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Poll: Will keyboards still be around in 20 years?

20 points by roadnottaken ↗ HN
A discussion about the 'end of the PC era' prompted the following question:

Do you think QWERTY keyboards will still be ubiquitous in the year 2031?

41 comments

[ 3.4 ms ] story [ 86.6 ms ] thread
theschwa
I thought the original question was whether physical keyboards would still exist.
silentbicycle
You're asking several questions at the same time here -- keyboards vs. other input devices (voice? gestures? telepathy), QWERTY keyboards vs Dvorak, physical keyboards verses on-screen, etc. Can you clarify the poll, or is it too late?
bmj
Polling QWERTY v Dvorak is splitting hairs. If I asked each of the people in my (reasonably sized) office what a Dvorak keyboard was, I reckon less than 10% would know what I was talking about.

That said, yes, the question could have been simply asked "will the keyboard be the primary input device in 20 years?"

showerst
I think it depends a bit on what you mean by 'ubiquitous'.

Eventually voice will probably supplant the keyboard for many written communications, and gestures for navigation (which is more about replacing the mouse anyway), but voice is actually not that great for expressing certain types of content.

Programming code comes to mind immediately. I'd much rather type

IF (($i === 'foo') && ($z === ($t + 2)))

than try to speak it with parenthesis (assuming we still program that way in 20 years).

On the other hand, maybe one of these brainwave readers will have a breakthrough and I'll just be able to think it =).

doyoulikeworms
Voicing code may be a more pleasant than at first glance. You could describe the if statement in your comment to somebody sitting next to you, and he'd understand it (with a little work).

A future voice-IDE might be even better at it, since it has total contextual knowledge (your source). Assuming, of course, that the traditional hurdles of voice-recognition are dealt with properly.

ori_b
The only way that I see keyboards being replaced is if we figure out a direct brain interface that lets us bypass mechanical input at all, and simply "think" text into the machine.

Otherwise, there's simply no faster and more precise method of text input at the moment, and nothing that I've even seen hinted at in the research labs.

snippyhollow
Having a direct brain interface working implies both understanding of the speech-related part of the brain as well as a big advance in artificial intelligence to deal with the noisy signal. (Perfectly dealing with the brain signals is at least as hard as perfect NLP / prefect machine translation.)
ori_b
Agreed. I don't think it's going to be happening in the next 20 years, at least not well enough to replace the keyboard. However, it's the only alternative I can imagine that would be a real improvement over keyboard input.

Edit: Note, I can imagine the need for direct text input being reduced over the next 20 years thanks to UI changes ("Select your house on this map" replacing "Type your address in this box", for example), but I don't think that the keyboard will go away as the main tool for doing it when it is needed.

showerst
I'll (attempt to) draw a counter to that: A machine need not understand out brains 'native' language processing, just a trained 'output' version.

There is already a crude toy out there that will 'read your mind' and raise or lower a ball based on a signal you send it, you just train it to a binary state. I've heard it described as mellowing out vs concentrating hard.

There's no reason in principle that a reader with fine enough discrimination couldn't be trained to recognize a few hundred states, and you couldn't be trained to 'think' a few hundred things, where the reader would recognize and translate the pattern into a number, letter, or symbol. I'm no neurologist so I have no idea how these things actually work, but it seems easier in theory than understanding the whole of brain and language.

bryanlarsen
Yes, but as been amply demonstrated by the demise of the IBM buckling spring keyboard, we don't need the "best" method, just a "good enough" method.

The other question is: how common will generation of long form text be? Is Twitter the future? I hope not, but many appear to think it is. Many keyboard alternatives are good enough, even today, for Twitter.

jokermatt999
Kids might only use the internet for FaceTwitterTube, but I'll bet they'll still probably have to type essays and reports.
bryanlarsen
And kids will be the first to abandon keyboards if there are viable alternatives. There's a learning curve to QWERTY, too. There are people that are faster using T9 than using a keyboard, just due to the practice effect. And remember, 500 words is a common essay length in school. That isn't short form text, but it's not particularly long form, either.
wladimir
There are people that are faster using T9 than using a keyboard. But I'm pretty sure that the world's fastest keyboard typist is much faster than the world's fastest T9 typer. (because you can 'pre-plan' more keys with a keyboard, using 10 fingers) (I haven't done research on this though, so feel free to prove me wrong)
jseliger
Yes, but as been amply demonstrated by the demise of the IBM buckling spring keyboard, we don't need the "best" method, just a "good enough" method.

One interesting thing to me is that, even though most people don't use Model Ms anymore, there's still a robust niche that does, or that seeks out weird and alternate keyboards. I write a blog that's chiefly about books, but by far the most visited post of all time is this review: http://jseliger.com/2008/05/07/product-review-unicomp-custom... of the Unicomp Customizer / Space Saver, which are modern Model Ms.

The other question is: how common will generation of long form text be?

Probably common enough, especially in school settings. I tend to agree with the OP: unless we see some kind of neural interface (which doesn't appear especially likely to me, although I'd love to be wrong), I don't see keyboards disappearing.

skeltoac
The last thing anybody should want is a direct brain interface that prints whatever you happen to think.

Also, it's nice to be able to slap the backspace key really hard.

Say no to psychodongles.

wladimir
At least the first direct-brain interfaces won't work that way. They cannot recognize what you're thinking and transcribe it, that's way too hard. It'd be more analogous to having an extra limb (which you'll have to train extensively to be able to use it effectively) you can type/move the mouse with.

I'm fine with such direct brain interfaces, as long as they don't have to cut a hole in my head, or shave my hair off and put sticky stuff on my head :P

natnat
If something like this does come to exist, the easiest way to do it would probably be with electrodes attached to the skin around your vocal muscles. When we think in words, we make many of the muscle movements that that we make when speaking the same words. In fact, NASA has already implemented subvocal recognition and it's used for astronauts and fighter pilots. Unfortunately, placing the electrodes in the same exact place is difficult, and like regular speech recognition, error rates are still pretty high. It still has a lot of potential as a technology, though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subvocal_recognition

joshbuddy
Keyboards will be relegated to a specialist tool, something only a small number of people interact with. Much like paper books. I would predict voice recognition will supplant the keyboard as the most common means of entering text.

Basically, what showerst said.

rimantas
I don't get this "voice recognition" thing, at least I fail to see how it is superior to keyboard. It may have it's uses when your hands are already busy, but otherwise. Starbucks full of people talking to their computers? Cubicles full of people talking 8 hours a day?
showerst
In fairness, it's not all that uncommon for Starbucks to be full of people talking into thin air to no one (blue tooth cell phone headsets).

The (theoretical) advantage of voice recognition is that you can speak _much_ faster than you can type (except for a few exceptional cases) [1].

On the other hand, I don't think most people would be comfortable with speaking all day either, but things other than voice recognition could still replace the keyboard.

[1] https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Words_per_min...

wladimir
But isn't the speed advantage gone very soon as soon as you have to type non-english text such as programming languages and specific commands (which are a large part of using a computer, you don't only want to type the text, you also want to format it and move it around).

Try listening to http://www.linux.fm/ for more than three minutes and you'll get my point :)

wladimir
They've been saying this for... 20 years or so? Starting from the first PC soundcards?

Unless AI really takes leaps I'm sure this will not happen any time soon. Voice is too ambiguous to convert to text with sound only. The machine will really have to understand you.

Current voice recognition is really awkward and frustrating, and it's currently much easier to learn fast typing than fast voice input.

(and in addition to that there are the many practical drawbacks to voice recognition as voice elsewhere in this thread)

alisson
Can you imagine work on a environment where everybody is speaking to the PC? I'll be chaos :S If the keyboard is going to be substituted, please, it need to be something silence! Telepathy would be great :)
byoung2
I would imagine that keyboards with physical buttons might be replaced by touchscreens with tactile feedback and gesture recognition capability for lots of applications. Touchscreen keyboards have the advantage of being adaptable to different tasks, languages, etc.

Voice recognition is finally here from a technology standpoint...right now I use voice to input about half of my searches. email, and text messages on my Android phone. But on a computer when I have to code or write a page of text, a physical keyboard is the way to go.

I think the old keyboard will still be around for some time to come.

bryanlarsen
Your wording has made the poll meaningless, unfortunately. Of course keyboards will still be around in 20 years -- in museums if nothing else. Under the fold you use the word "ubiquitous". Keyboards aren't even ubiquitous now -- there are large parts of the world where computers (thus traditional keyboards) aren't common.

Here's a couple of more tightly worded questions for suggestions:

- will a traditional qwerty keyboard be present in the majority of American homes?

- will a qwerty keyboard sit on the desk on most office workers not doing IT duties?

dasil003
In 20 years the United States could be well on its way to becoming a third world backwater.
bryanlarsen
Doesn't affect the question much, though. Even today, most third world backwaters have ubiquitous mobile phones. In 20 years, material goods will be common in third world backwaters. Healthy food, quality education and good healthcare probably won't be. Of course, by those measures, America is already halfway there, according to pundits...
mechanical_fish
Not unless they give me a soundproof private office.

I wish dictation were so efficient that it would be clearly worthwhile for every company to spring for soundproof private offices. But it isn't and they don't.

Meanwhile, even in my isolation-tank dream world I'd still want to be able to work in public, or in meetings, for a portion of every day. And that requires a keyboard.

JanezStupar
They'd just give you throat-mics.

Sorry your dream got shafted again.

migrochefort
Yes, but they won't be traditional QWERTY keyboard. Ergonomic keyboards (like the Kinesis Advantage) will replace traditionala keyboards and the QWERTY layout will quickly disappear.

I also think that both physical and virtual keyboards will disappear from mobile device, since it makes no sense to use a layout designed to type with then fingers on a tiny screen.

dochtman
I'm very much hoping we have something like Emotiv (http://www.emotiv.com/) for text entry by then.

(They have one promising competitor, I forget what their name was.)

michaelty
Will emacs be around in 20 years?
wlievens
Will vi be around in 20 years?
51Cards
Yes, definitely. I have pondered this fairly extensively but off the top of my head I'll try to remember some of my conclusions.

- ergonomics - holding arms up to a touchscreen for long periods is tiring

- tactile feedback... touchscreen keyboards lack it

- freedom of positioning... at least in desktop machines, they keyboard can be positioned independent of the display for comfort

- privacy... voice recognition is cool but I really don't want to be writing my girlfriend a love letter by voice while sitting on an airplane

- speed and accuracy... voice recognition will eventually match/surpass this but so far I haven't seen any other form of 'physical text input" that matches a good touch typist.

All said though, of course keyboards are going to occupy a smaller slice if the "input duty" than they do now. We're already coming up with nifty ways to input small requests, text messages, commands, etc. But I don't expect to ever see a "Scotty" moment in my lifetime...

"Oh, a keyboard... how quaint."

edit: one more thought... what will kill the keyboard? The day computers can accurately read our thoughts. When I can purely think input, then keyboards will be in trouble. As long as we have to use physical actions for expression, the keyboard is pretty safe.

Natsu
I wonder if chorded keyboards will ever take off?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chorded_keyboard

You can use them with one hand and I've thought about trying them so that I could use the mouse with one hand and the keyboard with the other instead of having to switch back and forth, but they're not friendly to hunt-and-peck usage, so most people probably will never learn to use one.

Sizlak
How would we use vim if there were no keyboards?
hrktb
I think we need a definition of what's a PC. A lot of people use a laptop as their main machine but it seems this is about fixed machines.

Even then, I have a closet server and used to have a machine hooked to the TV. are these PCs too? For a machine in the living room, I'd love kinect like voice recognition 100times over a keyboard(google or youtube shouldn't need more).

On a tablet or laptop, apart from programming or serious work, I'd prefer handwriting recognition if it was acurate enough, and I'm sure a lot of people who don't type daily on a keyboard would too.If mobile devices continue to grow, 20 years to get something usable on the desktop seems realistic to me.

I guess keyboards will still be around, but for most daily uses I expect other input forms to be privileged. So ubiquitous, no.

wlievens
Yes, absolutely. My typing efficiency (compared to a good keyboard) on a touch screen is like 20% at most.

We may see alternatives to the current 'static' keyboards though: displays on the keys (I know...), malleable form, flatter, whatever.

bemmu
I would guess there might be some way to think-type. I don't mean software reading your inner dialogue, but probably something more near to actually moving your muscles except in such a light way that nothing is visible. Something similar to imagining yourself typing, but not actually moving your fingers, instead the computer just recognizing "oh, he's about to type X. here, let's output X before the finger movement actually begins".