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I don’t really see this ending well for the Mac platform.

There’s already tons of legacy Mac software, and (as on iOS) it slowly dies with each new barrier: Intel switch, Carbon abandonment, 32-bit barrier, etc. and of course whenever an ARM version comes along. This software has not all been updated, creating unnecessary headaches for many users over time. In many environments, a single old, vital application can hamstring the entire organization to hold back on upgrading the platform and hardware.

Notarization that cannot be applied to legacy software is essentially useless. Software that people have needed for years doesn’t suddenly become “less trustworthy” just because Apple says it does. There’s actually a saying in security that, all other things being equal, the older of two implementations is more secure because it’s been in proven use for a longer period.

Old software doesn’t even necessarily build with the latest Xcode, and I have little faith that Apple’s new “notarization” tools will be back-ported to work with older project files, assuming you can even find the code for all the programs you use. This will simply be yet another reason that additional Mac software is abandoned.