Ask HN: Is a Recession Coming?

What exactly is going well? 3 years ago the economy was growing - jobs where increasing rapidly - farmers where selling soybeans - the military was building new housing and schools for troop's families which translates into local jobs. The debt was large from fighting a major recession but flattening. Now - our debt is accelerating (tax cuts), yields keep inverting (10yr at a higher percentage than 30 yr). The stock market has been a roller coaster since 2018 as changes in gov't policy started to take hold. Job creation flat and will most likely turn negative. Don't listen to the media - learn to read the numbers yourself.

If a recession is not coming (ever?) then the economically impossible has been achieved. Never a bad idea to sock away a little money before it rains.

Well in terms of the tech industry, there is a on going trend that many unprofitable tech companies are rushing their IPOs everywhere on the stock market and this is perhaps due to many possible actions such as tech regulation or many investors won't fund startups because of the established competition, profitability concerns, etc.

The uncertainty of the US-China trade war is making many investors concerned about the economy and the UK is still playing Deal or No Deal with leaving the EU after 3 years of 'negotiations'. If the UK leaves without a deal, I won't be surprised if this causes a recession, at least in the UK. But the trade war, the IPO rush and possible regulation is perhaps an indicator of a global one in the tech industry.

The media are the same ones who brought us the Kardashians. Find and read some books.

No. We are in a negative interest rate regime (never happened before), and in the beginning of the fourth industrial revolution (never happened before).

The best indicator for a recession is the stock market, all the rest are clickbait news for eyeballs.

I firmly believe that tech would actually not enter a recession at all, since it is the only part of the economy that is growing.

Calculated Risk has a good record on these calls... really. He says not this year. https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/update-predicting...

Yes. There will be recessions and periods of growth. The economy is a chaotic non deterministic system. It is never stable and is not predictable. It’s not homogenous either. Some sectors grow while others contract.

When the next recession comes nobody knows. I think the worry is that when the next haircut on stocks happens the Fed can’t stimulate the economy with interest rates because they’re already zero bound. That could mean a long recession and slow recovery, and possibly catastrophic considering that most Americans choose to put all their retirement savings in the stock market.

Historically, there have been huge stock crashes periodically. You could wake up tomorrow and see a 10-20% drop in stocks for multiple days. It’s happened before.

The economy has a track record of being cyclical, so if you ask a question whether a recession is coming on any day the answer would be - 'Yes, eventually'. But recessions correct themselves and after every recession we've seen growth cycle which takes the economy to new heights.

The only recourse humans have is to continue with their lives without paying heed to what's in vogue in the news cycle.

Recessions come and go but it's good to remember that historically not all recessions are like great recessions in 2007/2008.

Normal recessions can happen and if there is no systemic risk such as with mortgages in 2008 then the impact is not so catastrophic.

Unemployment will go up, GDP will probably slip into negative number for 2-3 quarters, companies stop hiring / fire some people, government probably reacts with some fiscal stimulus.

But it might be that a normal recession like that won't affect most people here working in Silicon Valley at all as those jobs probably won't disappear and companies like Google/Facebook will not be affected by recession too much.

My take is The American Media is in bed with the Democratic Party, and will say what they are told to, in an attempt to gain control and wrest our freedoms away from us.

The whole recession spiel (which "amazingly" is reported by an array of different companies, often using the same verbage--just like script which was given to them) is obviously yet another make believe story.

Is a recession coming? Yes.

Will it be in the next 6 monthes, no. A recession is usually quantified by 2 quarters of negative growth.

Will it be in the next year? Maybe. Global economies have been slowing down and so its possible.

Will there be one in the next 100 years. Yes. Here is a list of recessions that have happened since the inception of the US https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_Unit.... People are humans and make mistakes. Sometimes the things we thought would help to make the economy grow actually make it shrink.

Unless you are interested in being involved in public policy, there isn't much to be concerned with here. All you can do is find something you enjoy doing that makes people better off. Keep doing it until you master it. If you do these things it won't matter if the pundits on TV are saying that the world is ending, you will be alright.

Yes, a recession will happen. So will the post-recession recovery period. It’s going to hurt. 98 out of 100 stocks during the 2008 Great Recession lost people money. At the same time recessions don’t last long [1], and it’s a great opportunity to buy, whether it’s stocks or homes.

I was just looking into the last recession, and I found that the market was wrong, and overreacted about a lot of stocks during that time [2]. Even AIG, the villain that caused the crash and was bailed out by the government, was one of the top performers during the recovery.

Try to have a balanced approach - cash + defensive assets (like gold and household staple stocks) + not selling all your stock.

[1] 2008 Great Recession: 1.5 years; 2000 dot com bubble: 8 months; early 1990s recession: 8 months

[2] https://shan.io/writing/learnings-from-the-2008-great-recess...