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The negative effects of a rejection can be much more than emotional... if I asked out every person at work who I liked who I thought I had a 40%+ chance with, I', pretty sure I would get fired or at the very least become widely known as a creep.

Even outside of work, it can make friendships that aren't strong already become more awkward and fade away, or blow up a friend group. This proposed model is much too simplistic

I think it's _intended_ to be simplistic.
As much as I enjoyed studying and working around science, maths and engineering stuff, I'm always glad there's also the playground of relationships to experience, share and learn from our emotions and feelings.

This article seems to rely on some unwritten assumptions. But human psychology is really complex, you can't just assume things.

Like there's some predetermined X% chance your crush also likes you and you just have to ask to know? But when do you ask? And how? Seems we have some control over that and lots of people learned that saying the right thing at the right time indeed matters. A lot.

It's common sense there's (usually) nothing to lose to ask someone about a possible reciprocity of feelings. But we can be shy, or afraid by the change you could bring in your life, etc. and this is not some rational risk-averse mathematical behavior, just human psychology, always surprising and full of unexpected things ;)

The argument misses a major factor: the opportunity cost of spending a chunk of your life dating someone who isn't right for you.

Given that the article is written from the perspective of the asker and seems not to notice the potential downside of dating the wrong person, I wonder if the writer is male. I could be wrong, but I suspect it is the more likely possibility.

The article seems interesting but misses to take into account the uncertain nature of human behaviour. There can't be something like "there's a 40% chance s/he likes me" and similar thing. However, after reading I am forced to do a thought experiment of Monty Hall problem in the context of love. What do you think the outcomes becomes if we are to simulate the "Monty Hall for Love" problem? Just a curious mind here!