Ask HN: How often do gold-rush opportunities like iPhone’s App Store happen?
What are the requirements for this to happen? For example, the internet created a whole new ecosystem of opportunity, but a bunch of government funding went into developing it. A bunch of work went into developing the iPhone. So is a new platform a requirement? Does anyone have any predictions for what future platforms might come into existence, and what signals are you basing these predictions on? Is there any pattern in the frequency of these kinds of game-changing platforms?
2 comments
[ 3.2 ms ] story [ 16.7 ms ] threadThe most recent one has obviously been crypto. Whatever will be next is probably bubbling somewhere on a forum or subreddit with a few people who really believe in it, but most not really taking it seriously. The Paul Graham 'looks like a toy' [1] heuristic is a good one.
The chief requirement seems to be a small, organic but very intense group of people, with a long term view, who are unflinchingly sure that it - whatever it is - will work, eventually.
This seems to be as, if not more important than what the thing actually is.
[1] http://www.paulgraham.com/organic.html