I find these surveys in all their forms to be garbage, whatever the purported outcome is. They're almost always online (because it's no-name, no-budget survey companies), self-selecting surveys, and they seldom have any relationship to reality. Lazy bloggers use it to fluff up coverage.
I have demolished more surveys than I care to explain. I just have lost the desire to point out how naive people are for falling for this nonsense again, and again, and again.
But again -- let's revisit it in a couple of months, after those millions of Android users have switched.
The survey is in all likelihood garbage (i.e. doesn’t tell us anything about how successful or unsuccessful the iPhone will be on Verizon), we don’t even have to talk about that. I’m talking about you saying “ […] defensive Apple fans. Sad how well the tactic works.”
These surveys pander to a certain audience. Just had to check, and sure enough it's on Apple Insider, just as it will be or already is on most Apple-related blogs. These survey companies skip the middle man and often target the Apple community directly, because it is certain attention. The Apple community is simply too addicted to these things, with no discretion or filter.
We've had survey, after survey, after survey, foretelling doom and gloom for Android. All while actual metrics have shown it gaining marketshare by leaps and bounds. If I have to pick between reality and "what a self-selected group picks on an online form, usually to get offered a $5 Amazon certificate or the like", I'll choose the former.
My observation stands. Just noticed that the original poster has the email address "iphone". Indeed.
The title is incorrect. The survey is of 700 AT&T and Verizon users. Also the 44% figure comes from this:
> Among Android owners, 44% are either very likely (19%) or somewhat likely (25%) to buy an iPhone on Feb. 10.
Not all of these will actually do that of course but it does show there is definite excitement about this phone, so much so that (IMHO) you will see a noticeable impact on the Q1 smartphone shipments and I definitely think Verizon will sell 10-20M+ of these in the first half, easily.
There is serious pent up demand for the iPhone in the US due to carrier lock-In. To argue this won't have a significant impact is... brave.
I also suspect that there will be a noticeable impact on Q1 iPhone sales but, if this data is in fact credible at all, I would estimate the level of interest in quickly switching to the iPhone is much closer to the 19% "very likely" than the 44% "somewhat or very likely." Speculating about (and unfairly generalizing) these respondents' previous decisions regarding phone purchases makes me think they are relatively "sticky" in their purchase decisions and will be unlikely to drop everything and get an iPhone on day 1.
Consider that when these current Verizon subscribers/Android users/iPhone aspirers made their most recent smartphone purchase, the iPhone was already a mature product and they likely considered two options:
1. Stay with Verizon and get an Android phone.
2. Switch to AT&T and get an iPhone.
Those who are now Verizon/Android consumers all demonstrated a preference for staying with their preferred network over adopting the iPhone, indicating a (relatively) weaker preference for the iPhone compared to similar customers who switched at that point to AT&T. Those who switched were more likely to have made a disruptive decision to terminate an existing contract early, whereas those staying with Verizon likely made a status quo choice to stay with their current provider. Opting to stay with Verizon and play the "wait-and-see" game on the iPhone, those claiming to be "somewhat likely" to switch to the iPhone have already considered making the switch once and chose not to. I find it unlikely that these consumers will be turning out in massive numbers on day 1 to get an iPhone.
All of this is not intended to question that releasing the iPhone on Verizon does pose a challenge to Android. I simply believe that the massive flight to iPhones is not a fait accompli and will play out over the course of several months or a year, rather than on February 10. This suggests that the makers of Android devices have a short window in which to improve their competitive posture, in the form of more aggressive pricing or new products with better features, in the few months after the Verizon rollout.
What the actual number you have to care about is new subscribers. New subscribers to AT&T for iphone 4 was less than 10% last quarter.
Carriers will always choose those devices that they 'think' can give a new subscribers rate boost, hence Nokia failing in the US for some time with out-of-date-ui.
If Verizon iphone results in 10% or more new subscribers than Verizon made the right decision as they still will than have the new subscriber rate from android sales as well. If the rate does not get higher than 10% than Verizon iPhone move is a loss for Verizon counting the subsidies it pays to Apple.
Conversely AT&T will now use android to increase their new subscriber rates.
Also, in that mix android has LTE devices coming and Apple still has not launched an LTE iphone.
> We're not familiar with the work of uSamp, a high-tech online research firm based in Los Angeles, but if the results of the survey they released last week are accurate...
Good to see Fortune doing their journalistic duty and checking the integrity of their sources.
Would anybody mind to actually read the table and numbers? At the very bottom of the tiny table, in the second-last row: After all considerations, people that would still switch ("No, I still plan to switch") is 21% (Ad) and 28% (BB) - that is one quarter in total, at best, and definitely not 44%... And even then, the sample size of those people in total are 87 users; Just how representative is that? What a joke...
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[ 2.6 ms ] story [ 56.2 ms ] threadSo I guess Android is done then. Lets shut her down! Or we could just wait and see how it pans out.
I find these surveys in all their forms to be garbage, whatever the purported outcome is. They're almost always online (because it's no-name, no-budget survey companies), self-selecting surveys, and they seldom have any relationship to reality. Lazy bloggers use it to fluff up coverage.
Funny that the Fortune guy posted it given that I called him out for a prior one - http://blog.yafla.com/Lazy_Surveys_Enable_A_Lazy_Press/
I have demolished more surveys than I care to explain. I just have lost the desire to point out how naive people are for falling for this nonsense again, and again, and again.
But again -- let's revisit it in a couple of months, after those millions of Android users have switched.
The survey is in all likelihood garbage (i.e. doesn’t tell us anything about how successful or unsuccessful the iPhone will be on Verizon), we don’t even have to talk about that. I’m talking about you saying “ […] defensive Apple fans. Sad how well the tactic works.”
Why do you need to write crap like that?
We've had survey, after survey, after survey, foretelling doom and gloom for Android. All while actual metrics have shown it gaining marketshare by leaps and bounds. If I have to pick between reality and "what a self-selected group picks on an online form, usually to get offered a $5 Amazon certificate or the like", I'll choose the former.
My observation stands. Just noticed that the original poster has the email address "iphone". Indeed.
> Among Android owners, 44% are either very likely (19%) or somewhat likely (25%) to buy an iPhone on Feb. 10.
Not all of these will actually do that of course but it does show there is definite excitement about this phone, so much so that (IMHO) you will see a noticeable impact on the Q1 smartphone shipments and I definitely think Verizon will sell 10-20M+ of these in the first half, easily.
There is serious pent up demand for the iPhone in the US due to carrier lock-In. To argue this won't have a significant impact is... brave.
Consider that when these current Verizon subscribers/Android users/iPhone aspirers made their most recent smartphone purchase, the iPhone was already a mature product and they likely considered two options:
1. Stay with Verizon and get an Android phone. 2. Switch to AT&T and get an iPhone.
Those who are now Verizon/Android consumers all demonstrated a preference for staying with their preferred network over adopting the iPhone, indicating a (relatively) weaker preference for the iPhone compared to similar customers who switched at that point to AT&T. Those who switched were more likely to have made a disruptive decision to terminate an existing contract early, whereas those staying with Verizon likely made a status quo choice to stay with their current provider. Opting to stay with Verizon and play the "wait-and-see" game on the iPhone, those claiming to be "somewhat likely" to switch to the iPhone have already considered making the switch once and chose not to. I find it unlikely that these consumers will be turning out in massive numbers on day 1 to get an iPhone.
All of this is not intended to question that releasing the iPhone on Verizon does pose a challenge to Android. I simply believe that the massive flight to iPhones is not a fait accompli and will play out over the course of several months or a year, rather than on February 10. This suggests that the makers of Android devices have a short window in which to improve their competitive posture, in the form of more aggressive pricing or new products with better features, in the few months after the Verizon rollout.
kb
What the actual number you have to care about is new subscribers. New subscribers to AT&T for iphone 4 was less than 10% last quarter.
Carriers will always choose those devices that they 'think' can give a new subscribers rate boost, hence Nokia failing in the US for some time with out-of-date-ui.
If Verizon iphone results in 10% or more new subscribers than Verizon made the right decision as they still will than have the new subscriber rate from android sales as well. If the rate does not get higher than 10% than Verizon iPhone move is a loss for Verizon counting the subsidies it pays to Apple.
Conversely AT&T will now use android to increase their new subscriber rates.
Also, in that mix android has LTE devices coming and Apple still has not launched an LTE iphone.
Is that from the carriers perspective or is that also the number Apple and Google care about? Doesn’t seem like it, does it?
Also, 10 percent more compared to what?
Good to see Fortune doing their journalistic duty and checking the integrity of their sources.