Ask HN: Will the usable lifetime of computing devices continue to increase?

I have a desktop computer that was high-end 8 years ago. It's still very usable with Linux and an SSD today. I have a 6 year-old Macbook-pro that is still more than adequate. I have a 5 year-old tablet, and a 4 year-old phone. Both are good enough for modern operating systems and programs.

I have bought new devices, but out of want rather than need.

This was unthinkable for computing and electronics equipment 20 years ago, in 1999.

What will happen to devices bought in 2019, 2029 and beyond?

This is tied to the apparent slowdown in Moore's Law, but it is not quite the same question. It is tied to the proliferation of new computing devices, as consumer behaviour shifts towards using many 'computers', rather than one.

My prediction is that the number of computing devices will continue to increase, offloading our computing to more and more devices. I predict that the mean lifetime of these devices will also increase. A high-end desktop from 2020 will last until 2030, capable of running the same OS and programs for the average person. But desktop computing may only be a small part of the ecosystem in 2030.

I'm interested to hear alternative predictions.