China and India each have about three times the population of the United States. While I don't agree with the direction the country has been on since 2000, I think the problems facing the US are not so terrible as to be unavoidable.
Being the top superpower economically, militarily, and governmentally with three hundred million people rather than one billion long-term is not realistic. Eventually you are going to be outproduced in most areas.
Unless we are about to go over the edge now into Great Depression II I think America will be fine. Having China, India, US and the EU as essentially four superpowers will be a political situation like we have never seen before.
You sound just like Doc in Back to the Future (he was talking about Japan however).
This little tidbit points to the problem.
just as America's current supply of brilliant scientists and engineers retires, without adequate replacement by an ill-educated younger generation.
Without the collage educated middle class to fill startups and R&D firms/departments what is the US going to build it's continued technological innovation on?
Education is a long term investment in the future and one that the US has being failing making for some time now.
They are letting in fewer people? Because the people applying are, "getting dumber and dumber," while they are attempting to maintain the same level of standards? Or are they just cutting the number of students that they admit? Or are you talking about admissions of US students vs Foreign students?
> Education is a long term investment in the future and one that the US has being failing making for some time now.
The treatment of foreign students is particularly perplexing. We come here, spend 4+ years learning at the best colleges, honing our craft, becoming skilled, and learning from the experts.
What happens when we graduate? We face a supremely unfriendly immigration scenario where we have to essentially find a job or be deported. Even when we find a job, we're totally at the mercy of our employer to remain in the US.
I know quite a few people who just left the country because of these immigration related issues... and I think it's america's loss because these people have gone on to launch startups/do research abroad.
I don't know if it's just fears about offshoring or what but anyone who has already been allowed to come and study in the country should have an opportunity to stay.
Running a school as a business and then sending "clients" away after graduation makes sense for the school, but not for the idea of education.
Like people who "buy American" and get a Ford made in Mexico rather than a Honda made in America, it isn't "us" and "them." If a foreign student gets hired here, has a family, and contributes to the American economy, they've become American and those statistics about degree shortages look a lot better.
It's specially ridiculous when you consider the fact that as a grad student you are actually PAID to study (granted, it's not a huge amount, but the point remains). So essentially, I come here, get paid to study, learn from the best, and go back home where I can put my skills to use for people other than Americans.
There's a lot of anti-immigration sentiment. The logic (or anti-logic if you will) plays out something like this:
* I don't like immigrants because they take jobs from hard-working Americans. [ Note that this doesn't differentiate between 'off-shoring' and 'immigration' ]
* Foreigners in our schools are taking away spots that could be filled by Americans.
* If we allow foreigners to study here, and then make it easy for them to stay, then it's a double-whammy. They are "taking education away from Americans," and then staying here to "take jobs away from Americans" too.
There is also a smattering of, "oh noes, the person from country X will only be loyal to country X and will therefore be a spy in our midst!"
Music, movies, microcode, and high-speed pizza delivery. That's all America should do. The whole military empire thing has always been the opiate of the elite.
My favorite was when he just starts making up actual scenarios. This paragraph is classic...
"It’s mid-summer 2014 and a drawn-down U.S. garrison in embattled Kandahar in southern Afghanistan is suddenly, unexpectedly overrun by Taliban guerrillas, while U.S. aircraft are grounded by a blinding sandstorm. Heavy loses are taken and in retaliation, an embarrassed American war commander looses B-1 bombers and F-16 fighters to demolish whole neighborhoods of the city that are believed to be under Taliban control, while AC-130U "Spooky" gunships rake the rubble with devastating cannon fire."
When you're using fictional accounts that you made up as proof of your concept it's probably a sign you need to find some more supporting research before you publish
After having lived the last 4 or so years overseas in a developing country, here's why I'm not as concerned about America as alarmist pundits:
1) I'm not trying to be nationalistic here, but we have one of if not THE most entrepreneurial, hard working, critical thinking work forces in the world. That is an intangible but one I believe will keep the US competitive long in the future. It generally takes generations for this to change (both in countries that lack it and in countries that have it.)
2) Economics isn't a zero sum game. Just because China or India overtakes the US as the world's leading economy doesn't mean that the US is worse off for it. Value can be added without being taken away. If China becomes the world's largest economy and at the same time, the US's per capita GDP doubles from where it is today, is the US really any worse off?
The point the article was making but didn't flesh out is that the dollar's status as a reserve currency has HUGE benefits for the US public. If that status disappears (due to the rise of other countries), the standard of living in the US will decrease.
I can't speak for anyone else but my dismissive attitude is based on the fact that he seems to have done no more than 15 minutes worth of research for this article and what research he has done is badly attributed. To give an example of this he quotes the number of Patents filed by the U.S., Japan and China. But anyone whose looked at a random batch of patents can tell you a lot of them ill conceived tripe (ever watch cable TV between 1am and 5am?). Which means it proves very little without looking at the content of the patents (which he clearly didn't do)
So even if he's right the piece is so badly done that it doesn't deserve a lot of respect.
I grew up in india and live in US for the past 10 years and visit india often. I am amused by all this doom doctors... Trust me, US is the best country in the world and has a lot of long term advantages (like natural resources, relatively strong capitalistic system, stable political system, great universities, a big entrepreneurial population, open to immigration etc etc). There are a lot of problems in china and india which media don't talk about.
I agree US has a lot of short term issues like deficit etc. But its all manageable. If i go by the deficit commissions report just reforming the tax system and increasing the retirement age by 2 years will wipe out the deficit.
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[ 5.3 ms ] story [ 67.7 ms ] threadBeing the top superpower economically, militarily, and governmentally with three hundred million people rather than one billion long-term is not realistic. Eventually you are going to be outproduced in most areas.
Unless we are about to go over the edge now into Great Depression II I think America will be fine. Having China, India, US and the EU as essentially four superpowers will be a political situation like we have never seen before.
This little tidbit points to the problem.
just as America's current supply of brilliant scientists and engineers retires, without adequate replacement by an ill-educated younger generation.
Without the collage educated middle class to fill startups and R&D firms/departments what is the US going to build it's continued technological innovation on?
Education is a long term investment in the future and one that the US has being failing making for some time now.
EDIT: Not all, of course, but let's put things into perspective.
The treatment of foreign students is particularly perplexing. We come here, spend 4+ years learning at the best colleges, honing our craft, becoming skilled, and learning from the experts.
What happens when we graduate? We face a supremely unfriendly immigration scenario where we have to essentially find a job or be deported. Even when we find a job, we're totally at the mercy of our employer to remain in the US.
I know quite a few people who just left the country because of these immigration related issues... and I think it's america's loss because these people have gone on to launch startups/do research abroad.
Running a school as a business and then sending "clients" away after graduation makes sense for the school, but not for the idea of education.
Like people who "buy American" and get a Ford made in Mexico rather than a Honda made in America, it isn't "us" and "them." If a foreign student gets hired here, has a family, and contributes to the American economy, they've become American and those statistics about degree shortages look a lot better.
* I don't like immigrants because they take jobs from hard-working Americans. [ Note that this doesn't differentiate between 'off-shoring' and 'immigration' ]
* Foreigners in our schools are taking away spots that could be filled by Americans.
* If we allow foreigners to study here, and then make it easy for them to stay, then it's a double-whammy. They are "taking education away from Americans," and then staying here to "take jobs away from Americans" too.
There is also a smattering of, "oh noes, the person from country X will only be loyal to country X and will therefore be a spy in our midst!"
Note: I don't hold the above beliefs.
"It’s mid-summer 2014 and a drawn-down U.S. garrison in embattled Kandahar in southern Afghanistan is suddenly, unexpectedly overrun by Taliban guerrillas, while U.S. aircraft are grounded by a blinding sandstorm. Heavy loses are taken and in retaliation, an embarrassed American war commander looses B-1 bombers and F-16 fighters to demolish whole neighborhoods of the city that are believed to be under Taliban control, while AC-130U "Spooky" gunships rake the rubble with devastating cannon fire."
When you're using fictional accounts that you made up as proof of your concept it's probably a sign you need to find some more supporting research before you publish
1) I'm not trying to be nationalistic here, but we have one of if not THE most entrepreneurial, hard working, critical thinking work forces in the world. That is an intangible but one I believe will keep the US competitive long in the future. It generally takes generations for this to change (both in countries that lack it and in countries that have it.)
2) Economics isn't a zero sum game. Just because China or India overtakes the US as the world's leading economy doesn't mean that the US is worse off for it. Value can be added without being taken away. If China becomes the world's largest economy and at the same time, the US's per capita GDP doubles from where it is today, is the US really any worse off?
Right now, the dollar is still the least worst currency.
Oil can't.
1. Foreign wars that are a drag on resources
2. Internal entitlements (SS, medicare) that are unsustainable and also a growing drag on resources
3. A political culture that seems incapable of meeting the long-term needs of the nation
4. Increasingly better global competitors
Will these problems just go away once we climb out of the recession?
So even if he's right the piece is so badly done that it doesn't deserve a lot of respect.
I agree US has a lot of short term issues like deficit etc. But its all manageable. If i go by the deficit commissions report just reforming the tax system and increasing the retirement age by 2 years will wipe out the deficit.