the lack of china is pretty interesting. russia is practically non-existent too, but it's much larger (especially with this map projection) with a much smaller population.
Yes, I made that post before I saw what smokinn said about QQ. (And what others said about other Chinese social networking companies, and American companies in China, in general.)
EDIT: To explain and not be snarky, QQ is an IM/portal/social network/web mail/social game platform that is actually larger than Facebook. (Over 600 million active last I checked.) They completely dominate every aspect of Chinese web software.
There would be many more using Facebook if it wasn't blocked. I'm not sure how it's doing now but I remember lots of students last year were joining xiaonei which is just a facebook duplicate for Chinese students only.
IMO many of these sites are blocked in China so Chinese companies can dominate the domestic market rather than for political reasons.
China already has 2 indigenous Facebooks, Kaixin (targeted towards professional workers) and Renren (targeted towards college students). It also has QQ, which is more like MSN Messenger + MySpace + gaming.
Filtered or not, US web companies don't tend to do well in China. Amazon and eBay aren't filtered, for example, but they both completely flopped here. A lot of it has to do with US tech companies not understanding how (or being unwilling) to do business like Chinese.
Amazon and ebay need a lot more infrastructure than youtube/google/twitter and have therefore never really put in a big effort on China. I'm sure they aren't very successful in most developing countries. Those other ones would be competitive like they are everywhere else in the world if they had a chance.
Google was the one that really invested in China and though not in the same league as Baidu yet, it was definitely moving up in market share until the government turned hostile on them. They definitely "understood" how to do business in China: they had a big Chinese staff, they even had a music search like Baidu which surprised me because it seems like something RIAA would go nuts at, and they made their own very good pinyin input system.
I'm guessing if Amazon or ebay got successful and competitive with their players, China would suddenly notice some pro-Tibet book on there and use it as an excuse to give them the boot.
eBay does not actually need a lot of infrastructure in a new market (relatively)- int's all server based. Amazon is a another story, with their inventory approach requiring critical mass of warehousing close to market.
eBay are famous down here in New Zealand (at least with those that care) for believing that serving a dial-up market with heavy picture laden HTML from 200-300ms away and no local presence was going to work. A local start-up (Trade Me) destroyed eBay pretty quickly and has gone on to post better per person numbers than (I believe) any eBay affiliate.
Same story in China. I say there are/were too many MBAs in eBay and not enough (especially local) tech-heads.
Meanwhile Skype is doing great things post eBay ownership.
L
an ex Trade Me MBA. The only one at the time, and part time at that.
also, brazil is still holding out for the most part. i wonder what the penetration rate of a social network needs to be in order for users to not jump ship to facebook?
I wouldn't say Brazil is holding out, it's just that population is heavily concentrated on the southern coast. The northern parts of the country have a smaller, poorer population. It would probably be brighter if Orkut didn't exist, but the Amazon basin would still be completely dark.
How can you tell that it definitely was not done in R? He says
> As a sanity check, I plotted points at some of the latitude and longitude coordinates. To my relief, what I saw was roughly an outline of the world.
His plot doesn't "know" about the world - he is just drawing curves between points in a plane (lat. and long.). I haven't used R, but I am sure that would be possible.
Because I use R quite often, and R just doesn't produce graphs that look like that :).
But yes, it's probably possible to draw an uglier version of the visualization. (I know you can draw the individual points on the plane, so drawing lines between points is probably available as well, though I'm not so sure about the great circles part.)
It's really interesting that you can clearly see the differences between West Germany from East Germany, even 20 years after the reunification. Also the borders of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, 80 years after the end of the World War I.
He is a true friend to all those Koreans. But the map only shows those who have computers. AND access to internet. Which would be his family, government and more or less that's it. The rest would love to show their friendship and devotion to Kim but can't - lack of computers is killing them...
> It's really interesting that you can clearly see the differences between West Germany from East Germany, even 20 years after the reunification.
That might also be an artefact of young people leaving East Germany for West Germany and Berlin. The facebook population density in East Germany seems to be quite low by that picture.
I might be mistaken, but I believe he took the destinations from the current city profile field. I'm sure there aren't that many Facebook users in North Korea.
The US / Canadian border in the West is interesting. It seems between west of the great lakes and east of Seattle there isn't much connection across the border.
On the other hand, if you were to think of the kind of people in each country who wouldn't have any friends at all in the other country, wouldn't they probably live around there?
It is a lot easier to move around and work on one side of the border or the other, which leads to people naturally not meeting people on the other side.
In the east there are so many more people and there is so much cross border traffic due to trade (particularly from the auto industry) that a lot more cross border connections exist.
I've been to the Eastern part of the border: Stanstead, Quebec/Vermont. Over there, some of the buildings are right on the border. One of the guys I worked with lived in apartments which had their parking lot technically in the US.
I really wanted to look at the map in the context of where actual countries were so I threw together a Google Maps overlay. I couldn't believe how accurately the connections followed country lines, it was amazing!
If you're interested: Russia is missing because we've got one very similar social network[1][2] that's got arguably more features and arrived to the market a year or so earlier than facebook got its russian localization.
I’m pretty sure that this is a development that happened all over the World. Germany had its own Facebook clone [1] early on and it absolutely dominated before Facebook entered the German market [2]. That’s now no more the case.
To quote StudiVZ CEO Riedl: “There is now no more direct battle against the global player Facebook.” [3]
It’s interesting to see that the Facebook clone worked in Russia but didn’t in other places.
That's an interesting case. I might make some wild guesses based on what I see:
1. vk ports features from fb 3 to 6 months after they appear (share-widget, like-widget, connect-widget, possible friends)
2. vk's got a comprehensive search engine with lots of filters by age, city, gender, current status (married, single, in active search etc.). Lots of people I know use vk for dating. I might be missing something, but I didn't find such a thing for facebook.
3. vk's got native music and video upload. By native I mean that you don't use any third party application/service to do this. Everything's hosted on vk's servers. That's the reason copyright owners sued vk several times (RIAA even blacklisted the guys). However, they [copyright holders] lost in all the court cases.
4. VK offers cheap contextual ads. While not exactly a killer feature, it is very nifty for business, -- they only charge per-click and if you get the targeting and ad text right, you'll get more visitors than you need.
5. Another random guess is that it's easier for a German than for a Russian to migrate to English service.
5. Another random guess is that it's easier for a German than for a Russian to migrate to English service.
In principle, Facebook is localised. I could imagine that few apps are translated to German though, and even fewer to Russian, except those built by native developers; (I don't use any apps, so I don't know) that native developer pool ought to be the same as the one building VK (or VZ) apps. Assuming Facebook does a decent job of filtering localised apps, I can't imagine this to be a massive issue for users.
I can only assume the media upload is what keeps people coming back.
All of the other reasons you mention seem to be reasons why businesses would prefer VK over Facebook, but surely it's the users that are the key?
See, that’s what I would have thought about StudiVZ and yet Facebook could spread in Germany like a wildfire. StudiVZ still has millions of users but Facebook has those same users, too. (This is only anecdotal evidence but Facebook also seems like the busier place to me, activity has transitioned from StudiVZ to Facebook.)
This tells me that even if a social network seems to have a particular market cornered, a competitor still has a chance. (Which, I think, is quite nice to know.) Network effects are obviously important and have to be considered by anyone who wants to build a social network but I think there are certain properties of social networks that dampen network effects: Signing up is easy and free, for one, and rebuilding the social graph, while some work, is far from tedious. You only have to add some friends and recommendations get you the rest of the way.
I wonder if Seznam really is more popular than Google in ČR. Do you have any data to support this? Also I wonder what the deal is with Jyxo.cz. How much behind Seznam is it nowadays? Wasn't it technically superior?
The most important factor is that number 3: music and video uploads. You just didn't present it as it is. Facebook also has an option to upload video. But the real difference is that VK became practically the alternative for torrents: all the movies and all the music is there. On their servers. Free to search, watch and enjoy. Facebook doesn't have and will never have it.
So if you have all your friend on VK AND you have all the entertainment stuff there - why switch?
Unless Facebook comes with some interesting strategies to pull the users, the status quo will remain as is. And from what I hear and see, FB is putting a significant effort into this. It'll be interesting to watch in the nearest 1-2 years.
Well, StudiVZ just screwed up with some good money in the back.
They had downtimes and they developed no new features. StudiVZ is too basic to be competitive. Now they have apps and stuff liek that, but now it's too late.
I always wondered what they did with their money, because the really developed very very slow. And had major problems with downtimes for months.
I guess that this is not the case with vk.com and they may as well survive.
> we've got one very similar social network that's got arguably more features and arrived to the market a year or so earlier than facebook got its russian localization.
Except that it's an incomplete relatively ugly clone of Facebook, which is why quite a few people are jumping ship to Facebook. It does have its niceties in the form of music uploads, but that's more of a quirk of the general state of regard for copyright laws in the country.
Surprisingly, I found vk's interface much more appealing and intuitive than fb's. Besides, I can't find a single reason to migrate to facebook and so do most people I know, and as the map shows, most people in Russia.
I think Zuckerberg makes it very clear that is not about the platform but about where most of your friends are. Which is why it would be very difficult to displace people from facebook.
Others have mentioned the media uploads before, that's definitely the killer feature.
The other great thing is the lack of censorship. Vkontakte doesn't censor posts and doesn't have Facebook's policy of selectively banning links to outside websites.
You can't post a picture of a titty on your FB wall without the Facebook Nazis coming down with threats on you. Vkontakte doesn't ban adult content or adult-related groups.
The two things they do actively fight against are spammers and pedophiles.
About respecting copyright law, Facebook does nothing about people posting stolen photographs. It's just more socially acceptable to pirate those.
The other thing about Vkontakte is it's very popular with CIS diaspora and exchange student communities abroad. Lots of people keep accounts in both Facebook and Vkontakte, but the latter gets used more for things like organizing social outings and events.
this might not represent "real human relationships".. people playing games like mafia wars (45 million users) keep adding hundreds of other players as friends..
All that dark may be attributed to numerous things as alluded to already: lack of development, lack of human settlement, poverty, simply not on fb
The border region between the Canadian prairie provinces and the American plains may be because the cities aren't smack against the border as in BC/WASH. or Ontario/NY etc.
The few dots in NK could be those few expats or SK/foreign tourists, or NK operatives logging in. NK does have a twitter account.
Anyway, the map is stunning and i think its a great visual of the inequalities, especially between Africa and the global North. It might also highlight the irrelevance of fb in regions where community (not the same as digitized "communication") is more necessary, strong and relevant to the life and survival mechanisms therein than costly technologies elsewhere.
What I want to know is, were the 10MM pairs all people who make their friendship data public? For people in urban areas, this is sufficiently anonymous. But for those faint dots in the middle of nowhere, is it?
I think very carefully before I reveal any information publicly about my users. Sometimes seemingly aggregate information isn't.
It's both effects. If we had an Orkut map it would be like this but with the brightness much amplified. The coast and the South would be as bright as (say) Mexico.
Were it possible to gather the data, it'd be interesting to see a breakdown of how the connections were made. I'm curious whether more were a result of travel/temporary visits or relocation/permanent moves.
That "giant bright line" tracks along the coastline of the Pacific Ocean/Gulf of California. Why is it funny? There is a major highway there, and many populous cities along the shore. As you go inland a ways there is a giant desert and then a giant mountain range – it seems reasonable that such areas are thus less populated. Many parts of that map have "giant bright lines" along coastlines (for example, Spain, Australia, northwest Africa).
Its interesting to see many connections within India. Also India and countries in Western Asia seem more connected than India and US (which is what I was expecting assuming the FB population in India)
>Its interesting to see many connections within India.
The map is quite predictable to some extent too. Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata are clearly visible, and I think I see Hyderabad, Bangalore and Chennai as well, albeit as less brighter dots. Bangalore not being a bright dot is curious in itself - is it that people here are more networked with other cities and countries rather than within the city?
>Also India and countries in Western Asia seem more connected than India and US (which is what I was expecting assuming the FB population in India)
How do you see something like that? I found it pretty difficult to keep track of the lines.
If that were true, it would be pretty interesting indeed.
Really shows how entrenched the established players are in the emerging markets. Russia has VK (VKontakte), China has QQ (and supposedly blocks FB too), Brazil has Orkut. Makes me kind of admire Facebook for being able to take so much market share in Western Europe, despite home-grown alternatives there.
123 comments
[ 2.6 ms ] story [ 183 ms ] threadI wonder if Chinese Internet users for some reason think they'd be caught evading the filter if they put their actual city in their profile?
Or maybe his sampling method was just abysmal? ;)
EDIT: To explain and not be snarky, QQ is an IM/portal/social network/web mail/social game platform that is actually larger than Facebook. (Over 600 million active last I checked.) They completely dominate every aspect of Chinese web software.
IMO many of these sites are blocked in China so Chinese companies can dominate the domestic market rather than for political reasons.
Facebook would be on this list if it weren't blocked in China: http://venturebeat.com/2010/04/07/china%E2%80%99s-top-4-soci...
Filtered or not, US web companies don't tend to do well in China. Amazon and eBay aren't filtered, for example, but they both completely flopped here. A lot of it has to do with US tech companies not understanding how (or being unwilling) to do business like Chinese.
Google was the one that really invested in China and though not in the same league as Baidu yet, it was definitely moving up in market share until the government turned hostile on them. They definitely "understood" how to do business in China: they had a big Chinese staff, they even had a music search like Baidu which surprised me because it seems like something RIAA would go nuts at, and they made their own very good pinyin input system.
I'm guessing if Amazon or ebay got successful and competitive with their players, China would suddenly notice some pro-Tibet book on there and use it as an excuse to give them the boot.
eBay are famous down here in New Zealand (at least with those that care) for believing that serving a dial-up market with heavy picture laden HTML from 200-300ms away and no local presence was going to work. A local start-up (Trade Me) destroyed eBay pretty quickly and has gone on to post better per person numbers than (I believe) any eBay affiliate. Same story in China. I say there are/were too many MBAs in eBay and not enough (especially local) tech-heads.
Meanwhile Skype is doing great things post eBay ownership.
L an ex Trade Me MBA. The only one at the time, and part time at that.
> As a sanity check, I plotted points at some of the latitude and longitude coordinates. To my relief, what I saw was roughly an outline of the world.
His plot doesn't "know" about the world - he is just drawing curves between points in a plane (lat. and long.). I haven't used R, but I am sure that would be possible.
But yes, it's probably possible to draw an uglier version of the visualization. (I know you can draw the individual points on the plane, so drawing lines between points is probably available as well, though I'm not so sure about the great circles part.)
Notice the conspicuous absence of China, Russia and Brazil.
I also wonder who those users in North Korea are.
That might also be an artefact of young people leaving East Germany for West Germany and Berlin. The facebook population density in East Germany seems to be quite low by that picture.
The US / Canadian border in the West is interesting. It seems between west of the great lakes and east of Seattle there isn't much connection across the border.
It is a lot easier to move around and work on one side of the border or the other, which leads to people naturally not meeting people on the other side.
In the east there are so many more people and there is so much cross border traffic due to trade (particularly from the auto industry) that a lot more cross border connections exist.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanstead,_Quebec#Geography
Check out the library:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haskell_Free_Library_and_Opera_...
http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,948520,00.html
As for the west coast, let's not forget about the geographical anomaly known as "Point Roberts":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_Roberts#Geography
Alberta bumps up to ~3.7 million, and the connections start to increase.
I really wanted to look at the map in the context of where actual countries were so I threw together a Google Maps overlay. I couldn't believe how accurately the connections followed country lines, it was amazing!
[1] http://vk.com
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vkontakte
To quote StudiVZ CEO Riedl: “There is now no more direct battle against the global player Facebook.” [3]
It’s interesting to see that the Facebook clone worked in Russia but didn’t in other places.
[1] StudiVZ: http://www.studivz.net/
[2] StudiVZ was founded in November 2005 (a whole year earlier than Vkontakte), Facebook was localized in early 2008
[3] A week ago, in an interview (German): http://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/it-medien/studivz-ch...
1. vk ports features from fb 3 to 6 months after they appear (share-widget, like-widget, connect-widget, possible friends)
2. vk's got a comprehensive search engine with lots of filters by age, city, gender, current status (married, single, in active search etc.). Lots of people I know use vk for dating. I might be missing something, but I didn't find such a thing for facebook.
3. vk's got native music and video upload. By native I mean that you don't use any third party application/service to do this. Everything's hosted on vk's servers. That's the reason copyright owners sued vk several times (RIAA even blacklisted the guys). However, they [copyright holders] lost in all the court cases.
4. VK offers cheap contextual ads. While not exactly a killer feature, it is very nifty for business, -- they only charge per-click and if you get the targeting and ad text right, you'll get more visitors than you need.
5. Another random guess is that it's easier for a German than for a Russian to migrate to English service.
In principle, Facebook is localised. I could imagine that few apps are translated to German though, and even fewer to Russian, except those built by native developers; (I don't use any apps, so I don't know) that native developer pool ought to be the same as the one building VK (or VZ) apps. Assuming Facebook does a decent job of filtering localised apps, I can't imagine this to be a massive issue for users.
I can only assume the media upload is what keeps people coming back.
All of the other reasons you mention seem to be reasons why businesses would prefer VK over Facebook, but surely it's the users that are the key?
People keep coming back because that's where their friends are.
This tells me that even if a social network seems to have a particular market cornered, a competitor still has a chance. (Which, I think, is quite nice to know.) Network effects are obviously important and have to be considered by anyone who wants to build a social network but I think there are certain properties of social networks that dampen network effects: Signing up is easy and free, for one, and rebuilding the social graph, while some work, is far from tedious. You only have to add some friends and recommendations get you the rest of the way.
So if you have all your friend on VK AND you have all the entertainment stuff there - why switch? Unless Facebook comes with some interesting strategies to pull the users, the status quo will remain as is. And from what I hear and see, FB is putting a significant effort into this. It'll be interesting to watch in the nearest 1-2 years.
I guess that this is not the case with vk.com and they may as well survive.
Except that it's an incomplete relatively ugly clone of Facebook, which is why quite a few people are jumping ship to Facebook. It does have its niceties in the form of music uploads, but that's more of a quirk of the general state of regard for copyright laws in the country.
Give it another year or two.
The other great thing is the lack of censorship. Vkontakte doesn't censor posts and doesn't have Facebook's policy of selectively banning links to outside websites.
You can't post a picture of a titty on your FB wall without the Facebook Nazis coming down with threats on you. Vkontakte doesn't ban adult content or adult-related groups.
The two things they do actively fight against are spammers and pedophiles.
About respecting copyright law, Facebook does nothing about people posting stolen photographs. It's just more socially acceptable to pirate those.
The other thing about Vkontakte is it's very popular with CIS diaspora and exchange student communities abroad. Lots of people keep accounts in both Facebook and Vkontakte, but the latter gets used more for things like organizing social outings and events.
The border region between the Canadian prairie provinces and the American plains may be because the cities aren't smack against the border as in BC/WASH. or Ontario/NY etc.
The few dots in NK could be those few expats or SK/foreign tourists, or NK operatives logging in. NK does have a twitter account.
Anyway, the map is stunning and i think its a great visual of the inequalities, especially between Africa and the global North. It might also highlight the irrelevance of fb in regions where community (not the same as digitized "communication") is more necessary, strong and relevant to the life and survival mechanisms therein than costly technologies elsewhere.
It's not based on IP, but based on self-stated resident city.
I think very carefully before I reveal any information publicly about my users. Sometimes seemingly aggregate information isn't.
edit. I love this map. China and Russia are black holes.
The map is quite predictable to some extent too. Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata are clearly visible, and I think I see Hyderabad, Bangalore and Chennai as well, albeit as less brighter dots. Bangalore not being a bright dot is curious in itself - is it that people here are more networked with other cities and countries rather than within the city?
>Also India and countries in Western Asia seem more connected than India and US (which is what I was expecting assuming the FB population in India)
How do you see something like that? I found it pretty difficult to keep track of the lines. If that were true, it would be pretty interesting indeed.
btw, i wonder who you are....as you are also a Sundar