Hi there,
My friend Nathan and I recently launched Predibly.com: a social platform to publicly share your predictions of the future and have interesting conversations about them.
Nathan had the idea last week, I build the MVP and we'd love to know your thoughts!
I like it! Love that you can sort by time of prediction or by time of post/popularity. Sort by "controversial" could be nice.
As soon as you have more than a dozen you will need tags or category. Tech, science, politics, sports... will cater to vastly different people and foster different discussions.
I don't like the fact that Twitter is required to sign up.
Glad you like the idea! Categories are on our list of features to implement. We're thinking about hashtags like Twitter does.
Yeah, Signup with Twitter was mostly to accelerate the development time but an email signup will be introduced in the future as we're aware that some people prefer this way.
There's Augur https://www.augur.net/ that's a decentralized protocol for predictions. You can bet on predictions or use the prediction and outcome data in your decisions.
A relevant episode of EconTalk[1]. If I remember correctly, Philip Tetlock is running a continuous betting project to try to determine what characterize good forecasters.
Nobody suggest having a "prediction reputation" that keeps track of the quality of people's predictions? Like, after the even should have taken place, open it up for up/down votes or such?
Interesting, but there is no legal disclaimer, about page, corporation, cookie usage information, etc
Does that mean you don't log in anyway any information about visitor, and that you share all gathered information by contributors with the public ? For example, where can I download the whole database of prediction, with votes, comments and history ?
If I can't, I'm assuming this is not fully public and you potentially use my data as a visitor and/or contributor to make money, and you therefore need a legal entity to represent the website.
The problem with this is that predictions should, ideally, be clearly specified, offer a percentage estimate (0-100% likelihood), and have some reliable method of validating the outcome.
This website, on the other hand, seems to encourage none of these epistemic virtues. It's people making more or less precise verbal predictions on twitter and then assessing themselves.
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[ 2.0 ms ] story [ 50.8 ms ] thread> If the User is a U.S. Person, User represents that user is an accredited investor
https://hunches.app/terms-of-service
As soon as you have more than a dozen you will need tags or category. Tech, science, politics, sports... will cater to vastly different people and foster different discussions.
I don't like the fact that Twitter is required to sign up.
This would likely increase prediction quality/accuracy.
http://longbets.org/
[1]:https://www.econtalk.org/philip-tetlock-on-superforecasting/...
I would like a filter for controversial, having people add: The earth will still exist in 2020, is not so interesting.
I normally don't like leaderboards, but in this case, it would be nice if and only if it was weighted by how controversial the prediction is.
Does that mean you don't log in anyway any information about visitor, and that you share all gathered information by contributors with the public ? For example, where can I download the whole database of prediction, with votes, comments and history ?
If I can't, I'm assuming this is not fully public and you potentially use my data as a visitor and/or contributor to make money, and you therefore need a legal entity to represent the website.
He is well within his right to make the website exactly how it is, and you are well within your rights not to visit it.
The Good Judgement Project does all these things: https://www.gjopen.com/
This website, on the other hand, seems to encourage none of these epistemic virtues. It's people making more or less precise verbal predictions on twitter and then assessing themselves.
Honestly, not as nice as what was shared from a UI perspective. However, the user experience on predictionbook.com appears better.
https://predictionbook.com/
http://longbets.org/601/
Jeremy Keith bet that “The original URL for this prediction (www.longbets.org/601) will no longer be available in eleven years.”
He looks set to lose, which is great news for him, honestly.