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Ask HN: What should Western intelligence do in Hong Kong?

5 points by high_derivative ↗ HN
This question is not on whether it's desirable for China to collapse, but the hypothetical question: What should e.g. the CIA do if its goal were to destabilize and ultimately bring down China?

For example, undercover agents shooting HK police would likely be far too blunt and lose public support. Now. Once the PLA goes in, anything might go.

There must be lots of analysis into strategies how one should optimally escalate these situations without going too far too quickly. What are they?

6 comments

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stuqqq
Nothing. China has been fooling its people by redirecting its inner conflicts to foreign countries. Whenever there is a protest, the government will create conspiracies that foreign governments were behind them. They justify their ruling by saying they are the defenders against foreign invasion. Stay out of it. Don’t give them excuses for what’s happening. It will collapse from the inside.
AnimalMuppet
> It will collapse from the inside.

Or else it won't. But by messing from the outside, we decrease the odds that it collapses, rather than increase them.

auganov
You could study CIA's support for anti-communist movements in the eastern block during the Reagan administration. A lot of it is still classified (and many disagree on its effectiveness) but there are a few books on the topic.
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throw51319
HK is too isolated from the mainland to cause a chain reaction there. So the only way to get China to allow them to have democracy is to make the cost of a crackdown greater than the cost of retreating for the communist party's calculations. I would say the outside influences would want to keep it purely peaceful for as long as possible. Any big violence would give the chinese the opportunity to crush them under a plausible reason. Let it build up until the HK government is forced to incrementally support the HK people.
bjourne
There was a French documentary that partly dealt with American influence on the Ukrainian revolution: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KfD_CaSIxmQ If Western intelligence were involved, they should do the same thing since the revolution was a success. Big if - I have no idea if Western intelligence were involved. So much is propaganda these days making it hard to know what is actually going on.