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Ask HN: Is Apple repeating the same mistakes it made 25 years ago?

8 points by fnl ↗ HN
This is a possibly interesting question; I will try to explain how I just arrived at this conclusion in a discussion with some friends. Back in the rainbow-colored Apple area we were big fans of the architecture, alongside with Amiga and Atari. However, all three of them faded away because of one simple mistake: they had either vendor-lock-in (Atari, Amiga) or made it hard to develop for the platform because of exclusively proprietary tools and compilers that were impossible to come by legally (Apple). They vanished against DOS on the long run and we (had to) moved on (to DOS :S). Then came Linux and we happily switched our development platform, yet mostly still using Windows for multimedia and/or games (except for the "core" Linux guys, but then to them this whole question should be irrelevant, anyways). Then Jobs "came back" with the glorious ideas of a FreeBSD-based OSX and moving on to Intel processors that combined the two worlds, so we switched (again). In our discussion, we at least to some degree even agreed the true reason for the recent rise of Apple is not so much in iPad or iTunes alone, but the ability to develop open software on an Intel platform that works almost as if it were Linux while having the comforts of the "closed source" world: no longer we have to dual-boot Linux for work and Windows for multimedia (the games guys probably still are Windows, but whatever), and a platform that is dead-simple to use for non-IT guys. All was fine and up until recently there was nothing seriously wrong. But now Apple has dropped support for Java (the probably most followed language) and at the same time has created the "Mac App Store" (MAS). We have already seen the reception to the "iPhone App Store" (PAS) from the open source community - e.g. from the VLC guys, so I won't comment on that any more. And, for the MAS, you even need to pay $99 to get "into" it. I have no exact idea how open source-unfriendly the MAS is vs. the PAS, but I doubt even if it seems rosy now it will not be long before there is a real difference between the PAS and MAS. So, are the Apple guys apparently about to cut one of their "life support veins" after the other, and Android, etc. will take over the mobile sector and Linux/Windows will be again the norm in the home computing sector? I at least am seriously considering moving back to Linux again, and I am seeing patterns in Apple's current policies that make me think the question I put out to you guys has at least some substance. So, please, comment!

15 comments

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bsk
Steve Jobs probably has a different view on what caused Apple downfall.
Mithrandir
There are still people who think GNU/Linux is for "techies" and if you don't know C++ and a half a dozen other languages, your computer will explode.

GNU/Linux is gaining popularity, but it will take awhile for it to be on most computers.

GDH
With the ease of learning due to the unlimited resources we have these days more and more people are labeling themselves "techies" and running Linux. I think Linux will gain some ground as more people run it with the notion that it will make them a better programmer, when the reality is that they will still work a day job at Futureshop for the next 10 years (that is if large tech stores exist in 10 years).
fnl
And, if I may add, ever since Ubuntu (not that I like it, personally, but whatever) I've seen more people using Linux than ever before. Give it another ten years and they might have something really competitive on the end-user side, especially if Microsoft and Apple keep creeping more and more digital restriction management BS into their OS's.
bigwally
From a slightly different point of view; I was always under the impression that Apple got trounced by Microsoft in the desktop PC market. People quickly realized Apple didn't have a lot of software past Adobe, plus of course you could copy software from your friends.

History is now repeating with Android/Google as they start to dominate apple with much the same situation. The Iphone is an overpriced toy for a lot of people.

You could always blame the Apple downfall on that bloke from Pepsi.

The next big fight is going to be Apple TV vs Google TV. Apple already has Disney on their side, while Google is just giving Google TV away much like Microsoft did with with DOS and Windows.

fnl
Well, I sort of tried to say that - although, my impression is that it was harder to develop for Apple than DOS because of the unavailability of developer tools for Mac OS. Although I must admit I stuck to Atari to the bitter end and directly jumped to Linux, so my impression might be wrong. However, as you say, in any case, they faded away because of insufficient software and did solve that by opening up in OSX and having XCode and other stuff directly available. So, are they doing that again with their recent policies?
hasenj
I don't know about their downfall from before, but the way I see it, Apple is focused on consumers, not developers/hackers. That is, they will always choose the consumer's experience over the hacker's convenience.

The recent move with the Mac App Store just confirmed my suspicions.

That's kinda why I want to stay away from the Mac, even though their laptops are very tempting. Damn, today I went to the apple store and saw the new Air. Very seductive.

But, I'm sticking to Linux. I don't do lots of multimedia stuff, so Linux works fine for me.

fnl
If I may ask - why is that so that you don't want to switch? The best reason IMO for following your model might be the increasing amounts of DRM we are seeing in the two big desktop alternatives. It honestly makes me think that there is no free software/open source future on the Apple, either (and I'll accept that RMS would probably mentally kill me just for thinking even that... :)).
hasenj
This was all based on my experience with the DRM in the iPhone. The iPhone is sort of a gadget, so it's ok. But my main development machine? The place where I do my real work? No way!!
DerekL
Why do you say that Macintosh tools were impossible to come by legally? Maybe Mac development was limited to certain developers in the early days, but Apple released MPW in 1986. THINK Technologies introduced Lightspeed Pascal and Lightspeed C in 1986 too. Inside Macintosh was published in 1985.

(I had to research this, because I didn't own a Mac or program for Macs until about 1995.)

fnl
Well, for us back then the only ways to lay hands on a good C compiler - except buying some extremely expensive proprietary software we could not afford (we all were under 20 and w/o regular income) - would have been via not-so-official channels (no comment...) and in the end more of a pain than it was worth it. For me at least, therefor, it was far more easier to develop on an Atari and then a Linux PC than it ever was for Apple's machines (before OSX).
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nl
The "Apple is closed, and in the 90's they tried the same thing and it failed" meme is quite a common thing to hear.

But "winning" a market rarely has a single reason. One could easily argue that Microsoft in the 90's was similar to Apple in that they went it alone, abandoning OS/2, whilst Apple tried to build alliances like Taligent (with IBM). Or perhaps that Apple's practices in controlling the AppStore are similar to Microsoft's use of market power to build the Windows monopoly.

One thing is for sure: Steve Jobs, Eric Schmidt (ex-Novell) etc all remember the 90's pretty well, and they are all spending every waking hour making sure they don't end up losing again.

History's echoes can be distracting enough to make one forget that it never repeats itself.

fnl
But there is a minute, yet important difference: the App Stores are entirely controlled by Apple, whilst Microsoft never restricted or controlled your access to their platform as a software provider. So, maybe they "dominated" because of Office et al., but they never pro-actively locked out other providers - a policy common on the iPhone, formerly on the old Mac OS, and now apparently coming "back to the Mac [App Store]". The same thing was (and, in parts, even still is) the case with hardware: it was a piece of cake to sell hardware for the Windows platform (worst case you had to write your own device driver), but particularly tricky to do so for Mac. Apple now has the lead because they were first with many neat things on OSX, the iPod, then the iPhone and now maybe the iTablet. So they were first with a clean mobile platform. But Android has caught up and Windows 7 has just downright copied the entire OSX experience and maybe even added a few features of its own. So can Apple stand its grounds with their tight policies? I say, only if they manage to constantly stay ahead of competition, just as now maybe with the tablet PC approach. But how much longer will they be capable of delivering ahead of everybody else? And if they don't stay ahead, will they open up to let independent and innovative developers to maintain the lead or will they not? And in that respect I think current signals are rather discouraging.
brudgers
The current trend of Apple shifting its marketing emphasis from innovation as what differentiates their hardware to access to content as the differentiator is, in my mind, a radical shift.

I think the MacApp store may be a sign of a more fundamental issue for Apple - they have one UI that looks and feels less cutting edge every day and doesn't scale well beyond a 5"-9" screen...and another which hasn't had significant architectural improvements for some time (and doesn't scale down to 5"-9").

Apple may not have mortgaged the farm for iOS, but it appears that they have bet a significant portion of their future on it, perhaps without fully acknowledging the scaling issues. The shift towards content and media access as what makes an Apple product "insanely great" is not a good sign for those whose concern is utility.