 6 ratings. It had 2 stars, and all 4 reviews were about the UI (which was indeed aweful). I wonder if the fact that there is only 1 app currently (that I could find) there is no demand ... or it could be that the demand is just not filled at present.

Ataraxy
Build a super simple web survey that's mobile friendly. Spend a few bucks advertising on admob as if you were advertising the app. Collect feedback, gauge interest. Don't forget to collect emails on the last page for those that complete it.
zaidf
Find a site or two dedicated to folks in your market. These are usually forums/blogs etc. Since you say your core market is big, finding these should not be an issue.

Buy some ad on those sites that links/shows a poll "Do you own an Android?" or something to that nature.

That'll give you SOME idea. Also, don't forget that with a hot and new product like Android, the numbers are changing literally. Translation: don't depend too much on market size because it may literally change significantly month to month in Android's case.

cmontgomeryb
I like the idea generally, and it would probably be the first place I'd look - communities and such. The problem here is that the market isn't one that has necessarily _chosen_ to be a part of the market and wouldn't for the most part be interested in a community/forum/gathering place.

I think a good way to think about what I'm looking at is medication - how many people are on medication? How many of those own Android devices - this is the number I'm looking for. People "on medication" aren't a group like "people who like skiing", and so mostly aren't to be found in online communities.

Dylanb
This provides the methodology used to calculate the market size for an iPhone app: http://blog.jwegener.com/2009/08/03/million-dollar-iphone-ap...

Keep in mind Android fragmentation as well: http://blog.tweetdeck.com/android-ecosystem

BANSAL
It's nice that the app seems you promising but imho there are thousands of apps which are just rolling in the sand, no meaning of their development but on the other hand lots of apps are there developed with really nice idea in mind, which created their own niche. So imho be assure that the app belongs to the category that do create its own niche. and as other comments there are appreciable too.
tpryme
A survey won't produce enough sample points to be statistically significant. You'd get more statistically reliable numbers using Google Keyword Tool. For example, if you're thinking of making a voip app for the android, GKT shows 9,900 global monthly searches for "voip android," which is a lot lower than the 3.35M that voip searches get and the 13.6M that android searches get. Both are big markets, and I can't imagine "guesswork" that would somehow arrive at 10k by combining the 2 market numbers of 3M and 13M. Google Keyword Tool would be one of the most reliable ways to give you the confidence or warning signs you need to dive in or avoid implementation.
heyrhett
How Big is Our Market? We searched on Google for the word “glove” and the words “ice cream” and obtained these results: • Glove: 14,400,000 results • Ice Cream: 32,60,0000 results How Big Is Our Market? 14,400,000 x 32,60,0000 = 46944,000000000 probable customers What If? If we sold our glove at $9.99... Profits = $4,689,705,6000,000,000,000,000.00 What if we sold our glove at $19.99... Profits = two times previous number
cmontgomeryb
But if I were to do that (with sample made up numbers):

Android - 700 users worldwide

Functionality - 500 people in the demographic

That certainly doesn't mean that there are 1200 potential users, as I don't know where the crossover between people who require the functionality and also own an Android device are. In a technically disinclined demographic, maybe only 50 of the users that require the functionality also own an Android device - and only 10 of those would be willing to pay for the (an) app.

vaksel
i use Google Keyword tool to give me a rough estimate. It's not 100% accurate since the data is a bit dated, but overall it'll give you a rough idea
willheim
It is virtually impossible to measure the size of the virtual market. The number of people joining Android on a daily basis is increasing but then along comes WP7 and that may change the rate of growth. Then you have out of those people on Android the percent who share an interest in what you are developing... but the only way to reach those people is by identifying who and where they are. In-app advertisements and forum postings have been mentioned but then even only the select few who may be interested in your subject will click/participate. Yes, you face a virtual impossibility.

In our start-up world you simply cannot predict success on the measuring the size of the market. It's impossible. Think back to 2007 and tell me: What is the size of the market for Fart apps? And it will cost $0.99? My guess? Very, very limited. Huh. Guess I missed the mark on that one. Now, think back to 2005. Tell me, what is the size of the market for people to blog in 140 characters or less? My guess, pretty small. I mean, Facebook can do that. Oops. Missed that one, too. OK, now that Twitter is HUGE what is the size of the market for people willing to pay for it? A ha! Studies show near zero.

So the size of the market willing to pay $0.99 for fart apps is far bigger than that of Twitter. Amazing, eh?

So here's what you do: Go build an MVP, identify some leading influencers who could be interested in it, beta test it out, and gather feedback. That's all you really can do.